Ex-CIA analyst says North Korea will launch strikes against South

North and South KoreaBy IAN ALLEN | intelNews.org |
A former senior analyst on North Korea at the United States Central Intelligence Agency believes that the communist state will launch limited strikes against the South before moving to de-escalate the ongoing crisis in the Korean peninsula. On March 27, Pyongyang announced it was withdrawing from  the Korean Armistice Agreement, which it signed along with the United Nations and China at the end of the Korean War, in 1953. Shortly afterwards, North Korea closed all border connections with the South and disconnected the direct telephone line linking it with Seoul. It subsequently declared that it would not hesitate to launch a preemptive nuclear strike against South Korea and the United States. Pyongyang heightened its rhetoric in response to Key Resolve/Foal Eagle, a two-month-long military exercise involving US and South Koran armed forces, which includes the deployment of nuclear-armed airplanes and ships. Although some expert observers are worried, few believe that the rhetorical boxing-match between the two Koreas will result in an outbreak of hostilities. But Columbia University Professor Sue Mi Terry, who headed the CIA’s North Korea analysis unit from 2001 to 2008, believes that Pyongyang will launch military strikes against Seoul before de-escalating the tension. Speaking to Wired magazine’s Danger Room blog, Terry noted that the attack will not be nuclear, nor will it involve mass use of military force. Instead, it will be “a relative small attack” that “won’t leave many people dead”, she said. She added that the attack will be “something sneaky and creative” that would allow the North Korean regime to drum it up at home while officially disassociating itself from it, thus avoiding international condemnation or immediate retaliation by Washington or Seoul. Like many North Korea observers, Terry believes that the primary political goal of the North Korean government is its very political survival. It therefore wishes to avoid “an all-out war with South Korea”, which “would spell the end of the North Korean regime”, she says. She also told Danger Room that the administration of US President Barack Obama would be able to restrain the South Korean government of President Park Geun Hee from responding with the use of force to a small-scale attack by the North.

11 Responses to Ex-CIA analyst says North Korea will launch strikes against South

  1. Zzzoney64 says:

    Why don’t we all just let North Korea and South Korea defend themselves and all allies stay out of it. May the best man or woman win. Russia, China, and US must agree to not intervene or assist in weapons or money. both sides seem anxious to get it on. All foreign forces can leave South Korea and then….”Let’s get it on!!!”

  2. peterrocker says:

    It almost seems a nightmarish version of Peter Sellers in “The Mouse That Roared”

  3. Harry Mahan says:

    Do you think maybe as we’re leaving we could leave S Korea with a little hydrogen to help them in their endeavors? say maybe 25 megatons

  4. TFH says:

    ” … the primary political goal of the North Korean government is its very political survival”

    The N-Korean public wouldn’t even know about the joint exercise of S-Korea and USA had they not been told. So its those that would know, generals, ministers and other power-players in the regime the new leader is playing strongman to. So one can assume that his position must be weak if he is willing to go to these lengths.

    The closing of the industrial zone on the countries border might be more than offensive gesture towards S-Korea, perhaps it´s also a sign of that internal power struggle. Some of the higher ups in the north are loosing lots of money/power because of that closure, perhaps those somebody are/were a risk to the leader and needed to have their wings clipped?

  5. With no geographical borders in cyber space and the multitude of bloggers and journalists available on this planet no one nation is totally private or without vulnerability.
    That’s what’s good about Apple, Microsoft, Samsung hand helds and the location capability with good streaming of audio and video with appropriate addons and extensions to simplify the information sharing process. Google Earth should be be joined with device location and auto mapping in 3D and recording live. All recordings auto sent to file for e-mail to specific contacts. What’s the problem? We can drop baloons with these devices attached from high altitudes and get critical images and data on troop and weapons movements. Who cares about a few thousand audio and video transmitting devices or whatever, it is worth it and doesn’t risk the soldiers lives. If the people in N. Korea started picking up fully loaded and ready “free” ipads and Galaxies it could start a wave..lol

  6. Pete says:

    Preferable would be some odd shelling of disputed islands (or military no-man’s-land) with a few dead goats to save face on both sides. Lets hope South Korea has placed its warships out of torpedo harms way (a la http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking ).

  7. davide says:

    just throw them a juicy bone.

  8. TA da says:

    Given the very closed nature of N. Korea, the stated goals of groups like Bilderberg (we have heard hints of a nuke attack on something as another false flag), etc how do we know any of this is real? Seriously. Pick an enemy, use your MSM who will lie for you – 911, Iraq war, etc all proven lies. We know Vietnam was started by us, we know just about every war was BS.

    Right now the US and it’s allies – especially obama is calculating. Is it worth the political capital to move now. Do they move now or wait. Lately they have been making huge strides towards their end goal, but at a huge cost. Exposure.

    We shall see.

  9. AlbertE. says:

    “the rhetorical boxing-match between the two Koreas” What exact rhetorical boxing match are they speaking about here. The rhetoric seems and IS one way and one sided. I do not hear ONE comment from Seoul threatening the NORTH. NOT ONE! So what is this comment about two Koreas and rhetorical boxing match?

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