How Did Israel Miss This Attack? Some Likely Explanations
October 9, 2023 7 Comments
THE HAMAS-LED OPERATION al-Aqsa Flood, which began on October 7, marked the first large-scale conflict within the borders of Israel since the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. However, unlike the coalition of Arab armies it faced in 1948, Israel now confronts an alliance of sub-state groups. Led by Hamas’ military wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, this alliance includes the Syrian- and Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad and a number of secular groups, such as the Fatah-aligned al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP).
Such groups are lesser-known than Hamas; however, they often bring with them expertise in niche areas, such as handling networks of informants inside Israel, building sophisticated explosives, employing unmanned combat drones, or procuring specialized weaponry. They are therefore likely to have contributed greatly to the outcome of Operation al-Aqsa Flood. Their participation also enabled Hamas to launch what essentially amounted to a combined arms assault on Israel. The latter included coordinated land, sea and air elements, which were purposefully low-tech. That may explain why the assailants were able to short-circuit and overwhelm the purportedly impregnable security perimeter that Israel maintains around the Gaza Strip.
Iranian and Lebanese Coaching
Putting aside the individual low-tech elements of the operation, its overall level of tactical organization almost certainly points to considerable support from actors beyond the Gaza Strip. Such actors likely include networks of informants within Israel, as well as possibly Iran and its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah. Both are well-versed in hybrid warfare and have studied Israeli defense systems more extensively than any other regional actor. Additionally, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah’s Lebanese Resistance Brigades are seasoned practitioners of deception operations. They likely coached Hamas, not only on how to carry out Operation al-Aqsa Flood, but more importantly on how to prevent Israel and its allies from gathering intelligence about it.
There is no question that an operation of such a magnitude must have taken months —possibly even years— to conceive, develop and organize. Such a complex process would have taken place under the watchful eyes and ears of Israeli and Egyptian intelligence agencies, who have historically faced little resistance in penetrating Palestinian militant groups, including Hamas. Yet none seem to have collected enough intelligence to anticipate the attack. It is equally stunning that the meticulous planning of Operation al-Aqsa Flood appears to have escaped the attention of American intelligence agencies, whose presence in the Middle East is significant. How was that even possible?
The answer to this puzzle is likely to relate to Iran. Its agents on the ground appear to have been able to meticulously assemble, fund and train a militant structure inside the Gaza Strip, which has been operating for quite some time in parallel to Hamas’ official structure. This parallel structure 
likely consists of highly committed and trustworthy —probably even polygraphed— individuals from various Palestinian groups. For several years, this elite structure has managed to operate in airtight secrecy from even seasoned members of the al-Qassam Brigades, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other Palestinian organizations with a presence in the Gaza Strip. If this line of reasoning is accurate, it is likely that the launch of Operation al-Aqsa Flood stunned even senior Palestinian militants in the Gaza strip in the early hours of October 7. Yet senior Iranian officials knew about it, and most likely so did Hezbollah’s leadership.
A Tactical and Strategic Surprise
It should be taken for granted that the planners of the attack adopted a truly hermetic approach to operational discretion. Yet it is unlikely that Israeli, Egyptian, Jordanian, Saudi, American, and other spy agencies, would have failed to collect at least some warning-intelligence about the attack —especially in recent weeks and days, as the planners intensified their preparations in Gaza. The level of surveillance in the Strip is simply too extensive for such a large-scale operation to have gone completely unnoticed. It is likely, therefore, that at least some warning signals reached the administration of Israel’s president Benjamin Netanyahu.
It is also probable, however, that Netanyahu’s highly politicized and embattled government kept its attention focused elsewhere —primarily on its own political survival, which has faced repeated threats of late, as Israel has edged close to what some observers warned could be civil war. Additionally, 
there have been allegations that Netanyahu’s pro-settler government focused largely on “protecting settlers in the West Bank [with troops] than it did on protecting kibbutzniks on the border with Gaza”. That could well be a central element in explaining the catastrophic tactical surprise that Israel suffered last weekend.
It is important to note that Operation al-Aqsa Flood is likely to represent, not simply a tactical, but also a strategic surprise for the Jewish state. As Martin Indyk argued in an emergency press briefing by the Council on Foreign Relations last Sunday, it is probable that the Israeli leadership misinterpreted Hamas’ strategic intentions. While Israel has feverishly engaged in normalizing its relations with a host of Arab countries in recent years, Hamas’ rejectionist militancy must have seemed at times almost like a relic of the past. Some might have even assumed that Hamas would adopt a “live-and-let-live approach” toward Israel, so long as it was allowed to rule its domain in the Gaza Strip. Yet such views proved to be illusionary, with disastrous results.
The Next Weeks
The government of Israel will undoubtedly investigate the causes behind this historic catastrophe —in due course. In the meantime it faces a momentous decision: should it, or should it not, launch a ground incursion into the Gaza Strip? If it does not, it risks leaving Hamas’ militant infrastructure largely intact. If it does, it faces the strong probability that Hezbollah will attack Israel from the north, not just with barrages of missiles, but with an incursion the size of which may well dwarf Operation al-Aqsa Flood. If it launches a ground attack, the Lebanese group will have the help of Iran, Iraqi Shi’a militias, Syrian volunteers, and even Taliban combat units, who recently pledged to help “conquer Jerusalem”. Meanwhile, deep divisions inside Israel will continue to color the government’s maneuvers in the coming weeks. These may well prove far more calamitous than Israel’s Arab adversaries.
► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 09 October 2023 | Permalink
intelNews.org 
TheThe solution to the situation appears to be bringing Gaza to its knees by completely preventing water, electricity, fuel and medicine. As soon as the situation there begins to turn into a large-scale humanitarian disaster, Israel will demand the full return of all the bodies and abductees in exchange for the restoration of the means of subsistence. Without these, electricity, water, food and medicine will not flow indefinitely. Israel will tell the world – either return the abductees or Gaza will kill itself.
In the meantime, the airstrikes on terrorist centers will continue, the destruction of the tunnel systems that still remain between Gaza and the Egyptians and the trampling of the border line between Israel and the Gaza Strip and the expulsion of the residents deep to the west and south. most viable solution right now is to bring Gaza to its knees by
hello, Après lecture voici ? The framework is a colossal failure; “the [defense] establishments simply failed to analyze it with far-reaching consequences.” Several U.S. officials were also reportedly surprised by the attacks; its movements are due to rotations from overseas deployments, which are the armed branches of attack planning subcontracting for things like communications, logistics, and maintenance planning made a huge difference in the surveillance of the intelligence services, let’s also not forget that the chosen days are not trivial to invade Israel
I am convinced that the information was inconsistent because we were not focused on Israel, said retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery. Montgomery also claimed that a senior U.S. military officer had returned to the United States in recent days, suggesting that such a thing would not have happened if Washington had known of an imminent attack. …
IDF Chief of Staff Moshe Dayan, Lecture to IDF Officers: “Retaliation Operations as a Means of Ensuring Peace”
According to the Hamas chief of staff, the Hamas offensive began shortly before 6:29 a.m. on October 7, 2023. By 10 a.m., IDF radars had detected approximately 002 rocket attacks on dozens of Israeli towns and villages between Gaza and the Tel Aviv-Jerusalem-Beersheva line. During the day, Hamas and other Palestinian militias shot several hundred more; The exact number has not yet been reported.
Recall of facts ? One of the terrorist groups reached a large nature party (like a rave party but held outdoors in nature) where around 3,000 young Israelis, mostly in their twenties, had gathered to dance…… They attacked them with grenades and assault rifles, then chased the fleeing group, tracking down the people who had sought to hide in the low brush…… This is probably the place where the greatest number of casualties were inflicted….. The IDF and police units that reached this area spent the last two days fighting the remaining terrorist teams and collecting survivors and bodies some in pieces….
Which also means to me, that it still means dozens of rockets that managed to hit Israeli towns and villages from within by the insurgents…. then, using explosives, crossed the surface obstacle of a steel bar fence and advanced into Israel. Observation cameras monitoring the fence were shot down with small arms and RPG rockets. One group attacked and captured the civilian crossing point into Israel at Erez, where 20,000 Palestinian civilians travel to Israel daily for work and hundreds of trucks carrying goods pass through. A small group crossed the border using paragliders (parachutes with small propeller motors) and a final group attacked from the sea, landing on an Israeli beach. (Of this group, only a few managed to get through; most were intercepted by Israeli naval patrol boats and attack drones)
In total, in the first few hours, more than 1,000 Hamas troops crossed the border into Israel in approximately 15 to 30 locations (different sources provided different numbers), then fanned out in groups to attack civilians and Israeli military positions.
The figure claimed by a Hamas spokesperson), including civilian men and women, the elderly, young children and soldiers were kidnapped and taken to Gaza. Hamas claims it placed them in underground facilities.
Shortly after 07:00 on October 8, Hezbollah fired a number of mortars at an Israeli strongpoint on the border with Lebanon. The IDF responded with artillery. At the time of writing, it is unclear whether this exchange was a harbinger of an escalation or an isolated incident.
In Egypt, an Egyptian police officer opened fire on an Israeli tourist bus, killing two people and injuring several others. He also killed an Egyptian.
;) ;) Iran’s envoy to the UN has denied any Iranian involvement. However, Iran’s support, physical support in funds and weapons, and exhortations have been documented behind the surge in terrorist attacks in and emanating from Judea and Samaria over the past two years. In 2019, there were 1,346 terrorist attacks against Israelis in or from Judea and Samaria; in 2020, there were 1,320. In 2021, the number jumped to 2,135 and in 2022, it increased again, to 2,613. From January to August 2023, there were 1,502 attacks against Israelis. Although there were several intense cycles of fighting on the Gaza border during the same period, most of the time this border was almost calm.
There is some logic to possible Iranian involvement in the current attack. Iran is deeply unhappy with progress in talks on a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia – a deal initiated largely as a cooperation treaty against the common Iranian threat. Just last week, Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, said Saudi Arabia was “betting on a losing horse.” The theory is that the current attack was intended to prove Israel’s weakness and give the Saudis second thoughts.
