Iran has mostly replenished its missile stockpiles: Western intelligence

June 15, 2026 by 5 Comments

Iran War 2026IRAN USED THE EIGHT-week ceasefire with the United States and Israel to replenish its military arsenal to at least three-quarters of its pre-war levels, according to Western intelligence estimates. Tehran has been able to incorporate substantial supplies of Russian-built weapons to its firepower and could easily reach 100 percent of its pre-war arsenal capacity soon, according to reports.

The latest estimates directly contradict earlier assessments by the administration of US President Donald Trump, which claims Iran’s military firepower has been obliterated in the past three months. In March, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that Iran’s offensive capability had been reduced by as much as 90 percent. Earlier this month, President Trump claimed that Iran’s missile arsenal stood at 60 percent of its pre-war level.

However, Western intelligence estimates now suggest that the Iranian regime’s ability to replenish its military arsenal has been far more advanced than presumed by its adversaries. In a related development, the Reuters news agency reported last week that the United Arab Emirates directly approached Tehran and offered to pay it in return for not being attacked again.

According to Reuters, the UAE agreed to give Iran between $10 and $20 billion in return for halting its attacks on the Gulf state. The news agency claimed that $3 billion of the earmarked funds had already been delivered to Tehran. In a subsequent statement, the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed the Reuters report as “entirely false and unfounded” and stated that no funds had been “released, transferred or facilitated through the UAE”.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 15 June 2026 | Permalink

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China is now sending missiles to Iran, according to US intelligence agencies

April 13, 2026 by 11 Comments

MANPAD missileTHERE IS MOUNTING EVIDENCE to suggest that the government of China may be supplying missiles to the Iranian armed forces, according to American intelligence agencies. Combined with prior reports about alleged Russian intelligence assistance to Iran, these latest indicators may demonstrate that China and Russia are aiding the Iranian military in a systematic and coordinated fashion in order to contribute to an American strategic defeat in the Middle East.

On Saturday, the US-based international television network CNN cited “three people familiar with recent intelligence assessment” in reporting that China was preparing to deliver to Iran several shipments of shoulder-fired anti-air missile systems, known as MANPADs. These missile systems are highly prized in both low- and high-intensity conflicts because they give individual soldiers a cheap, portable way to destroy multimillion-dollar aircraft. Their low cost and ease of concealment allow ambush-style attacks that are difficult to detect, forcing enemy pilots to fly higher or avoid certain areas. Thus, if utilized appropriately, MANPAD weapons can effectively strip an opponent of their low-altitude air superiority.

Later on Saturday, a report in The New York Times claimed that United States intelligence agencies have obtained evidence that China may have already sent at least one shipment of MANPADs to Iran. The paper noted that the intelligence collected is “not definitive” and that there is no evidence to suggest that the Iranians have received the shipment of missiles from China, or that they have deployed these weapons on the battlefield.

If it is verified, however, the intelligence may indicate that the Chinese are abandoning their traditional reluctance to supply Iran with finished or fully assembled weapons systems—especially for use against the United States armed forces. In the past, China has used a number of state-controlled export companies to supply Iran with fuel, chemicals and hardware components that can, under certain circumstances, be used to aid Iran’s military effort.

If China were to begin to systematically supply Iran with missiles and other weapons systems, it could significantly alter the course of the ongoing conflict between the Islamic Republic and the United States-Israeli alliance. Much of the course of this war depends on the ability of each side to maintain its supply of weapons—especially offensive and defensive missiles, or other interceptor ammunition.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 13 April 2026 | Permalink

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The Real War Is About To Begin: Iran Transitions to Full-Scale Insurgency

March 30, 2026 by 12 Comments

Iran War 2026THE IRAN WAR OPENED with a shock. In minutes, the United States and Israel struck deep into Iran’s command structure, killing nearly fifty senior figures—among them the Supreme Leader and much of the military high command. It was a ruthless display of intelligence, surveillance, and targeting at a level rarely seen in modern warfare. Russian forces only wish they could have achieved even a fraction of this effect in Ukraine in 2022. Had they done so, the war’s trajectory might have unfolded very differently. But this kind of operational success is exceptionally hard to deliver in warfare.

And yet, as Carl von Clausewitz cautioned centuries ago, the outcome of war is not governed by formulaic calculus. No matter how astounding, operational sophistication and technological prowess do not guarantee success. Instead of an immediate collapse, the decapitation of the Iranian regime appears to have produced a series of unpredictable second-order effects. At the very least, it physically eliminated Iran’s few pragmatic leaders who have historically favored restraint. Their demise effectively handed over power to the hardliners of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Moreover, the war appears to have paralyzed Iran’s domestic opposition, whose adherents may despise the regime but—unlike the U.S. and Israel—do not want to see their country break up into ethnic statelets.

