Opinion: The Mossad’s plan to overthrow the regime in Iran was leaked

ON SUNDAY MARCH 22, The New York Times reported that the United States and Israel launched the war in Iran with a central strategic assumption: that external military pressure on Iran could trigger internal unrest and bring about regime collapse. According to the paper, this expectation was shaped in part by Israeli intelligence assessments, particularly from Israel’s external intelligence agency, the Mossad, which argued that Iranian society was sufficiently discontented to rise up if given the right catalyst. This failed concept, which was chiefly propagated by Mossad Director David Barnea, gained traction within the U.S. administration of Donald Trump and became embedded in broader war planning assumptions, according to The Times.

In Israel, reactions to the article focused primarily on the question of who had an interest in leaking this information to The Times. The leak, which Israeli national security analysts confirmed as accurate, seemed intended to find a scapegoat. It aimed to hold the head of the Mossad responsible in the eventuality that the war did not achieve its goals. Some thought Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself may have been behind the leak.

This impression may have been fueled by Netanyahu’s typical behavior since the October 7, 2023, blunder. The Israeli prime minister has tended to appropriate the Mossad’s operational successes—including the 2024 electronic device attacks targeting the Lebanese paramilitary group Hezbollah. In contrast, his conduct during the war against Hamas in Gaza has been wildly different. He has evaded responsibility for all shortcomings and has placed blame for the intelligence failures on Ronen Bar, head of the Israeli Security Agency (ISA), and for the lack of a rapid response by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi.

The situation is more complex in the case of Iran. So far, Mossad head Barnea has been largely shielded from negative media reports reportedly linked to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s circle. Analysis of The New York Times article suggests two possible sources for the leak: senior American officials, or members of the Israeli security establishment—which might reflect internal tensions.

The first—and more probable—possibility is that the leaks originate from Netanyahu’s own office. This may reflect reputed internal rivalries between the IDF and the Mossad. Within the IDF, military leaders have attempted to describe Israel’s war effort as divided into two camps. One camp consists of the IDF, which includes the Air Force and the Military Intelligence Directorate (MID), both of which are responsible for war operations. The other camp consists of the Mossad, whose purported task in this effort has been to provoke mass demonstrations insider Iran. According to optimistic Mossad assessments, these protests would precipitate the regime’s overthrow and its replacement with a more moderate, Western-friendly leadership. Apparently, however, in talks with the Israeli cabinet and the CIA, the Mossad never fully guaranteed that the Iranian regime would fall—and certainly not quickly.

The second possible source of the leak is an alleged attempt by senior officials in the White House, the National Security Council, and part of the American intelligence community, to place responsibility on Israel for the apparent failure to achieve the war’s goals. These senior officials include high-ranking White House advisors, National Security Council members, and intelligence agency leaders. They reputedly did this, not only to conceal U.S. President Donald Trump’s arrogance in entering the war campaign, but also in response to his frustration with the grim reality he now faces. Their opposition to the war from the start played a role, as do their concerns about the ensuing economic burdens, such as the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, rising oil prices, and fears of inflation. These officials are trying to paint an inaccurate picture. They suggest Netanyahu, Barnea, and Chief of Staff Lt. Col. Eyal Zamir dragged Trump into the war. Zamir visited the United States before the war and met with his American counterparts. These Israeli leaders allegedly promised Trump a speedy victory that would bring about the overthrow of the regime.

It should be remembered that President Trump himself urged the Iranian public to stay home during the war. Meanwhile, Barnea, as head of the Mossad, conceived and presented a detailed, multi-stage plan aimed at creating the conditions for a possible regime change in Iran—a process intended to unfold over months or even a year, according to Israeli estimates.

The Mossad continues to carry out significant covert operations on Iranian soil. It is contributing to the war effort. This is reflected, among other things, in obtaining accurate intelligence that allows for the assassinations of senior Revolutionary Guard and Basij officials. The Mossad is in possession of such detailed knowledge on Iran that it is difficult to imagine it would present such an inaccurate picture to Barnea. It is also unlikely Barnea would then pass it on to the American administration and the Israeli cabinet.

Even if Netanyahu is not directly responsible for the leak, it ultimately serves his interests. If the war’s objectives are not met, if the military struggles, or if the conflict drags on, Netanyahu can deflect responsibility by claiming he followed expert advice, referring to Mossad chief Barnea and other security officials.

► Author: Avner Barnea* | Date: 06 April 2026 | Permalink

* Dr. Avner Barnea is a research fellow at the National Security Studies Center of the University of Haifa in Israel. He served as a senior officer in the Israel Security Agency (ISA). He is the author of We Never Expected That: A Comparative Study of Failures in National and Business Intelligence (Lexington Books, 2021).