Analysis: American Intelligence and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
March 31, 2022 3 Comments
AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES ASSESSED Russia’s intentions in Ukraine with remarkable precision. Moreover, Washington’s picture of the Russian military’s material power has proven highly accurate. On the other hand, American intelligence agencies appear to have over-estimated Russia’s conceptual military power —that is, Moscow’s ability to utilize its material military strength efficiently. This, combined with a tendency to underrate the willingness of the Ukrainian population to resist the Russian invasion, appears to have led Washington to over-estimate Russia’s chances of a swift military victory in Ukraine.
American estimates of Russia’s military power potential before the invasion of Ukraine were largely accurate. United States intelligence agencies —primarily the Defense Intelligence Agency and the Central Intelligence Agency— had formed a relatively precise picture of the Russian military strength, in terms of its material power. This means that, long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Washington was well-versed on the strength of the Russian military in terms of its size, hardware and firepower. Moreover, American 
intelligence interpreted Russian intentions on Ukraine with remarkable accuracy. It should be noted that, with the help of its intelligence advisors, the White House was able to estimate the precise date and time of the invasion of Ukraine.
However, America’s understanding of Russian conceptual power —namely the ability of the Russian military to utilize its physical resources effectively— was far more limited. Washington over-estimated the logistical and organizational capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces. In other words, American intelligence had a largely accurate picture of the material capabilities of the Russian military. It had a far less accurate picture of the Russian military’s ability to use these capabilities effectively. It follows that the unimpressive performance of the Russian military in Ukraine has surprised American observers, and has prompted a re-evaluation of Russian military capability estimates in the American intelligence community. Read more of this post
UKRAINE’S MILITARY INTELLIGENCE AGENCY has published a list that contains the names, addresses and passport numbers of 600 Russians, who it alleges are employees of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). The FSB is Russia’s domestic security and counterintelligence agency, but its personnel also operate in former Soviet republics, including Ukraine. It has been 
THE PRESIDENT OF MEXICO has stated that his country is “sovereign” in response to comments, made by a senior United States military official, that Mexico hosts more Russian intelligence personnel than any other country in the world. These 
RUSSIA’S MINISTER OF DEFENSE, Sergei Shoigu, who has been one of President Vladimir Putin’s closest confidantes for nearly two decades, has not been seen in public for nearly two weeks, prompting speculation that he may be under arrest. Shoigu, 66, was appointed Minister of Defense in 2012. Since then, he has been arguably the most media-friendly member of the Putin administration, and has formed a close alliance between the Russian military and pro-government media outlets.
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“THERE ARE DECADES WHERE nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen”. These words by the Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin offer a fitting description of the cataclysmic events witnessed since February 24. In the early hours of that day, the largest country in the world launched a strategic ground offensive against the largest country in Europe. What began as a “special military operation” has now escalated into the most extensive military conflict in Europe since World War II. It is clear that Russia’s original plan for this war collapsed within hours of the initial attack. But the correlation of forces continues to overwhelmingly favor the Russian side. Moreover, the bulk of the Russian forces are heading for Kyiv. This could result in the largest and most deadly urban battle since World War II.
flee to Lviv. At the same time, elite formations from the Main Directorate of the Armed Forces’ General Staff (GRU) and Spetsnaz (special operations forces) were sent to the Ukrainian capital to assassinate leading government figures.
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THERE ARE GROWING CONCERNS in Western intelligence circles that the war in Ukraine may be entering an unconventional phase in the coming days, as Russia may deploy chemical weapons on the war-torn country. Alert levels quickly rose in Western capitals late yesterday, after Russia 
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THE DEMAND FOR PRIVATE military contractors (PMCs) in Ukraine is rising by the day, as experts see “a frenzy in the market” for security personnel consisting primarily of former soldiers with combat experience. 
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