Most importantly, the February 28 decapitation strike convinced Iran’s surviving leaders that this is an existential fight—not a limited confrontation like the Twelve-Day War. Today’s ruling Principalists in Iran differ sharply from the cosmopolitan, Western-educated elite of the 1960s and 1970s. They are largely provincial in origin, domestically rooted, and lack the international ties that once offered pathways of exit. They do not hold dual citizenships, do not maintain Q Quoteforeign residences, and few of them possess the linguistic or social capital to relocate abroad. Simply put, they have no viable exit. For them, defeat is not exile—it is annihilation. Under such conditions, the expectation is not capitulation, but resistance to the very end.

Activating the Iranian Asymmetric Doctrine

Starting in 2001, the campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq offered Iranian war planners a prolonged and unusually comprehensive vantage point from which to study the American way of war in their immediate neighborhood. For over two decades, the Iranians analyzed these methods, learned from them, and internalized their logic into their own asymmetric warfare doctrine. And now, having survived the February 28 decapitation attack, the Iranian regime has put that doctrine into operation. Iran’s asymmetric doctrine channels the state’s military, civilian, economic, and informational assets into a multi-domain, protracted insurgency campaign designed to inflict maximum pain on its enemies. In doing so, it rests on what is perhaps the Islamic Republic’s greatest asset: its asymmetric patience—i.e., its capacity to endure more physical and emotional torment than its Western opponents and their allies.

The Iranians refined their asymmetric patience skills during what they refer to as the “War of Holy Defense” (1980-1988), one of the 20th century’s longest conflicts and the deadliest conventional war ever fought in the developing world. The then-newly formed Islamic Republic suffered over 500,000 casualties—many of those due to exposure to chemical warfare—but managed to bring Saddam Hussein’s Western-backed Iraq into a standstill and force it into a truce. To do so, they even resorted to so-called “human wave assaults”, large masses of mostly unarmed youth who swarmed enemy positions and overwhelmed them by the sheer power of their number. That was largely how the Basij, the Iranian regime’s paramilitary street gangs that continue to operate in modern-day Iran, were initially formed.

Iran’s “Economy of Resistance”

On March 28, the Telegram channel belonging to the Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued an infographic titled “The Path to Defeating the Enemy in the Economic War”. The infographic reflects the Islamic Republic’s concept of “economy of resistance”, which was first developed in 2014 by Mojtaba Khamenei’s father, the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The central idea behind this concept is restructuring the Iranian economy, not simply to reduce its susceptibility to Western-imposed sanctions, but to allow it to stabilize and even develop. The goal of the economy of resistance is to prevent the destruction of the Islamic Republic and the Westernization of Iranian society. Through the economy of resistance doctrine, and with crucial help by China and Russia, Iran has largely managed to insulate its economy from the global economic system that is now reeling under Iran’s own asymmetric attacks. Read more of this post

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Classified US intelligence report suggests Iran regime unlikely to fall or change

March 9, 2026 by 11 Comments

Iran KhameneiA CLASSIFIED REPORT ISSUED two weeks ago by the United States National Intelligence Council (NIC) found that even a full-scale interstate war against Iran would be unlikely to dislodge or drastically alter the current regime. A summary of the report was revealed by The Washington Post, which cited three anonymous sources the paper said were intimately familiar with the report’s contents.

Composed of senior and highly respected intelligence analysts from across the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC), the NIC is tasked with producing classified strategic assessments on critical issues of concern to American decision-makers. Technically NIC reports represent the collective voice of all 18 intelligence agencies that make up the U.S. IC, and come as close as possible to the IC’s consensus view on pressing national security concerns.

According to The Washington Post, the NIC report outlines several scenarios for leadership succession in Iran, resulting from either a surgical “decapitation” campaign against specific elements of regime, or from a large-scale military assault against the entirety of the Iranian security state. It concludes that in both cases the Iranian regime is too entrenched and powerful to fall. Moreover, even in the event of “decapitation”, the regime has substantial human resources to keep replenishing its fallen military and civilian leaders, including the Supreme Leader.

Lastly, the NIC report concludes that the Iranian opposition within Iran and around the world is too disjointed, fragmented and disorganized to pose a credible alternative to the Iranian security state. While discussing a number of different potential scenarios for the takeover of power by the Iranian opposition, the NIC report concludes that such an eventuality remains “unlikely”, The Post reports.

The Post’s report appears to confirm earlier accounts by The New York Times and the Reuters news agency, which suggested that the consensus view among the U.S. IC is that, if killed, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would almost certainly be replaced by another hardliner, who would be ideologically opposed to both Israel and the West.

Notably, The Washington Post notes that the NIC report does not consider the possibility that the U.S. and Israel might decide to engage in a protracted ground war against Iran. Additionally, the report does not entertain the possibility that ethnic separatist forces within Iran—such as the Kurds, the Azeris or the Balochis—might revolt against Tehran, thus sparking a nationwide armed conflict.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 09 March 2026 | Permalink

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CIA working with Kurdish separatists to foment armed rebellion in northwestern Iran

March 5, 2026 by 1 Comment

Iran KurdistanTHE UNITED STATES CENTRAL Intelligence Agency (CIA) is arming and training ethnic separatists in northwestern Iran with the goal of fomenting an armed rebellion against Tehran in the coming weeks, according to reports. Several news outlets, including CNN, report that Iranian Kurdish opposition forces are preparing to launch a ground operation in northwestern Iran “in the coming days”.

