India arrests Moscow embassy security employee for spying for Pakistan

February 5, 2024 by 3 Comments

Embassy of India in RussiaAUTHORITIES IN INDIA HAVE arrested a security employee at the Indian High Commission in Russia, accusing him of spying for Pakistani intelligence. The embassy of India in Moscow is one of its largest in the world and is viewed as critical to New Delhi’s strategic relations with Russia. Employees that staff the Moscow embassy are highly vetted and typically represent the cream of the crop of India’s Ministry of External Affairs. It follows that news of the arrest of a Moscow embassy security employee on espionage charges must have raised eyebrows in India.

The employee in question has been identified in news reports as Satendra Siwal, a resident of the village of Shahmahiuddinpur, located in the Hapur district of Uttar Pradesh. He is believed to have been employed as an India-Based Security Assistant (IBSA) at the Indian embassy in Moscow since 2021. Siwal reportedly belongs to the embassy’s Multi-Tasking Staff (MTS), a broad job title that encompasses a variety technical support specialists working at India’s diplomatic facilities worldwide.

According to reports, Siwal was arrested by members of the Anti-Terrorist Squad (ATS) in the northern Indian city of Meerut, 250 miles northeast of New Delhi. He was charged with participating in “anti-India activities”, which included providing government secrets to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate. According to the ATS, the secrets given to the ISI by Siwal included information about strategic planning by the Indian Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of External Affairs (Siwal’s direct employer), and the Indian military. Siwal allegedly spied for the ISI in exchange for financial compensation.

Indian authorities said the case against Siwal was built with the help of “electronic surveillance” and other “evidence collection”, but did not provide details. In a statement issued on Monday, the ATS said Siwal had allegedly “confessed to his crime” during questioning. The espionage suspect is now facing charges under India’s Official Secrets Act.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 5 February 2024 | Permalink

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CIA director secretly visits Somalia and Kenya amidst rising tensions in East Africa

January 22, 2024 by 4 Comments

Al-Shabaab - IAWILLIAM BURNS, DIRECTOR OF the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), reportedly visited in secret at least two East African nations last week, amidst growing tensions and instability in the region. The trip was confirmed by both the Kenyan and Somali governments after Burns had already returned to the United States.

Reports indicate that Burns held a high-level meeting on Monday in Nairobi with Kenyan President William Ruto and Noordin Haji, the director of Kenya’s National Intelligence Service. The United States Ambassador to Kenya, Margaret Whitman, was also reportedly present at the meeting. Later in the week, on Thursday, the CIA director met with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in Mogadishu before departing for the United States.

The specific details of the discussions during Burns’ visit remain undisclosed, leading to considerable speculation. Notably, it is highly unusual for senior American intelligence officials to personally visit sub-Saharan Africa, as the CIA typically communicates with the local governments through station chiefs or American ambassadors. Burns’ in-person visit suggests compelling reasons for the direct engagement.

According to some Kenyan news outlets, discussions encompassed the escalating instability in sub-Saharan Africa, which are stemming from various sources. These include the ongoing conflict in Sudan between government-aligned forces and militias loyal to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Additionally, there is growing turmoil in the Democratic Republic of Congo after last month’s elections, resulting in the re-election of President Félix Tshisekedi. Disputes over the election’s fairness have led to military deployments to maintain peace amid rising tensions throughout the country.

Washington’s concerns also revolve around the continuing presence of al-Shabaab in East Africa. Operating in Somalia, al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda-linked armed group, engages in conflict with the Somali government and is responsible for several terrorist attacks in Kenya. The United States currently has around 500 military advisors in Somalia, supporting the Somali government in its efforts against al-Shabaab.

Notably, the CIA has not issued an official statement regarding Burns’ visit to East Africa.

► Author: Ian Allen | Date: 22 January 2024 | Permalink

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North Korean radio station known for sending coded messages to spies goes silent

January 15, 2024 by 2 Comments

North South KoreaNORTH KOREA APPEARS TO have suspended a long-standing radio station, known for broadcasting content targeted at South Koreans, which also aired encrypted messages intended for North Korean spies abroad. Radio Pyongyang was founded by Korean communist forces in the 1940s. In 1950 it formed part of the North Korean state’s official media propaganda arm.

