Mounting concern in the EU about Indian black operations targeting dissidents

BLACK OPERATIONS, WHICH AIM to liquidate targeted individuals, are once again the subject of various reports. The primary focus tends to be on Russian intelligence agencies targeting alleged traitors worldwide. Michael Weiss, US publisher of The Insider, spoke in a recent interview of “more than 60 mysterious deaths of Putin’s enemies in Russia and Europe since the Ukraine war began”.

Somewhat-less-black operations, in which individuals —usually living abroad— are not killed, but intimidated, persecuted, threatened, or roughed up, appear to be increasingly utilized as a tool by certain states that have little tolerance for domestic political opposition. Ken McCallum, Director General of Britain’s Security Service (MI5), stated on 8 October 2024 that, “since January 2022, with police partners, we have responded to twenty Iran-backed plots presenting potentially lethal threats to British citizens and UK residents”.

Back in September 2023, The Guardian reported having spoken to 15 Iranian activists living in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland and Sweden, who were being persecuted and intimidated, or had been threatened in various ways by the Iranian regime’s henchmen and its intelligence services. There are numerous similar examples of journalists and dissidents who have been a thorn in the side of the Turkish government for several years now. In addition to threats and violence, there are reports of abductions by Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT). In recent years, China too has increasingly relied on intimidation directly in the West, and has also engaged Western investigators and helpers for this purpose.

One concerning development is the fact that these states are apparently increasingly resorting to the help of members of Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs (OMCG), members of drug cartels, and other criminals. Regardless of whether it is for purposes of sabotage, threats, or assassinations, shady figures —typically apolitical— are undertaking missions on behalf of the intelligence agencies of authoritarian states on European soil.

The Case of India

Another country that has been in the spotlight for some time is India, which has historically maintained a low profile in the West, in terms of black operations. Western intelligence agencies could have predicted that there would be an escalation —i.e. Indian black operations on Western soil— which could lead to the liquidation of alleged or actual terrorists. If one observes the reports of Indian intelligence agencies and analysts on the activities of its mortal enemy, Pakistan, and its intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), it quickly becomes apparent that India is less and less willing to tolerate what it regards as terrorism sponsored by Pakistan. This applies particularly to individuals and organizations operating from abroad.

The activities of various separatist movements in Western countries are a source of ire for the Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), which is India’s main external intelligence agency. These include the Khalistan Movement, which has long been calling for an independent Sikh state in the Punjab. They also include organizations that are monitored by Western intelligence services, such as Babbar Khalsa International (BKI), or Khalistan Tiger Force.

The frequency with which Germany —to take one example— has been appearing in Indian analyses as a place of retreat and refuge for separatists for many years should alert the relevant authorities —especially after recent clashes with the RAW. Already in 2015, various reports in India accused the ISI of supporting pro-Khalistan organizations abroad. According to the reports, ISI financed radical organizations, such as the BKI, in Germany and Canada, among others. By 2015, Indian intelligence agencies had compiled a comprehensive report, which claimed that Germany had become the primary refuge for members of the BKI and similar groups. Extensive recruitment campaigns were being carried out in Germany, according to the 2015 report.

Since that time the activities of the RAW in Germany have been publicly examined by the media and German intelligence agencies on more than one occasion. Indian intelligence agents have been repeatedly arrested for monitoring the Sikh diaspora and infiltrating opposition Kashmiri groups. Some of the reports mention India’s domestic intelligence agency, the Intelligence Bureau (IB), whose accredited liaison officers also conduct espionage operations against the aforementioned targets abroad.

Precursors to Escalation

The question, however, is whether such activities are being sufficiently analyzed and whether the right conclusions are drawn from them —especially as they could be precursors to an impending escalation. Moreover, it is imperative and critical that such precursors should lead to a set of clear limits being imposed on India’s RAW and IB, as well as on the intelligence agencies of states like Russia or Turkey.

An undated Indian report on the International Sikh Youth Federation (ISYF) alleges that the Gurdwara on Ross Road, in Vancouver, British Columbia, played a pivotal role in the ISYF’s activities in Canada. On 18 June 2023, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a prominent activist of the Khalistan movement, was liquidated at that exact location.

The public statement made by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on behalf of the Canadian government on 18 September 2023, has led to the perception of India as a relevant player in this and other illegal activities. Among other things, Trudeau stated in his speech in the Canadian Parliament: “Canadian security agencies have been actively pursuing credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the Government of India and the killing of a Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar […]. Any involvement of a foreign government in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil is an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty. It is contrary to the fundamental rules by which free, open and democratic societies conduct themselves […]. As you would expect, we have been working closely and coordinating with our allies on this very serious matter”.

This marked the beginning of a dispute between Canada and India that continues to this day, involving the mutual expulsion of diplomats and other fierce exchanges of blows between the two countries. This past October, during a public hearing on foreign influence campaigns in Canadian domestic politics, Trudeau accused the Indian government “of rebuffing efforts to cooperate and causing the increasingly bitter public feud that resulted in the mutual expulsion of senior diplomats”.