The nearly 10 million Kurds in Iran are one of the largest ethnic minorities in the country, concentrated in the mountainous western provinces bordering Iraq and Turkey. They are predominantly Sunni Muslims in a country governed by a Shia clerical state, creating both religious and ethnic tension. The central government has generally responded to calls for autonomy by various Kurdish factions with security crackdowns and suppression of dissent. Kurdish regions have been subject to heavy surveillance and military deployment, particularly during periods of regional instability.

British news outlet ITV reports that American and Israeli air strikes have consistently targeted Iranian military installations in western Iran in recent days, in an effort to degrade Tehran’s security assets in the region and provide Kurdish rebel forces with the ability to launch a successful armed campaign. According to ITV, Kurdish rebels have asked Israeli and American forces to provide air cover for an eventual ground campaign—though whether this request has been approved remains unknown.

According to Axios, US President Donald Trump spoke directly with Iraqi Kurdish leaders last weekend, seeking access to Iran’s Kurdish provinces through the Kurdish-controlled autonomous region of northern Iraq. Such access would allow the CIA and US Special Operations Forces to create a supply route for the provision of weapons and other war materiel to Iranian Kurdish rebels. The US president also spoke with at least one Iranian Kurdish leader on Tuesday, according to reports.

CNN said it reached out to the CIA about this story but the agency refused to comment on it.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 05 March 2026 | Permalink

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Analysis: Escalation Without Endgame and the Limits of Defeating Iran

March 3, 2026 by 5 Comments

Iran Israel United States warTHE ONGOING CONFRONTATION BETWEEN Iran and its adversaries unfolds against the backdrop of a regime that is strategically depleted yet politically combustible. Yet strategic exhaustion does not equate to imminent collapse. Indeed, the potential degradation of Iran’s coercive institutions raises a more complex question: what follows tactical success? Thus, while Iran appears weakened and vulnerable, the longer-term trajectory of the conflict remains uncertain, fraught with the risk of protracted instability and regional spillover at a level that could make Libya and Syria seem mild by comparison.

Iran is Strategically Depleted and Vulnerable

Decades of crippling sanctions have ruined Iran’s economy and demoralized its population, causing an already polarized society to further-disintegrate. Outside of a small population of religious zealots, Iranians have little interest in martyrdom, and very few are willing to die for a regime that most see as politically and ideologically bankrupt. The stunning degree of the regime’s penetration by Israeli and American intelligence agencies is indicative of the disillusionment of ruling elites, let alone rank-and-file functionaries.

Militarily, this is hardly a war between equals. Even before bombs started falling in Tehran on February 28, Iran’s armed forces and its elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had been severely degraded by prior military engagements with the U.S. and Israel. Even with the assistance of its proxies and allies, Iran is demonstrably unable to match the military and intelligence resources of its opponents. As many have noted, Tehran’s retaliatory strikes appear to emphasize economic disruption and psychological pressure on civilian populations. But the marked inconsistency in the scale and delivery of Iran’s retaliatory attacks suggests that it is struggling to respond in a coherent fashion.

Russia, meanwhile, is nowhere to be seen. As in the cases of Venezuela and Cuba, Moscow has restricted its response to this crisis to diplomatic condemnations and offers to mediate, rather than offering military assistance to its Middle Eastern ally. This is hardly surprising, given Russia’s broader strategic priorities and its desire to further its ongoing expansionist goals in Europe by avoid overextension elsewhere.

Iran is weak, exhausted, alone. It is teetering on the edge. Yet, instead of cheering, this appears to trouble even seasoned Iran hawks like John Bolton, Trump’s onetime national security adviser. A veteran Republican, Bolton is probably the most consistent and vociferous Iran critic in the Western Hemisphere. The Iranian government has actively planned to assassinate him in recent years. But in a recent interview, Bolton cautioned about the lack of planning behind Washington’s latest adventurism in the Middle East and waned that the current situation may “deepen conflict, create a dangerous power vacuum, and purge the [entire Middle East] into turmoil”. What is Bolton seeing that Trump’s inner circle is not?

This War Will Not End Soon

American air campaigns have a demonstrated history of obliterating Washington’s tactical targets and severely disrupting its adversaries. Iran is unlikely to prove an exception to this rule. However, air campaigns—no matter how sophisticated—cannot by themselves reorder domestic politics and build long-lasting political outcomes. It follows that, despite delivering a series of indisputable tactical successes, including the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader and senior members of his inner circle, American and Israeli airpower cannot by itself ensure a pro-Western outcome in Iran.