Throughout the Cold War, Radio Pyongyang aired hundreds of hours of news and cultural content every week. The broadcasts were in various languages and were exclusively aimed at international listeners. However, most of the station’s output was targeted at South Koreans. In 2002, the station was renamed Voice of Korea. Around that time, possibly owing to a temporary rapprochement between North and South Korea, the station curtailed much of its political programming. However, broadcasts featuring political content were resumed in 2016, as relations between the two warring sides began to deteriorate once again.

For much of its existence, the Voice of Korea has also been known to operate as a so-called numbers station. The term denotes shortwave radio stations, usually sponsored by a government entity, that regularly air broadcasts consisting of formatted number sequences. These sequences are widely believed to be encrypted communications addressed to intelligence officers operating abroad. They contain operational instructions and other directives that are typically undecipherable without the use of an encryption protocol. These stations also broadcast certain types of music, which function as codewords and are believed to signal specific directives to spies.

But the Voice of Korea unexpectedly fell silent last week. Its website, which features content in several languages, also appears to have been taken down. The sudden changes occurred days after North Korea’s Supreme Leader, Kim Jong-un, delivered a key address during the year-end plenum of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) in Pyongyang, on December 31. In his speech, which became public on January 6, the North Korean leader declared that the reunification of Korea under communist principles —a longstanding goal of the WPK—had been rendered “impossible” due to widening differences in approach between the two Koreas.

The North Korean strongman also called for “a fundamental change” in the WPK’s policy on inter-Korean affairs. Finally, he discussed a series of steps for the “reorganization of entities” that govern North Korea’s relations with South Korea. Several North Korean government websites focusing on the reunification of Korea, including the Voice of Korea website, have since been taken down. North Korea observers suggest that the daily radio broadcasts of the Voice of Korea appear to be part of the reorganization declared by Kim Jong-UN on December 31.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 15 January 2024 | Permalink

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Analysis: Israel underestimated Hamas while overestimating its own capabilities

January 10, 2024 by 10 Comments

IDF IsraelTHE OCTOBER 7 ATTACK on Israel was a total surprise. There was no warning. There were very few signs of a possible attack. Israeli intelligence evaluated these signs as elements of a routine military exercise by Hamas, and even assessed them as parts of an imaginary scenario. It therefore gave no warning to those Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) units that were stationed on the border with Gaza. Meanwhile, what we know about the intelligence failure of October 7 will likely pale before what the commission of inquiry will reveal once it is established. That was precisely what happened in the case of the Agranat Commission of Inquiry, which made significant revelations while investigating the intelligence failings of the IDF in the run up to the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

In the eyes of the Israeli generation of the Yom Kippur War, the possibility of such a failure happening again was unthinkable. Yet there is a significant difference between the events of 1973 and the events of last October 7. In 1973 the intelligence failed, but the IDF reacted quickly and acted efficiently. This Q Quotetime, in the first two days of the conflict the IDF was confused and acted without direction, in the apparent absence of relevant action plans for what to do in the event of a massive invasion. The IDF was clearly not ready for such a scenario.

Recently, another important piece of information about the intelligence failure of October 7 was revealed. It was reported that, two months before the surprise attack by Hamas, information was received from an agent handled by the Israel Security Agency (ISA) in Gaza, with a “very high” reliability level. The agent allegedly reported that Hamas was planning “a major move in the week after Yom Kippur”. Yet that warning was not marked as significant; the assumption was that, if the warning materialized, it would be corroborated with additional intelligence. It was thus kept from higher levels of command and from Israeli Military Intelligence (IMI). The ISA did not deny the report, saying instead in a statement: “Focusing on one specific piece of news or another does not reflect the intelligence picture at the time”.

Given the high number of casualties and the horrendous destruction that resulted from the October 7 attack, many Israelis, including some in the security establishment, feel that it is far too long to wait until a commission of inquiry is established and publishes its conclusions. It will likely take at least two years Q Quotefor those conclusions to become public. What is to be done in the meantime? There is public pressure to launch the inquiry soon.

