The Real War Is About To Begin: Iran Transitions to Full-Scale Insurgency
March 30, 2026 12 Comments
THE IRAN WAR OPENED with a shock. In minutes, the United States and Israel struck deep into Iran’s command structure, killing nearly fifty senior figures—among them the Supreme Leader and much of the military high command. It was a ruthless display of intelligence, surveillance, and targeting at a level rarely seen in modern warfare. Russian forces only wish they could have achieved even a fraction of this effect in Ukraine in 2022. Had they done so, the war’s trajectory might have unfolded very differently. But this kind of operational success is exceptionally hard to deliver in warfare.
And yet, as Carl von Clausewitz cautioned centuries ago, the outcome of war is not governed by formulaic calculus. No matter how astounding, operational sophistication and technological prowess do not guarantee success. Instead of an immediate collapse, the decapitation of the Iranian regime appears to have produced a series of unpredictable second-order effects. At the very least, it physically eliminated Iran’s few pragmatic leaders who have historically favored restraint. Their demise effectively handed over power to the hardliners of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Moreover, the war appears to have paralyzed Iran’s domestic opposition, whose adherents may despise the regime but—unlike the U.S. and Israel—do not want to see their country break up into ethnic statelets.
Most importantly, the February 28 decapitation strike convinced Iran’s surviving leaders that this is an existential fight—not a limited confrontation like the Twelve-Day War. Today’s ruling Principalists in Iran differ sharply from the cosmopolitan, Western-educated elite of the 1960s and 1970s. They are largely provincial in origin, domestically rooted, and lack the international ties that once offered pathways of exit. They do not hold dual citizenships, do not maintain 
foreign residences, and few of them possess the linguistic or social capital to relocate abroad. Simply put, they have no viable exit. For them, defeat is not exile—it is annihilation. Under such conditions, the expectation is not capitulation, but resistance to the very end.
Activating the Iranian Asymmetric Doctrine
Starting in 2001, the campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq offered Iranian war planners a prolonged and unusually comprehensive vantage point from which to study the American way of war in their immediate neighborhood. For over two decades, the Iranians analyzed these methods, learned from them, and internalized their logic into their own asymmetric warfare doctrine. And now, having survived the February 28 decapitation attack, the Iranian regime has put that doctrine into operation. Iran’s asymmetric doctrine channels the state’s military, civilian, economic, and informational assets into a multi-domain, protracted insurgency campaign designed to inflict maximum pain on its enemies. In doing so, it rests on what is perhaps the Islamic Republic’s greatest asset: its asymmetric patience—i.e., its capacity to endure more physical and emotional torment than its Western opponents and their allies.
The Iranians refined their asymmetric patience skills during what they refer to as the “War of Holy Defense” (1980-1988), one of the 20th century’s longest conflicts and the deadliest conventional war ever fought in the developing world. The then-newly formed Islamic Republic suffered over 500,000 casualties—many of those due to exposure to chemical warfare—but managed to bring Saddam Hussein’s Western-backed Iraq into a standstill and force it into a truce. To do so, they even resorted to so-called “human wave assaults”, large masses of mostly unarmed youth who swarmed enemy positions and overwhelmed them by the sheer power of their number. That was largely how the Basij, the Iranian regime’s paramilitary street gangs that continue to operate in modern-day Iran, were initially formed.
Iran’s “Economy of Resistance”
On March 28, the Telegram channel belonging to the Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued an infographic titled “The Path to Defeating the Enemy in the Economic War”. The infographic reflects the Islamic Republic’s concept of “economy of resistance”, which was first developed in 2014 by Mojtaba Khamenei’s father, the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The central idea behind this concept is restructuring the Iranian economy, not simply to reduce its susceptibility to Western-imposed sanctions, but to allow it to stabilize and even develop. The goal of the economy of resistance is to prevent the destruction of the Islamic Republic and the Westernization of Iranian society. Through the economy of resistance doctrine, and with crucial help by China and Russia, Iran has largely managed to insulate its economy from the global economic system that is now reeling under Iran’s own asymmetric attacks. Read more of this post
A JOINT PROJECT BY the German newsmagazine 
A CLASSIFIED REPORT ISSUED two weeks ago by the United States National Intelligence Council (NIC) found that even a full-scale interstate war against Iran would be unlikely to dislodge or drastically alter the current regime. A summary of the report 
THE UNITED STATES CENTRAL Intelligence Agency (CIA) is arming and training ethnic separatists in northwestern Iran with the goal of fomenting an armed rebellion against Tehran in the coming weeks, according to reports. Several news outlets, 
THE ONGOING CONFRONTATION BETWEEN Iran and its adversaries unfolds against the backdrop of a regime that is strategically depleted yet politically combustible. Yet strategic exhaustion does not equate to imminent collapse. Indeed, the potential degradation of Iran’s coercive institutions raises a more complex question: what follows tactical success? Thus, while Iran appears weakened and vulnerable, the longer-term trajectory of the conflict remains uncertain, fraught with the risk of protracted instability and regional spillover at a level that could make Libya and Syria seem mild by comparison.