Obliterating the Iranian regime’s military capabilities and degrading its ability to dispense violence against its own population is likely to create a power vacuum. But that is not the same as managing the ensuing political fallout. Even if the regime falls—which is not the likeliest scenario—its successor is unlikely to be friendly to the U.S. or Israel. For over a century, Iran has been permeated by a political culture shaped by fervent nationalism, revolutionary narratives and resistance against foreign intervention. This has been particularly so since 1979, with the theocratic regime building the nation’s identity around the idea of its resistance to the “Great Satan” and its regional allies, including Israel and Saudi Arabia. This identity permeates Iran’s security apparatus, its state institutions and its education system. Even anti-regime Iranians—including the student demonstrators who cheered Ayatollah Khamenei’s demise—espouse core elements of that narrative. Read more of this post

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Mossad had ‘some 100 agents’ on the ground in Iran on June 13, Israeli officials claim

September 22, 2025 by 4 Comments

Mossad inside IranTHE MOSSAD, ISRAEL’S PRIMARY covert action agency, had “some 100 agents” on the ground in Iran at the start of the Twelve-Day War, according to senior Israeli government officials who participated in a television documentary. The documentary was aired last week on Israel’s Channel 13 television channel. It features interviews with senior Israeli government officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Minister of Defense Israel Katz, Minister of Foreign Affairs Gideon Sa’ar, and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi.

According to the documentary, several new intelligence units focusing on Iran were established across the Israeli military establishment in the summer of 2023, in anticipation of a war with the Islamic Republic. These units acted in coordination with the Mossad in the lead-up to June 13, when Israel launched the opening salvos of the Twelve-Day War. The documentary claims that around 100 Mossad agents were active on the ground in the early hours of June 13. It appears that the term “agents”, as used in the documentary, refers primarily to Iranian Mossad assets, rather than Mossad officers.

Israeli officials describe the Mossad operation as “unprecedented” in scale, as never before had so many operatives been simultaneously activated for a single mission. It was also unprecedented in complexity, because it involved the deployment missile systems, the documentary claims. These systems had been previously smuggled into Iran and were used to destroy Iran’s anti-aircraft installations and ballistic missile launchers. Iranian war planners had not considered the possibility of missile attacks against their military installations originating from within Iran’s borders.

In addition to the Mossad-led component of the operation, members of the Israel Defense Forces were also active outside Israel’s borders that day. According to Brigadier General Gilad Keinan, commander of Israeli Air Forces’ Air Operations Group, Israeli troops were “on the ground somewhere in the Middle East” on the evening of June 13. He did not provide further details.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 22 September 2025 | Permalink

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Senior Mossad veteran discusses recruitment of Iranian assets in rare interview

July 22, 2025 by 2 Comments

Mossad - ABTHE MOSSAD, ISRAEL’S PRIMARY foreign-intelligence agency, played a crucial role in Israel’s most recent attack on Iran. It is clear that, without unique intelligence on key Iranian figures and nuclear sites, much of it gathered by the Mossad, the Israeli Air Force could not have been so precise and deadly against Iranian targets.

It is a rare occasion to hear directly from a senior veteran of the Mossad. Oded Eilam (or Ailam), now 71, served in the Mossad for 24 years. In an interview with the German newspaper Bild, Eilam described the strategy that allowed the Israeli intelligence agency to successfully recruit and maintain an “extensive network” of spies inside Iran.

According to Eilam, the key to the Mossad’s success lies in Iran’s complex social structure. “Only 40% of [Iran’s] population of 90 million are Persians,” Eilam said, explaining that the ethnic divide makes it difficult for the Iranian government to control the population. “The [Iranian government’s] surveillance system has huge gaps; you can’t compare it to what the Stasi did in East Germany,” he added.

The former Mossad official explained that various ethnic groups inside Iran, such as Kurds, Turkmen, Baluchis, and Azeris, make up a potential pool for recruiting agents. According to Eilam, the motivation for cooperating with the Mossad is not necessarily support for Israel or financial reward, but often stems from dissatisfaction with the Iranian regime.

“Many people in Iran are unhappy. Large parts of society live in poverty,” explained Eilam. “While Iran has significant gas reserves, instead of investing this money in their country, the clerics have funneled billions into terrorist organizations like Hezbollah,” he added. Another factor that helps Mossad’s activities, according to Eilam, is Iran’s long territorial borders and the difficulty of monitoring them thoroughly. “This makes it possible to smuggle everything into the country,” he noted.

Eilam also emphasized the Mossad’s commitment to safeguarding its assets. “When someone works for us, we take care not only of them but also of their family,” he said, clarifying that the Mossad is dedicated to bringing its spies and their families to safety if needed. Although there are many opportunities to recruit agents in Iran, the Mossad is not in a rush. Eilam highlighted that the organization spends a significant amount of time on the process of selecting and screening candidates. “When we are looking for agents, we don’t just choose someone; we take a lot of time to ensure that the person is suitable.”

“When someone works for us,” the former officer noted, “the importance the Mossad attaches to verifying information. For a target, we do not use information from just one agent, but always multiple sources to be sure that the right person is hit,” said Eilam, also hinting at the extensive vetting processes the organization conducts before operational actions.