Recently the State Comptroller of Israel, Matanyahu Engelman, announced that he has begun to investigate the intelligence failure. This is an appropriate move. However, with all due respect to the state comptroller’s inquiries, we know from previous experience that his findings have no teeth. For instance, in the context of Hamas, the state comptroller’s review of Operation TZUK EITAN (the 2014 Gaza War) was published in early 2017. It revealed serious instances of misconduct in the intelligence community dating several years prior to the operation. Yet this severe criticism passed below the public’s radar and was practically ignored, while no actions were taken against IDF and ISA security personnel that were shown to have acted irresponsibly.

I would like to point to a number of stronger factors that led to the tragic complacency of October 7, drawn from the field of psychology. It relates to how a country (mainly through its intelligence analysts) perceives its enemies and how this affects the evaluations of said enemies. We know that there was a conception on the Israeli side that Hamas had no interest in attacking Israel at this stage. It seems that the State of Israel underestimated Hamas and its leader, Yahya Sinwar, based on the available evidence of Hamas and Sinwar. Read more of this post

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Analysis: Israel underestimated Hamas while overestimating its own capabilities

January 10, 2024 by Leave a comment

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Canadian judge bars Chinese PhD student from entering, citing espionage concerns

January 8, 2024 by 5 Comments

University of WaterlooIN AN UNPRECEDENTED AND potentially highly consequential decision, a judge has barred a Chinese PhD student from entering Canada over concerns he might be pressured to spy by the government of China. The case could have “ripple effects” on universities across Canada and possibly even all of North America, according to legal experts.

The central figure in the case is Yuekang Li, a citizen of China, who was accepted into the Mechanical and Mechatronics Engineering PhD program of the University of Waterloo. Li stated in his application that his goal was to return to his home country after receiving his PhD and work to “improve its public health system”. However, when Li applied for a graduate student visa, his application was denied by an officer of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), the government department that oversees applications for entry visas into the country.

In deeming Li inadmissible to Canada, the IRCC officer in charge of his case reportedly cited the student’s strong interest in microfluidics, a niche branch of nanotechnology with a wide range of applications in the biopharmaceutical industry. The IRCC officer also noted growing concerns in the West about the use of students and researchers as “non-traditional collectors of information” by the government in Beijing. In a number of such cases, Chinese students and researchers have been given permission by the Chinese state to work abroad with the understanding that they will deliberately collect information that will benefit China’s military-industrial complex.

Li promptly challenged the IRCC’s decision, which ended up being heard in Federal Court. Li’s legal representatives argued that the rejection of his application for a student visa relied on “an overly broad definition of espionage” and engaged in “speculation”, rather than factual evidence. But on December 22, Federal Court Chief Justice Paul Crampton sided with the IRCC.

In his decision, which was made available late last week, the judge agrees with the IRCC’s view that the graduate research Li proposed to carry out at the University of Waterloo would fall under the definition of “non-traditional espionage”. He referred to China as a “hostile actor” and cautioned that such actors “increasingly make use of non-traditional methods to obtain sensitive information in Canada or abroad, contrary to Canada’s interests”. Given that new reality, Canada’s legal understanding of what constitutes “espionage” must evolve”, Judge Crampton argues in his decision.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 08 January 2024 | Permalink

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Analysis: Killing of Hamas leader in Lebanon marks a new phase in Israel’s war

January 3, 2024 by 2 Comments

Dahiyeh BeirutMIDDLE EAST OBSERVERS WERE hardly surprised by yesterday’s news of the apparent assassination of Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri in Lebanon. Not only was al-Arouri a senior Hamas official, but he also headed the militant group’s contact team with Lebanese Hezbollah and its Iranian patrons. He was likely at the top of Israel’s permanent assassination list even prior to Hamas’ bloody assault on Israel last October 7. Yet, within the explosive content of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, Tuesday’s assassination signals the opening of a new and highly unpredictable phase in an already uncertain conflict.

The vague statements issued by Israeli officials in response to the news of al-Arouri’s assassination did little to dispel the broadly accepted view that Israel’s intelligence services were behind the killing. Headed by its external intelligence agency, the Mossad, Israel’s intelligence services have a long history of extrajudicial assassinations. In his seminal book Rise and Kill First, the Israeli investigative journalist Ronen Bergman discusses in detail the history of these assassinations, which predate the postwar establishment of the state of Israel. Bergman’s data-rich research reveals that the Israeli intelligence services have performed approximately 2,700 extrajudicial assassinations in their history —more than any Western state.