FOUR MEN HAVE BEEN arrested in France on suspicion of spying for China using a system of parabolic antennas and computers installed at a rented property in the French countryside. The men were arrested last Saturday and Sunday by the General Directorate for Internal Security (DGSI), which focuses on counterterrorism and counterespionage.
AT LEAST THREE EUROPEAN Union members states now require Russian diplomats who are not accredited in their territories to notify them prior to entering their borders. According to the new requirement, Russian diplomats must provide advance notification if they intend to travel to, or transit through, a European Union country in which they are not accredited.
INTELLIGENCE PARTNERS IN THE North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are “not talking openly” anymore, while authorities in Denmark have advised government officials to disable Bluetooth functions on their devices due to spying concerns. According to reports in British news outlets, intelligence-sharing functions inside NATO are at a breaking point following a series of actions by the United States that one source 
EARLIER THIS MONTH, FRANCE-based British reporter Chris Bockman was given rare access to a training course designed collaboratively by a leading French university and France’s intelligence services. The course is part of the Diplôme sur le Renseignement et les Menaces Globales (Diploma of Intelligence and Global Threats), which is offered by the Institut d’études politiques de Saint-Germain-en-Laye (known as Sciences Po Saint-Germain), located on the northwestern outskirts of Paris.
A FORMER DEEP COVER Russian intelligence officer, whose cover was blown in 2010 when he was arrested in the United States, is spearheading efforts by the Kremlin to secure investments by India’s technology sector. The spy, Andrei Bezrukov, was recruited by the Soviet Committee for State Security (KGB) in the late 1970s or early 1980s—most likely alongside his wife, Elena Vavilova. For several years, the married couple lived in several countries, including Canada and France, before arriving in the United States in 1999 using fraudulently obtained Canadian passports.
IN A RARE MEDIA interview, the chief of Colombia’s National Intelligence Directorate (DNI) has said that his agency’s collaboration with the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and other American spy organizations continues unabated. This statement appears to contradict a prior statement by the president of Colombia, who said his country had stopped all intelligence-sharing with the United States in protest against the lethal targeting of civilian vessels in the Caribbean.
A BRITISH MAN WANTED by American authorities for spying for China, who disappeared along with his Chinese handler while under house arrest, may have managed to escape to China using a private jet, a report claims. John Miller, 63, from Tunbridge Wells in the United Kingdom, was arrested alongside his alleged Chinese handler, Cui Guanghai, in April of this year.
THE MOSSAD, ISRAEL’S PRIMARY covert action agency, had “some 100 agents” on the ground in Iran at the start of the Twelve-Day War, according to senior Israeli government officials who participated in a television documentary. The 
PROSECUTORS IN VIENNA HAVE charged a former intelligence officer with spying for Russia in a high-profile case that has had broad political ramifications in Austria and abroad. The criminal case centers on Egisto Ott, a former employee of Austria’s Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution and Counterterrorism (BVT). The BVT operated as Austria’s primary domestic intelligence agency from 2002 until its dissolution in 2021.
intelNews.org 
China is now sending missiles to Iran, according to US intelligence agencies
April 13, 2026 11 Comments
On Saturday, the US-based international television network CNN cited “three people familiar with recent intelligence assessment” in reporting that China was preparing to deliver to Iran several shipments of shoulder-fired anti-air missile systems, known as MANPADs. These missile systems are highly prized in both low- and high-intensity conflicts because they give individual soldiers a cheap, portable way to destroy multimillion-dollar aircraft. Their low cost and ease of concealment allow ambush-style attacks that are difficult to detect, forcing enemy pilots to fly higher or avoid certain areas. Thus, if utilized appropriately, MANPAD weapons can effectively strip an opponent of their low-altitude air superiority.
Later on Saturday, a report in The New York Times claimed that United States intelligence agencies have obtained evidence that China may have already sent at least one shipment of MANPADs to Iran. The paper noted that the intelligence collected is “not definitive” and that there is no evidence to suggest that the Iranians have received the shipment of missiles from China, or that they have deployed these weapons on the battlefield.
If it is verified, however, the intelligence may indicate that the Chinese are abandoning their traditional reluctance to supply Iran with finished or fully assembled weapons systems—especially for use against the United States armed forces. In the past, China has used a number of state-controlled export companies to supply Iran with fuel, chemicals and hardware components that can, under certain circumstances, be used to aid Iran’s military effort.
If China were to begin to systematically supply Iran with missiles and other weapons systems, it could significantly alter the course of the ongoing conflict between the Islamic Republic and the United States-Israeli alliance. Much of the course of this war depends on the ability of each side to maintain its supply of weapons—especially offensive and defensive missiles, or other interceptor ammunition.
► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 13 April 2026 | Permalink
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