Eilam’s interview is a unique source of insight into the espionage operations of the Mossad. It is unclear why it was published—possibly to warn the Iranians to think twice before taking any offensive actions against Israel.

► Author: Dr. Avner Barnea* | Date: 22 July 2025 | Permalink

* Dr. Avner Barnea is a research fellow at the National Security Studies Center of the University of Haifa in Israel. He served as a senior officer in the Israel Security Agency (ISA). He is the author of We Never Expected That: A Comparative Study of Failures in National and Business Intelligence (Lexington Books, 2021).

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Israeli spy agency set up bases deep inside Iran years before June 13 strike

June 16, 2025 by 8 Comments

Tehran IranTHE MOSSAD, ISRAEL’S PRIMARY external intelligence agency, had set up forward-operating bases deep inside Iranian territory several years prior to last week’s attacks, which targeted Iran’s military and nuclear infrastructure. In some cases, Mossad operatives, including commando forces, were operating inside the vicinity of the Iranian capital Tehran for months prior to June 13, according to Israeli media outlets.

June 13 marked the commencement of Operation RISING LION, a joint Mossad/Israel Defense Force (IDF) campaign to decimate Iran’s military leadership, diminish its defense capabilities, and destroy its nuclear infrastructure. The assault, which is ongoing as of today, has been described by the Associated Press as the largest attack suffered by Iran since the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s.

Reports that emerged in the past 48 hours suggest that the success of the Israeli operation hinged decisively on a network of bases that the Mossad had managed to establish deep inside Iranian territory for quite some time. The bases had been set up by Mossad operatives that, in some cases, had managed to operate inside Iran for years. Additional support was allegedly provided by “special units of Iranian operatives working for Mossad”, according to one report.

The Mossad bases hosted “precision weapons” that had been smuggled in from Isarel over time. These were used to target selected Iranian surface-to-air missile installations shortly prior to the main phase of the attack, which was carried out by over 200 IDF fighter jets. With key Iranian defensive installations destroyed, the IDF fighter jets were able to carry out their missions without obstruction in the early hours of June 13.

Moreover, the Mossad appears to have //penetrated// the battle plans that were to be followed by the Islamic Republic’s senior military leadership during a possible military confrontation with Iran. Therefore, as the IDF attack commenced, Israeli missiles destroyed the top-secret bunker that was used by the leadership of the Artesh (Iran’s conventional military force) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). At least two dozen senior Artesh and IRGC commanders were killed as a result of this intelligence penetration, according to reports.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 16 June 2025 | Permalink

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Austrian intelligence service report draws international attention over Iran nuke claims

June 2, 2025 by 10 Comments

Direktion Staatsschutz und NachrichtendienstON MAY 26, THE Austrian domestic intelligence service, Direktion Staatsschutz und Nachrichtendienst (DSN) in Vienna officially presented its annual report: the Verfassungschutzbericht (VSB) [Constitution Protection Report].  The document can be downloaded [PDF] via the official homepage of the DSN.

First published in 1997 by the predecessor of the DSN and then titled Staatsschutzbericht [State Protection Report], these reports offer rare official insights into the work of Austria’s domestic intelligence service. While their form and scope have varied over the nearly 30 years of the service’s existence, their aim and structure have roughly stayed the same: the VSB informs the public about the duties of the service, and about recent developments in the fields it is tasked with, monitoring and policing, during the calendar year prior to its publication.

Featured chapters nearly always include political extremism, terrorism, espionage, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, protection of critical infrastructure and, since their emergence, sometimes also cyber threats. Often—thought not always—the reports feature anonymized cases from the year before and specialized essays about certain relevant topics. Traditionally the media and public give most attention to those parts of the report that deal with extremism and terrorism of all kinds inside Austria.

VSB 2024 Receives International Attention

This year, however, several paragraphs in the chapter titled “International Illicit Arms Trade and Proliferation” [“Internationaler Illegaler Waffenhandel und Proliferation”] have drawn international attention. The proliferation section—starting on page 154 of the report—deals with a number of states that can be described as partly or fully antagonistic to “the West”. In addition to Russia, China, Pakistan and North Korea, the Islamic Republic of Iran and its activities are described in the chapter. Regarding the Shia theocracy and its nuclear program, the report states (translated by the author with assistance by DeepL):

In order to assert and enforce its political claims to regional power, the Islamic Republic of Iran is striving for comprehensive armament. Nuclear weapons are intended to make the regime untouchable and to expand and consolidate its dominance in the Middle East and beyond. The Iranian program to develop nuclear weapons is well advanced. An arsenal of ballistic missiles is ready to carry nuclear warheads over long distances. [Emphasis added]

All efforts to prevent Iran’s armament with sanctions and agreements have so far proved ineffective. On the contrary: the Islamic Republic of Iran is producing weapons and weapons delivery systems on a large scale—and not just for its own use. [p.158]

Iranian intelligence services are entrusted with the development and implementation of circumvention structures for the procurement of armaments, proliferation-relevant technologies, and materials for weapons of mass destruction. They use front companies and networks inside and outside the Islamic Republic of Iran for this purpose. In particular, the [Islamic] Revolutionary Guards Corps’ widely ramified and difficult to oversee company empire serves proliferation purposes. [p.159]

The report clearly describes a program by Iran to develop nuclear weapons as a fact. It does not only suggest that it might be well advanced, but states this as a given. The report furthermore establishes that transport systems to deploy nuclear weapons—once finalized—are in place and could reach long-distance targets.