Given such a prolific history of targeted killings, al-Arouri’s assassination in Beirut can be described as both expected and unremarkable. Indeed, Israeli officials have stated repeatedly since October 7 that Hamas’ senior leadership will be targeted worldwide. In a leaked recording that emerged last month, Ronen Bar, director of the Israeli Security Agency, was heard announcing to members of Israel’s Knesset that Hamas’ senior leadership would be targeted “in Gaza, in the West Bank, in Lebanon, in Turkey, in Qatar, everywhere”.

At the time the recorded conversation leaked, nobody thought that Bar, a seasoned intelligence officer, was bluffing. Indeed, the operational capabilities and reach of the Mossad are well understood by everyone in the Middle East. That al-Arouri was assassinated in southern Beirut’s Dahiyeh suburb is significant. An undisputed Hezbollah stronghold, Dahiyeh is tightly controlled by the Shiite militant group, which prides itself on ensuring the safety of its residents. Yesterday’s assassination at the very heart of Hezbollah’s lair was nothing short of a demonstration of the Mossad’s competency in special operations.

If Israel is truly intent on neutralizing the leadership of Hamas, Mossad’s competency will be increasingly tested in the coming months, as the Jewish state will have to strike repeatedly beyond its borders. This is because, unlike the beleaguered Gazans, who are currently experiencing the most destructive bombing campaign of the 21st century, most leaders of Hamas live in relative luxury in Doha, Ankara, Beirut, Damascus, and other Middle Eastern metropolitan centers. It is there, and not in the razed neighborhoods of Khan Yunis and Jabalia, that Israeli assassination teams will need to operate with increasing dexterity. Read more of this post

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China’s spy agency emerges as formidable adversary to CIA, according to report

January 1, 2024 by 2 Comments

United States ChinaTHE UNITED STATES CENTRAL Intelligence Agency (CIA) has sharply stepped up its activities on China, but Chinese espionage operations remain formidable and continue to pose challenges for American decision-makers, a new report claims. Citing “interviews with more than two dozen current and former American officials and a review of internal Chinese corporate documents and public [Chinese government] documents”, the New York Times said last week that China’s main intelligence agency the, Ministry for State Security (MSS) is “now going toe-to-toe with the CIA in collection and subterfuge around the world”.

The unprecedented growth of the MSS, according to the paper, is occurring despite the fact that the CIA has doubled its budget on China under the presidency of Joe Biden. The American spy agency also launched a new China Mission Center under its current director, William J. Burns. A major concern for the CIA is reportedly the intense Chinese focus on cutting-edge technologies, such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced semiconductor design and manufacture. For this reason, the CIA’s China Mission Center works closely with the agency’s Technology Intelligence Center, claims the paper.

Through these and other efforts, American intelligence officials have reportedly concluded that the “urgency and intensity of technological espionage” by Chinese spy agencies has increased beyond parallel. According to the New York Times, the technological advancements taking place in the state-supported Chinese private sector and the military, known as the People’s Liberation Army, “are surprising the US government”. For this reason, the CIA has focused intensely on “rebuilding a network” of assets within China, a decade after Chinese counterintelligence managed to neutralize CIA operations on Chinese soil.

But the MSS is also increasing its output and “making its own aggressive moves abroad”, says the paper. Unlike Russian intelligence agencies, the MSS does not have a tradition of planting undercover spies inside the United States. Instead, MSS operatives prefer to operate online through front companies with innocuous-sounding names. They use these companies to recruit assets among Chinese expatriates, ethnic Chinese Westerners, and Americans without any ethnic connection to China. Many targets for Chinese intelligence recruitment are members of the scientific, academic, and business communities, the New York Times reports.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 01 January 2024 | Permalink

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Veteran Belgian politician was a spy for Chinese intelligence, report alleges

December 18, 2023 by 4 Comments

MSS ChinaA LONGTIME BELGIAN POLITICIAN worked as a spy for Chinese intelligence for at least three years, according to a joint investigation by a consortium of European news media. Until last week, the politician, Frank Creyelman, 62, was a leading member of Vlaams Belang, a far-right separatist party that draws nearly the entirety of its support from northern Belgium’s Dutch-speaking Flemish regions. In addition to seeking to separate Flanders from Belgium, Vlaams Belang opposes immigration and multiculturalism, with much of its criticism directed at Islam.