However, there is a weakness to this theory. A combined attack with Hezbollah would have seemed a better way to demonstrate Israel’s limitations. A Hezbollah offensive could still be in sight, but Israel is now more aware of this possibility and is preparing for it ;) ;)
WHY IS HAMAS SUCCESSFUL?
;) This is a question that will require very intensive investigation after the war.
;) The ultimate source of failure is entirely that of the intelligence services, which concluded that Hamas was more interested in the economic well-being of its population than in pursuing its ideological program by launching a war that would harm the well-being of this population. In line with this assumption, the government has made various decisions to help Gaza’s economy. But more importantly, the IDF assumed that the current scenario was simply not on the table and convinced the government that it was. How Hamas managed to plan, organize and assemble its forces without Israeli intelligence finding out will require very careful analysis once the war is over.
;) Here The text of the interrogation of a Hamas terrorist captured by the IDF has been published, and it illustrates the extent of the complete failure of the Israeli intelligence services. According to him : ;)
;) Hamas had been planning this attack for over a year.
Hamas was encouraged by the political protests in Israel, seeing it as a sign of Israeli weakness.
The riots of recent weeks led by Hamas were a deception to allow them to prepare their attack and hide the preparations.
The attacking force included 1,000 men who breached the border fence at 15 locations (as noted above, other sources claim other locations).
This terrorist and his unit were surprised that the IDF was not expecting them. They operated inside Israel for about five hours before encountering armed resistance.
AFTER THAT ?
;) As of this writing (early afternoon on October 8), a few active terrorists remain in Israel. The IDF is still busy clearing its territory of the remains of these Hamas teams ;) The question is what comes next.
I thank the IDF General Staff Moshe Dayan, Conference to IDF officers: “Retaliation Operations as a Means of Ensuring Peace”, for which I completed it according to the sources and my analysis, without releasing the entire text. report.
Have a good day of analysis Pascal ;)
I generally agree with this assessment – low tech definitely, and the players involved. Today’s generation have their heads down focused on their Smart phones instead of looking around themselves as to what’s transpiring in plain sight. A return to old-style HUMINT is required. This is the short answer, of course. The real answer is much longer and time consuming to solve.
Israel is totally powerless in this situation. Your “solution” would also cut off food, water and medicine to the hostages. Also: sudden challenges from Member States to the EU’s withdrawal of funding to Gaza suggests that international support for the siege is not limitless. Netanyahu (or whoever replaces him) will have to negotiate in the end.
Biden faces a Presidential election in less than a Year’s time. He’s doing horribly bad in the pre-election polling today. The Gaza Abomination Oct 7th War, it compares to the Covid-19 mass epidemic which destroyed the 3 amazing years wherein under President Trump’s fabulous leadership the President Made America Great Again.
I have worked in Gaza. Plus, my moving company assisted Israelis out of Gaza, in compliance with PM Sharon’s leadership tremendous decision. My moving trucks did not fly the orange ribbons of protest to PM Sharon’s unilateral decision. I witnessed the horrors of looking down from the edge of the cliff of that near catastrophic Civil War which took Israelis to the brink of a Lebanese or Syrian total destruction of our young nation.
Israel gave up all of Gaza to set up a Hong Kong model Island Palestinian State back in 2005. We gave them the famous Gush Katif organic farms and several amazing milk farms (assets which i personally saw with my own eyes) which consisted of an engineered rotating slab of cement, which floated upon a thin layer of water, which permitted milk-cows to independently depart from their milk stations, and return back to their pens.
This revolutionary milking methodology permitted, in about the same time-period of milking, approximately double the amount of cows in the same time-period, as it took in the standard T-bone milking system set-up, used across the world by dairy farms. These tremendous assets the Palestinians despised and immediately destroyed!
In the 2006 elections Hamas threw the PA, ie the Olso Accords out the window! Between 2007 to 2024 Hamas has attacked Israel four times resulting in Wars. The Hamas Charter calls for the total destruction of Israelis from the River to the Sea! Now we Israelis no longer feel generous toward these dune-coon rag-headed dhimmi Arab refugee pigs.
Proof that the South African genocide case heard before the corrupt UN court – complete and utter bull shit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uyghur_genocide
The Chinese government has committed a series of ongoing human rights abuses against Uyghurs and other ethnic and religious minorities in Xinjiang that is often characterized as genocide. Beginning in 2014, the Chinese government, under the administration of Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping, incarcerated more than an estimated one million Turkic Muslims without any legal process in internment camps.
Operations from 2016 to 2021 were led by Xinjiang CCP Secretary Chen Quanguo. It is the largest-scale detention of ethnic and religious minorities since World War II. The Chinese government began to wind down the camps in 2019. Amnesty International states that detainees have been increasingly transferred to the formal penal system.
Palestine: 1922 to 1948 R.I.P. Ben Gurion named the Independent Jewish State – Israel in 1948. Gazans in the 2006 elected Hamas as the government of Gaza. Following the Oct 7th Abomination Israel invaded Gaza.