Fox News Picks Up VSB 2024

The VSB was picked up by the American media giant Fox News. The network reported on it under the title “Explosive new intelligence report reveals Iran’s nuclear weapons program still active” on May 28. The Fox News report begins by pointing out that “[t]he startling intelligence gathering of Austrian officials contradicts the assessment of the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)”. It goes on to note that “[t]he Austrian intelligence findings could be an unwanted wrench in President [Donald] Trump’s negotiation process to resolve the atomic crisis with Iran’s rulers because the data outlined in the report suggests the regime will not abandon its drive to secure a nuclear weapon.”

Fox News quotes David Albright, a physicist and founder/president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, DC, as saying: “[t]he ODNI report is stuck in the past, a remnant of the fallacious unclassified 2007 NIE [National Intelligence Estimate]. The Austrian report in general is similar to German and British assessments. Both governments, by the way, made clear to [the] US IC [Intelligence Community] in 2007 that they thought the US assessment was wrong that the Iranian nuclear weapons program ended in 2003.”

The Fox News report also states that “[t]he danger of the Islamic Republic of Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism [and its illegal atomic weapons program] was cited 99 times in the 211-page report that covers pressing threats to Austria’s democracy.” All in all, Fox News’ reporting paints a picture that the small European state’s intelligence service has information that contradicts the assessment of the much larger American IC and insinuates that the American assessment—and by implication the political approach to dealing with Iran—is wrong. Read more of this post

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Israeli soldiers working for Iranian intelligence spied on the Iron Dome

February 17, 2025 by 3 Comments

Iron Dome IsraelLAST MONTH, ISRAEL ARRESTED two reservists following an investigation that lasted several months and centered on uncovering espionage for an Iranian state entity during wartime. The two reservists had completed their regular military service before joining the reserves.

The two soldiers, identified as Yuri Eliasfov and Georgi Andreyev, held sensitive positions, and a least one was serving as a member of staff in Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system. The soldier serving in the Iron Dome is accused by the police, the Israel Security Agency (ISA), and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), of aiding the enemy during wartime, for which the penalty is life imprisonment or death without the discretion of the court. A prosecutor’s statement has been filed against the two soldiers.

According to the investigation, the espionage affair began when one of the suspects, who served in a classified security system, sought to make contact with Iranian intelligence on social media. During his search, he contacted an Iranian operator, who asked him to complete various tasks in exchange for payments. The investigation revealed that the two soldiers were recruited by Iranian intelligence through the Internet to carry out missions in exchange for payments.

They two men were initially required to spray anti-government graffiti in Tel Aviv and in Israel’s the northern region. Giorgi Andreyev, fearing the consequences of such actions, withdrew from the operation. “We are working for Iran and doing something dangerous,” he told Eliasfov. Despite this, however, Eliasfov, who is reportedly the main suspect in the case, continued his activities.

The undercover investigation revealed that Eliasfov, who serves in the Iron Dome system, filmed a video while participating in a classified information, which he then sent to his Iranian handler. He received $3,500 from the same Iranian official, while his at-times accomplice received $70. During his interrogation, Eliasfov claimed that he committed the acts due to being in a difficult financial situation and because he sought to obtain money easily.

One of the interesting findings that emerged from the investigation of the suspects was that other soldiers and family members were aware of Eliasfov’s initial actions and warned him that he was connecting himself with Iranian elements. Despite that, Eliasfov continued his espionage activities, which included filming a video from inside an Iron Dome facility. The footage reportedly contained classified material that could significantly endanger the security of the State of Israel. Read more of this post

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Analysis: Assad’s collapse in Syria was a strategic surprise to Israel

December 20, 2024 by 7 Comments

Syria IsraelTHE COLLAPSE OF THE regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on December 8 caught the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Israel’s intelligence community —mainly Israel Military Intelligence (IMI) and the Mossad— by surprise. Assad’s collapse occurred much faster than Israel had estimated. Israel did not expect that the Syrian Arab Army would disintegrate so resoundingly, within 48 hours of the attack by the Syrian rebels.

Israeli intelligence assessed that, despite the shocks it had suffered in recent months, the so-called Axis of Resistance against Israel —mainly Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran— was stable. A scenario of rapid collapse of the government in Syria had not been assessed as a possibility, or even given a low probability tag. That was primarily because the Assad family had governed Syria for almost 60 years.