From 1995 until 2014, Creyelman served as a member of the Flemish Parliament or the Belgian Senate, representing the Antwerp Province. During that time, he became known for his pro-Russian views, which he continued to propagate in retirement. In 2021, he voiced strong skepticism against the Belgian government’s efforts to provide diplomatic, financial, and military support to Ukraine. Following his retirement from frontline politics, Creyelman became an honorary member of the Flemish Parliament. He also remained chairman of Vlaams Belang in his home city of Mechelen, a Dutch-speaking stronghold.

Last week, however, a joint investigation by the British newspaper The Financial Times, French newspaper Le Monde and German newsmagazine Der Spiegel, claimed that Creyelman worked as a spy for China for at least three years. Citing unnamed “intelligence officials from four Western countries”, the investigation claimed that Creyelman had been recruited by Daniel Woo, a case officer for China’s Ministry of State Security. Woo is believed to work out of the MSS branch in China’s far-eastern province of Zhejiang, though he has also served tours in Europe under diplomatic cover, including in Romania and Poland.

It is not known how the MSS recruited Creyelman. It appears that most of his communication with his alleged MSS handler took place via text messages. However, it is claimed that in 2019 Creyelman traveled to Sanya, a popular tourist resort in China’s Hainan Island, where he allegedly met Woo and possibly other MSS operatives. Notably, the journalists behind the investigation into Creyelman claim that they have accessed incriminating messages exchanged between Creyelman and Woo. The text messages span the period between early 2019 and late 2022.

In the text messages, Woo asks Creyelman to try to influence senior-level discussions in Belgium and elsewhere concerning China’s treatment of its ethnic Muslim populations in the Xinjiang Province. The far-right politician was also instructed to find ways to vilify and discredit European researchers and academics who were documenting China’s treatment of ethnic Muslims in Xinjiang. Woo also asked Creyelman to try to quell criticism of China’s crackdown of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong. In one message, Woo explained that China’s purpose was “to divide the US-European relationship”.

Last Friday, just hours after the allegations about Creyelman’s alleged espionage emerged, Vlaams Belang announced that it had expelled him from its ranks. In a social media post, the party’s leader, Tom Van Grieken, denounced Creyelman’s espionage as going “against the purpose and essence, even the name, of our party”. He added: “The only loyalty for nationalists can only be to their own nation”.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 18 December 2023 | Permalink

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A senior American diplomat spied for Cuba for 42 years. How serious is this case?

December 11, 2023 by 4 Comments

Victor Manuel RochaLAST WEEK THE UNITED States Department of Justice announced the arrest of Victor Manuel Rocha, 73, a former senior American diplomat, whose career included stints as ambassador and advisor to the National Security Council and the United States Southern Command. Cuban intelligence allegedly recruited Rocha when he was a student in the 1970s and inspired him to spend his entire professional life in search of opportunities to supply intelligence to Cuba —and possibly Russia and China. United States Attorney General Merrick Garland said Rocha’s case was “one of the highest-reaching and longest-lasting infiltrations” of the US government by a foreign agent. This may be an understatement.

A STORIED CAREER IN GOVERNMENT

Rocha was born in Colombia in 1950, but grew up in New York City after his mother emigrated to the United States. In 1965, the studious Rocha earned a full-ride scholarship to a prestigious boarding school in Connecticut. This enabled him to earn an undergraduate degree from Yale University in 1973, before completing master’s degrees in public administration and foreign affairs from Harvard University and Georgetown University.

After receiving his security clearance from the Department of State, Rocha relied on his advanced social skills and native command of the Spanish language to quickly rise through the ranks of the diplomatic corps. Within a decade he had served prestigious assignments in Argentina, Honduras, Italy, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic, where he held the post of deputy chief of mission. In the mid-1990s, Rocha served as deputy principal officer in the United States Interests Section in Cuba —effectively the second-in-command in Washington’s de facto embassy in Havana.

