Israelis with high-level clearances betted on military operations on Polymarket
February 23, 2026 2 Comments
A CIVILIAN AND A reservist with high-level classified access used Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confidential information to place bets on Polymarket regarding future Israeli military operations. Polymarket is among the most prominent platforms in the rapidly emerging cryptocurrency-based prediction market sector.
Polymarket users are invited to bet “yes” or “no” on whether specific events will occur. These events may relate to political, sporting, cultural, security, environmental, or other fields. Prediction market platforms such as Polymarket match buyers and sellers for each event and hold the funds until the event occurs.
An Israeli court permitted publication that the two individuals were identified during a joint operation conducted by the Israel Security Agency (ISA) and the police. According to the indictment, the civilian and the reservist are charged with serious security offenses, alleging that they placed bets on the Polymarket website based on classified military information. The indictment further states that, in the course of their IDF duties, they were exposed to the inside information on which they relied when making bets. The reservist had access to classified intelligence concerning future IDF operations, and the civilian opened an account on Polymarket and placed the bets.
At the conclusion of the investigation, after an evidentiary foundation had been established against the civilian and the reservist, the prosecutor’s office indicted them on charges of serious security offenses, bribery offenses, and obstruction of justice. According to a formal statement: “It should be noted that in June 2025, the two successfully bet on the occurrence of four security events in Israel related to Operation ‘Am Kalavi’ (the Israeli attack on Iran in June 2025). They wagered tens of thousands of dollars and were correct, with remarkable accuracy, in predicting: Israel will attack Iran on Friday; Israel will attack Iran by the end of June 2025; Israel will announce the end of the operation in Iran by July; Israel will attack Iran before July.” According to one source, they earned $150,000.
It was further stated that: “the execution of such bets, relying on secret and classified information, poses a real security risk to the activities of the IDF and to state security. The State of Israel views the acts attributed to the defendants with great severity and will act resolutely to thwart and bring to justice any person involved in the illegal use of classified information.” According to the findings of the investigation, no operational harm resulted from the Israeli attack on Iran in June 2025. The statement added: “The IDF will not tolerate this type of conduct. Following the incident, steps were taken, and procedures will be tightened across all IDF units to prevent similar incidents from recurring.”
The remaining details of the affair remain prohibited from publication for security reasons.
► Author: Avner Barnea* | Date: 23 February 2026 | Permalink
* Dr. Avner Barnea is a research fellow at the National Security Studies Center of the University of Haifa in Israel. He served as a senior officer in the Israel Security Agency (ISA). He is the author of We Never Expected That: A Comparative Study of Failures in National and Business Intelligence (Lexington Books, 2021).
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Analysis: Escalation Without Endgame and the Limits of Defeating Iran
March 3, 2026 by Joseph Fitsanakis 1 Comment
Iran is Strategically Depleted and Vulnerable
Decades of crippling sanctions have ruined Iran’s economy and demoralized its population, causing an already polarized society to further-disintegrate. Outside of a small population of religious zealots, Iranians have little interest in martyrdom, and very few are willing to die for a regime that most see as politically and ideologically bankrupt. The stunning degree of the regime’s penetration by Israeli and American intelligence agencies is indicative of the disillusionment of ruling elites, let alone rank-and-file functionaries.
Militarily, this is hardly a war between equals. Even before bombs started falling in Tehran on February 28, Iran’s armed forces and its elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had been severely degraded by prior military engagements with the U.S. and Israel. Even with the assistance of its proxies and allies, Iran is demonstrably unable to match the military and intelligence resources of its opponents. As many have noted, Tehran’s retaliatory strikes appear to emphasize economic disruption and psychological pressure on civilian populations. But the marked inconsistency in the scale and delivery of Iran’s retaliatory attacks suggests that it is struggling to respond in a coherent fashion.
Russia, meanwhile, is nowhere to be seen. As in the cases of Venezuela and Cuba, Moscow has restricted its response to this crisis to diplomatic condemnations and offers to mediate, rather than offering military assistance to its Middle Eastern ally. This is hardly surprising, given Russia’s broader strategic priorities and its desire to further its ongoing expansionist goals in Europe by avoid overextension elsewhere.
Iran is weak, exhausted, alone. It is teetering on the edge. Yet, instead of cheering, this appears to trouble even seasoned Iran hawks like John Bolton, Trump’s onetime national security adviser. A veteran Republican, Bolton is probably the most consistent and vociferous Iran critic in the Western Hemisphere. The Iranian government has actively planned to assassinate him in recent years. But in a recent interview, Bolton cautioned about the lack of planning behind Washington’s latest adventurism in the Middle East and waned that the current situation may “deepen conflict, create a dangerous power vacuum, and purge the [entire Middle East] into turmoil”. What is Bolton seeing that Trump’s inner circle is not?
This War Will Not End Soon
American air campaigns have a demonstrated history of obliterating Washington’s tactical targets and severely disrupting its adversaries. Iran is unlikely to prove an exception to this rule. However, air campaigns—no matter how sophisticated—cannot by themselves reorder domestic politics and build long-lasting political outcomes. It follows that, despite delivering a series of indisputable tactical successes, including the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader and senior members of his inner circle, American and Israeli airpower cannot by itself ensure a pro-Western outcome in Iran.
Obliterating the Iranian regime’s military capabilities and degrading its ability to dispense violence against its own population is likely to create a power vacuum. But that is not the same as managing the ensuing political fallout. Even if the regime falls—which is not the likeliest scenario—its successor is unlikely to be friendly to the U.S. or Israel. For over a century, Iran has been permeated by a political culture shaped by fervent nationalism, revolutionary narratives and resistance against foreign intervention. This has been particularly so since 1979, with the theocratic regime building the nation’s identity around the idea of its resistance to the “Great Satan” and its regional allies, including Israel and Saudi Arabia. This identity permeates Iran’s security apparatus, its state institutions and its education system. Even anti-regime Iranians—including the student demonstrators who cheered Ayatollah Khamenei’s demise—espouse core elements of that narrative. Read more of this post
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