Following the Assad regime’s collapse, the focus of Israel’s intelligence is on analyzing the intentions of the major rebel organization, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and understanding how —if at all— it will lead the new administration in Syria. Israel is also examining developments in southern Syria, as well as what is happening at the Syrian and Russian military bases in Latakia and Tartus. Moreover, the IDF is monitoring the activities of Iranian elements in Syria, including on the border with Lebanon, to prevent the possibility of military equipment being transferred from Syria to Hezbollah.

It is clear to Israel that Turkey stands behind the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham organization and that Ankara armed and supported the group for a significant period. What is less clear is whether and how Turkey’s involvement in Syria could threaten Israel’s interests, given that Israel’s relations with Turkey have deteriorated dramatically in recent years.

Assad was a key member of the pro-Iranian Axis of Resistance. Following his fall from power, Iran and Hezbollah could lose their main logistical hub for producing, transferring, and storing weapons, as well as training their forces and militias. Additionally, Syria under Assad constantly posed the threat of turning into yet another battlefront against Israel. Without Assad, Russia could lose its grip on Syria —the only country in the Middle East where Russian influence dominates that of the United States. The Russians could also lose access to their military bases in Syria, which offered the Russian Navy access to the waters of the Mediterranean.

Despite the fall of the bitter enemy that was Assad’s Syria, and the deep shock suffered by the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance camp that has been dominant in the Middle East in recent decades, Israeli intelligence is not optimistic about the emerging situation in post-Assad Syria. Syria is a collection of minorities —Druze, Kurds, Alawites, and Christians— that have been artificially joined together despite carrying bitter, bloody scores. The latter may erupt sharply, especially against the Alawites. Concepts such as liberal politics, civil society, or a cohesive nation-state, have never existed inside Syria.

It follows that Israel is very concerned about the emerging uncertainty in Syria. Immediately after the fall of Assad, the IDF strengthened its defenses on the Golan Heights border to ensure that the chaos in Syria did not spill over into Israel. Meanwhile, Israel is in contact —both directly and through intermediaries— with several Syrian rebel groups, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The Israeli message at this stage is a demand that the rebels not approach the border, along with a warning that, if they violate the separation of forces agreement, Israel will respond with force.

And a final note: assessments in relation to the Syrian regime’s collapse continue to emerge in the IDF and the Israeli intelligence community. These assessments concern the extent to which the lessons of October 7 have been sufficiently analyzed and assimilated within Israel. Specifically, there are questions about whether this new intelligence surprise in Syria may stem from the fact that an in-depth investigation into the lessons of October 7 has yet to be carried out during the 14 months of the war with Hamas.

► Author: Avner Barnea* | Date: 20 December 2024 | Permalink

Dr. Avner Barnea is research fellow at the National Security Studies Center of the University of Haifa in Israel. He served as a senior officer in the Israel Security Agency (ISA). He is the author of We Never Expected That: A Comparative Study of Failures in National and Business Intelligence (Lexington Books, 2021).

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British soldier who spied for Iran found guilty of espionage and terrorism

December 2, 2024 by 4 Comments

Wandsworth prisonDANIEL KHALIFE, A BRITISH soldier who spied for Iran, has been found guilty of espionage and terrorism, in a case that has revealed serious vulnerabilities in the British security clearance-vetting system. The then-20-year-old Khalife was arrested in January 2022 while serving on active duty in Staffordshire, in Britain’s Midlands region. He was charged with violating the Official Secrets Act 1911 and the Terrorism Act 2000.

Prior to his arrest, Khalife was reportedly seen by his fellow soldiers and superiors as a promising soldier. Having joined the British Army at 16, he was quickly promoted to lance corporal (the lowest ranking of a non-commissioned officer) and cleared to work in the area of signals intelligence. He had also expressed a strong interest in joining the Special Air Service (SAS), which are the British Army’s special forces.

However, on November 9, 2021, Khalife voluntarily called the national security concerns hotline of the British Security Service (MI5). He told the operator on the other end of the line that he was a British soldier who had been spying for Iran for “more than two years”, but had now decided to become a double agent by cooperating with the British government. Khalife called again, and although he did not identify himself during the telephone conversations, MI5 was able to track him.

It has since become known that Khalife began spying for Iran when he was just 17 years old, shortly after joining the British Army. Over the next two years, Khalife provided his Iranian handlers with information about the identities of SAS personnel, military computer systems, as well as government surveillance programs and hardware, including unmanned aerial vehicles. Throughout that time, he communicated with his Iranian handlers via the Telegram instant messaging service, or via dead drops in Britain, as well as during trips abroad.

Shockingly, Khalife was temporarily able to escape justice twice following his arrest. In January 2023, he disappeared while on bail. He was found after nearly a month, living in a stolen van, which he had converted into a rudimentary camper. In September of that year, Khalife escaped from Wandsworth prison (pictured) in southwest London, by hiding beneath a delivery vehicle. He was captured three days later and eventually taken to court, where he was convicted and is now awaiting sentencing.