Rocha’s diplomatic career culminated with the post of ambassador to Bolivia, from which he abruptly resigned in 2002. He did so reportedly in order to pursue employment in the private sector and raise funds for his children’s college education. Prior to the end of his State Department career, however, Rocha had managed to hold posts as a Latin America adviser to the National Security Council, which is the highest executive decision-making body of the United States government. He had also served as an adviser to the United States Southern Command (USSOUTHCOM), which oversees all activities of the Department of Defense in Central and South America, including the Caribbean.

FORMING REVOLUTIONARY LEFTIST IDEALS

By 1978, when he became a United States citizen, the young Rocha had spent time in Chile. While there, he witnessed first-hand the turbulence of Chilean politics in the lead-up to the military coup of 1973, which cut short the presidency of leftist icon Salvador Allende. Washington’s role in the coup, and in the ensuing junta of General Augusto Pinochet, appears to have steered Rocha’s politics decisively to the left. It was in fact in Chile where, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Rocha was recruited by the Dirección de Inteligencia (DI, also referred to by its former acronym, DGI). Read more of this post

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The OSINT factor in Hamas’ operational success and Israel’s intelligence failure

December 5, 2023 by 1 Comment

Hamas GazaIT HAS BECOME CLEAR that Hamas had up-to-date intelligence on Israeli targets prior to the attack on October 7, 2023, the largest and most devastating terrorist attack in Israel’s history. Hamas did not have access to clandestine information sources but rather relied on open-source intelligence (OSINT) to understand the structure and weaknesses of Israel’s defense system along the border fence. In addition to publicly available maps, Hamas meticulously gathered online intelligence about specific sites within the Israeli communities near the Gaza Strip.

It is also possible that some of the intelligence came from human intelligence (HUMINT) sources, largely through Gazan workers who were employed in Israel. Moreover, Hamas had access to constant Israeli media broadcasts, which supplied them with invaluable intelligence on the border communities and adjacent military facilities, as well as on communities that were located further to the north and east. Although the Israeli state exercises censorship in the Q Quoteinterests of national security, the public’s ‘right to know’ purview is substantial. Thus, significant amounts of information are available online.

In assessing the behavior of Hamas in recent years, one can observe that it did not act as a terrorist group for quite some time. Rather, it operated as a government organization, while monitoring its enemy and waiting patiently for an opportune moment to attack. Simultaneously, Hamas utilized disinformation tools to conceal its attack plans. It trained its fighters within commando units that employed information effectively and relied on actionable intelligence, rather than chance. This can be observed from interrogations of Hamas members who were detained by Israeli authorities after October 7. In one example, Hamas used detailed maps of Israeli communities near the Gaza border, which are available on Google Earth, to plan its attacks of October 7. Printouts of these maps were found among the belongings of Hamas assailants that were killed during the attacks.

Some in Israel are now advocating for increased protection of OSINT, particularly for Israeli sites related to security, including civilian first-response units, defense systems guarding settlements, and civil technological assets. However, implementing such measures within the current framework of Israel’s open society seems challenging. Despite the known importance of OSINT to Hamas and its potential risk to Israel’s security, significant changes in this regard may not occur, as they could impact the country’s democratic values. However, it is still possible to improve the quality of security censorship regarding sensitive civilian information that can be used by adversaries. Such moves would include protecting databases, limiting information relating to the addresses of senior officials, or putting in place stricter policies on the movement of Gazan workers in Israel.

Contrary to Hamas’, Israel’s OSINT systems underperformed in the run-up to the October 7 attacks. That was so especially after the central OSINT unit of the Israeli Military Intelligence was dissolved, for reasons that remain to be investigated. CNN was among many news outlets that have revealed how Hamas advertised its military drills on social media, but somehow Israeli intelligence failed to pay attention to them.

When Hamas openly declared its intention to attack communities near the Gaza border, and trained its units for that purpose, the Israeli intelligence community, including the IMI and the Israel Security Agency (ISA), underestimated its real attack capabilities based on OSINT materials. This miscalculation stemmed from incorrectly assessing Hamas’s capabilities and overestimating the Israel Defense Forces’ ability to swiftly respond and prevent the attack on civil and military targets. Unfortunately, this assessment proved to be a significant mistake.