On 14 October 2024, a statement by the Canadian police revealed that India also used criminals to target and liquidate people living abroad, which it deemed undesirable. According to the statement, “organized crime groups like the Bishnoi group” are used in Canada in the service of India. They were referring to the activities of Lawrence Bishnoi, a notorious criminal.

A Wider Phenomenon

In 17 October 2024, a press release issued by judicial authorities in the United States once again made it clear that the Canadian-Indian dispute was not just a skirmish between Trudeau and his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi. Rather, it was a strategy that the West was increasingly having to deal with —and not just in relation to India. The official statement was made by: “Damian Williams, United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York; Merrick B. Garland, Attorney General of the United States; Anne Milgram, Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration; Christopher A. Wray, Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation ([FBI); Matthew G. Olsen, Assistant Attorney General for National Security; and James E. Dennehy, Assistant Director of the FBI’s New York Field Office”. It speaks of “murder-for-hire and money-laundering charges against Indian government employee VIKASH YADAV, also known as ‘Vikas’, also known as ‘Amanat’, in connection with his role in leading a foiled plot to assassinate a U.S. citizen in New York City”.

The official court documents show details of RAW’s actions on American soil, including the hiring of an Indian national involved in illegal international drug and arms trade. The alleged target was Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, leader of the organization Sikhs for Justice in the United States. According to the documents, the accused RAW agent had also hired a team of contract killers to liquidate Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. This dramatic development for India has obviously led to the RAW suspending all operations in the United States for the time being.

The liquidation of Sukhdool Singh Gill in September 2023, also in Canada, reveals the fundamental contradictions in the perception of the actors involved: Canada rightly insists on the inviolability of its national territory. The victim was portrayed by some as a mere political activist of the Khalistan movement. India, on the other hand, described the victim as a “gangster who was involved with terrorist groups and arms trafficking. His death was the result of inter-gang rivalry”.

The aforementioned Bishnoi group have claimed responsibility for Gill’s liquidation. Canadian authorities have recognized the growing problem of Indian organized crime as an issue of concern for quite some time. Numerous cases and investigations can be found on the website of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police. However, it is difficult to trace the precise connection between these criminal organizations and state actors. The topic also represents a political minefield. Additionally, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) has to deal with Iranian death threats against Iranian dissidents in Canada.

Important First Steps

Considering the substantial number of activists, organizations, and meeting places that form the Sikh political spectrum in Europe, an escalation should be expected to occur at any time, especially in view of current developments: more and more states seem to consider the targeted killings of undesirable individuals abroad as an alternative means of foreign policy. It is questionable that the Western security authorities are in a position to successfully contain this threat, given the scarcity of resources. A first important step, which has obviously yet to be taken, would be the comprehensive, Europe-wide cataloguing of those individuals and organizations that have been particularly targeted in the past, due to their perceived radical nature. This would allow European security authorities to pool their resources, at least in part.

However, two aspects would have to be taken into account in such a project: Canada is a member of the Five Eyes alliance and therefore has access to a substantial body of classified information. No European Union (EU) member state has this privilege. The EU states must, therefore, procure the relevant intelligence themselves and make the necessary resources available —especially in view of the incoming administration in Washington.  For years, there have been repeated ideas and proposals as to how the EU could improve in these matters. Most recently, it was the ex-Finnish President Sauli Niinistö. He “reckons the EU needs its own intelligence agency to help countries fend off threats, saboteurs and foreign agents operating in capitals across the continent through more information sharing”. So far, however, these ideas have failed.

In addition, Germany, still the most powerful EU state, and also home for numerous Sikhs, has a problem: not only has its governing coalition fallen apart, but its intelligence agencies have been unsuccessfully engaged in dismantling their internal administrative bureaucracy for many years. Moreover, the heads of these agencies are administrative lawyers, rather than practitioners. Hence, they and the German legislature have been highly successful in expanding comprehensive legal control and restricting their own intelligence work. Whether this can generate the necessary information base is highly questionable.

And finally: the West is positioning itself vis-à-vis China, which means it is —in a way— dependent on India. It is therefore more realistic to assume that Indian black operations, such as those briefly described above, will not be prevented in Europe in the long run.

► Author: Dr. Stephan Blancke | Date: 11 December 2024 | Permalink

*Dr. Stephan Blancke is a political scientist and analyst whose research focuses on international state and non-state intelligence. He has researched Cyber Warfare in Geneva and worked in an Intelligence & Analysis unit at the UK Home Office. He also worked at the Centre for Science & Security Studies (CSSS) at King’s College London in the field of proliferation and illicit procurement networks. Since November 2022, he has been an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London. Dr Blancke writes for Jane’s Intelligence Review, Intelligence Online, NK News, and others. He has published on Chinese and North Korean espionage, extremism and terrorism, as well as illegal trade on the dark web.