According to reports, British authorities are still unable to piece together the entirety of the information that Khalife shared with the Iranians. Consequently, the full extent of the damage he caused to British national security remains unknown. What is clear is that the Khalife case has exposed serious vulnerabilities in the security clearance-vetting process, which is “lacking in a lot of ways” —not least in the fact that it relies largely on self-reporting, as one expert told The Guardian newspaper on Saturday.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 02 December 2024 | Permalink

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Israeli couple who spied for Iran made ample use of digital applications

November 11, 2024 by 3 Comments

Israel and IranTHE ISRAEL SECURITY AGENCY (ISA) recently announced the arrests of an Israeli couple of Azeri origin on suspicion of spying for Iran. The couple, both 32 years old, were allegedly recruited by an Iranian handler of Azeri origin named Elshan Agheev. As part of their activities, and for about two years, the couple gathered intelligence on critical infrastructure and security sites in Israel, and even conducted surveillance on an academic working for the Institute for National Security Studies, allegedly in order to kill her.

The case demonstrates how software that is easily accessible on the Internet makes it possible to encrypt information communicated between a handler and an agent, as well as how money is transferred to the agent. The official indictment reveals details about the couple’s modus operandi, including the identity of the particular software the spies used to communicate with their Iranian handler.

One of the applications the couple used is Zangi, which facilitates the exchange of encrypted instant messages. According to the company’s website, Zangi offers voice and video calling, text messaging, and file transfer services “without registration and without data collection”. In fact, according to Zangi, the data is saved on the user’s device only. In addition to using the Zangi application, the couple also appear to have used the Zolotaya Korona money-transfer platform. The couple allegedly used the platform in order to receive payments by their Iranian handlers, and to transfer funds to other parties involved in Iranian-led espionage activities inside Israel.

Another application allegedly used by the couple is Ecos Dos, a digital wallet for storing and transferring digital currencies. Ecos Dos is a software wallet that can be installed on a computer or mobile phone. It supports a wide variety of crypto-currencies and is used to store and transfer cryptocurrencies. It is known for its simplicity of use and friendly interface. It is popular among users who wish to maintain anonymity when transacting in digital currencies. It does not require identifying a user’s details when operating, so anyone can create an account and receive funds anonymously.

The suspects are also believed to have used a software called Encryptor in order to encrypt information. This software allows files and folders to be encrypted so that only those who have the encryption key can open them. The couple allegedly used Encryptor to encrypt the information they collected before passing it on to their Iranian handlers, thus making it difficult for Israeli authorities to decipher the information.

The use of these applications attests to the sophistication of the Iranian spy network that was recently busted in Israel, and its efforts to hide its activities inside the Jewish state. The recent indictment against the couple details a collection of serious security offenses, including aiding the enemy in war and providing information to the enemy to harm the security of the state. Iran is clearly stepping up its efforts to recruit Israeli citizens for espionage and terrorist activities.

► Author: Avner Barnea | Date: 11 November 2024 | Permalink

Dr. Avner Barnea is research fellow at the National Security Studies Center of the University of Haifa in Israel. He served as a senior officer in the Israel Security Agency (ISA). He is the author of We Never Expected That: A Comparative Study of Failures in National and Business Intelligence (Lexington Books, 2021).

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Israeli citizens arrested on suspicion of working for Iranian intelligence

October 28, 2024 by 2 Comments

Ronen Bar Israeli Security AgencyTHE ISRAELI SECURITY AGENCY (ISA) has announced the arrest of 18 Israeli citizens suspected of working for Iranian Intelligence. Among them are seven Israelis, who immigrated to Israel from Azerbaijan, and are suspected of having been in contact for two years with Iranian intelligence. Some of the seven were caught carrying out surveillance against a senior Israeli Air Force officer, whom they were reportedly planning to assassinate.

Israeli authorities accuse the suspects of photographing and collecting information on military bases and facilities, including Air Force bases, Iron Dome battery sites, a power plant, and other energy infrastructure facilities. The suspects are also accused of having received from their Iranian handlers a set of maps of Israeli strategic sites, including the Golani Brigade’s training base, where four Israeli soldiers were killed by a drone attack last week. In over two years, the suspects allegedly performed approximately 600 missions under the direction of two handlers from Iranian intelligence. They did so in return for hundreds of thousands of shekels, which were paid to them in cash and various crypto-currencies.

Another Israeli citizen, who was arrested on suspicion of spying for Iranian intelligence in return for payments, has been named as Vladimir Varehovsky, 35, from Tel Aviv. Among other tasks, Varehovsky is suspected of gathering information about an Israeli scientist, whom he agreed to murder in exchange for a $100,000 payment. The suspect had reportedly acquired weapons for the assigned task, but the ISA arrested him before he could carry it out.

In another counterintelligence operation, the ISA arrested seven young Palestinians from the east of Jerusalem, who have been charged with working for Iranian Intelligence. The main suspect recruited the other six to carry out tasks for a fee. Tasks included setting cars on fire, gathering information about a city mayor in Israel, and plotting to assassinate one of the country’s top scientists. The suspects used social media for recruitment purposes. They were reportedly arrested before they were able to execute their missions. Read more of this post

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