The effective use of OSINT lies at the heart of Hamas’ operational plan to attack simultaneously several Israeli targets and to cause extensive damage. It appears that Hamas was able to utilize the OSINT factor to its maximum extent, thus adding significant value to the success of the attack.

► Author: Dr. Avner Barnea | Date: 05 December 2023 | Permalink

Dr. Avner Barnea is research fellow at the National Security Studies Center of the University of Haifa in Israel. He served as a senior officer in the Israel Security Agency (ISA). He is the author of We Never Expected That: A Comparative Study of Failures in National and Business Intelligence (Lexington Books, 2021).

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US is helping Israel detect intelligence blind spots and locate Hamas leaders: report

December 4, 2023 by 4 Comments

UNITED STATES INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES are actively assisting Israel identify the intelligence blind spots that led to the security failure of October 7, and locate senior Hamas leaders, according to the chair of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. Representative Mike Turner (R-OH) said during an interview on Sunday with CBS’s Face the Nation that American intelligence agencies are “working closely” with the Israeli intelligence community.

The purpose of the collaboration is to find intelligence “gaps” and identify the “institutional bias that resulted in” Israeli intelligence officials dismissing warnings about a potential attack by Hamas in the months leading to October 7. The United States is also providing Israel with “selective […] information” about Hamas targets, including senior Hamas officials. Turner noted that “we are not just providing direct access to our intelligence” and that “caution” is being used in determining the types of intelligence that United States agencies are sharing with Israel.

Turner’s comments come less than a week after The New York Times reported that Israeli intelligence had managed to obtain Hamas’ detailed battle plan for the October 7 attack in 2022. It was a 40-page document, written in Arabic, which allegedly contained the precise details of Hamas’ attack plan, but did not specify a date. Senior intelligence officials dubbed the battle plan “Jericho Wall”, but dismissed it as purely aspirational and thought it too elaborate to be carried out in practice.

On November 27, Israel’s Channel 12 television revealed a series of leaked emails from officers in Israel’s 8200 Intelligence Corps unit of the Israel Defense Forces. The emails reportedly raised concerns about an impending attack by Hamas in southern Israel. According to Channel 12, the Unit 8200 emails provided a “highly detailed warning” about Hamas’ plans to take over Israeli villages near the Gaza Strip and kill hundreds of Israelis. However, senior military officials dismissed the plans as “an imaginary scenario”.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 04 December 2023 | Permalink

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South Korean president fires nation’s spy chiefs in major intelligence shake-up

November 27, 2023 by 1 Comment

NIS South Korea - IAIN A SURPRISING MOVE that has stirred curiosity across Asia, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has abruptly ousted the entire senior leadership of the National Intelligence Service (NIS), a powerful entity in the country. The announcement came through a statement released on Sunday by the Office of the President, stating that President Yoon had accepted the resignations of the NIS director and two deputy directors. However, it is widely understood that these resignations were not voluntary but rather a result of pressure exerted by the president.

Among those dismissed, Director Kim Kyou-huyn and First Deputy Director Kwon Chun-taek, both considered close to President Yoon, had lengthy backgrounds in South Korea’s diplomatic corps. Kim, a seasoned executive with deep insights into South Korea-United States relations, had served lengthy tours in the South Korean embassy in Washington. Kwon, with experience in the diplomatic corps and roles at the United Nations, also had a strong international background. Yoon had appointed both to lead the NIS soon after assuming the presidency in May 2022. The third ousted NIS executive was Second Deputy Director Kim Soo-youn, appointed by Yoon in June 2022. The second deputy traditionally oversees activities related to North Korea, while the first deputy is responsible for the agency’s global collection operations, counterterrorism, and counterintelligence.

Speculation in Seoul abounds regarding the reasons behind President Yoon’s swift decision to dismiss the NIS leadership. A firebrand politician who is seen as a representative of a new generation of South Korean conservatives, Yoon has pledged a robust security and defense policy in response to perceived North Korean provocations. Recent media reports have hinted at Yoon’s impatience with bureaucratic obstacles within the NIS, particularly regarding personnel management.

South Korean media reports indicate that another seasoned diplomat, Hong Jang-won, has assumed the NIS first deputy directorship, while the former North Korea area chief, Hwang Won-jin, has taken over as the second deputy director. Notably, the director position remains vacant, with Hong temporarily leading the agency until a new director is appointed in the coming weeks.

► Author: Ian Allen | Date: 27 November 2023 | Permalink

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Italy investigating suspicious cash withdrawals by Russian embassy staffers in Rome

November 20, 2023 by 3 Comments

Embassy of Russia in ItalyAUTHORITIES IN ITALY ARE investigating a series of suspicious cash withdrawals that were made from accounts belonging to the Russian embassy in Rome, according to reports in the Italian press. On November 14, the Rome-based daily La Repubblica reported that the Financial Intelligence Unit (UIF) of the Bank of Italy had launched a probe to uncover out exactly who made the cash withdrawals and who the money might have gone to.

According to the Italian newspaper, Russian diplomatic personnel withdrew nearly €4 million ($4.35 million) in cash from two accounts belonging to the Russian embassy in Rome. Russian embassy staffers reportedly withdrew the €4 million on 21  separate instances, sometimes in portions amounting to €100,000 at a time. The withdrawals drew the attention of the UIF, which is now reportedly investigating the withdrawals.

La Repubblica said that UIF investigators are anchoring their probe on several hypotheses. These include the possibility that the cash withdrawals were meant to bypass the progressively stricter financial sanctions that the European Union has been imposing on Moscow. The bulk of these sanctions began shortly February 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Notably, Russian embassy staffers started to withdraw the funds almost immediately after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.

The correlation between the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the cash withdrawals has led Italian authorities to entertain another hypothesis, namely that Rome embassy staffers have been using the cash to pay Russian intelligence personnel working without a diplomatic cover in Italy and elsewhere in Europe. A third hypothesis is that Russian intelligence personnel have been using the cash to support information operations that target European audiences. According to La Repubblica, the cash could have been used for “paying influencers to espouse the Kremlin’s cause in Italy, thus influencing public opinion”.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 20 November 2023 | Permalink

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France accuses Russia of disinformation campaign using Star of David graffiti in Paris

November 13, 2023 by Leave a comment

Star of David graffitiTHE FRENCH GOVERNMENT HAS accused Russia of carrying out a disinformation campaign using stenciled images of Stars of David that mysteriously appeared in the streets of Paris late last month. The stars, between 60 and 80 in number, were found in the 14th arrondissement of the French capital, as well as in several Parisian suburbs in the early hours of October 31. The stars (see accompanying picture) are all blue and all have the same size. They appear to have been hurriedly stenciled and have no accompanying text.

A statement issued on November 8 by the prosecutor for the city of Paris, Laure Beccuau, said that police had identified and arrested a man and a woman in connection with the graffiti. Referencing surveillance camera footage, Beccuau’s statement said the two suspects had stenciled the stars overnight, working in unison with a third individual who took photographs of the graffiti. The statement added that the alleged perpetrators of the graffiti may have contacts with another couple, consisting of an unnamed 28-year-old Moldovan woman and a 33-year-old Moldovan man. Police had arrested the Moldovans in Paris on October 27, for painting the same stenciled Start of David on a building in Paris.

The statement by the Paris prosecutor alleges that both couples had been in contact “with the same third party”, a Russian-speaking individual who had offered to pay them in exchange for graffitiing the stars. “It therefore cannot be ruled out that the tagging of the blue Stars of David in the Paris region was carried out at the explicit request of a person living abroad”, the statement concludes. Some reports speculated that the graffiti may have been part of a campaign by a “foreign actor trying to undermine French social cohesion”.

Last Thursday, the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs openly accused Russia for carrying out a disinformation campaign aimed at amplifying the Star of David graffiti on social media, allegedly in order to discredit France. The ministry said the disinformation campaign reflected “a persisting opportunistic and irresponsible strategy of using international crises to create confusion and tensions in the public debate in France and in Europe”. Later on the same day, the Embassy of the Russian Federation in Paris issued a statement on social media, condemning France’s “groundless attempts to seek out a ‘Russian connection’ in events having no connection with our country and pin responsibility on Russia with the sole aim of discrediting it”.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 13 November 2023 | Permalink

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