Israelis with high-level clearances betted on military operations on Polymarket
February 23, 2026
by intelNews
A CIVILIAN AND A reservist with high-level classified access used Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confidential information to place bets on Polymarket regarding future Israeli military operations. Polymarket is among the most prominent platforms in the rapidly emerging cryptocurrency-based prediction market sector.
Polymarket users are invited to bet “yes” or “no” on whether specific events will occur. These events may relate to political, sporting, cultural, security, environmental, or other fields. Prediction market platforms such as Polymarket match buyers and sellers for each event and hold the funds until the event occurs.
An Israeli court permitted publication that the two individuals were identified during a joint operation conducted by the Israel Security Agency (ISA) and the police. According to the indictment, the civilian and the reservist are charged with serious security offenses, alleging that they placed bets on the Polymarket website based on classified military information. The indictment further states that, in the course of their IDF duties, they were exposed to the inside information on which they relied when making bets. The reservist had access to classified intelligence concerning future IDF operations, and the civilian opened an account on Polymarket and placed the bets.
At the conclusion of the investigation, after an evidentiary foundation had been established against the civilian and the reservist, the prosecutor’s office indicted them on charges of serious security offenses, bribery offenses, and obstruction of justice. According to a formal statement: “It should be noted that in June 2025, the two successfully bet on the occurrence of four security events in Israel related to Operation ‘Am Kalavi’ (the Israeli attack on Iran in June 2025). They wagered tens of thousands of dollars and were correct, with remarkable accuracy, in predicting: Israel will attack Iran on Friday; Israel will attack Iran by the end of June 2025; Israel will announce the end of the operation in Iran by July; Israel will attack Iran before July.” According to one source, they earned $150,000.
It was further stated that: “the execution of such bets, relying on secret and classified information, poses a real security risk to the activities of the IDF and to state security. The State of Israel views the acts attributed to the defendants with great severity and will act resolutely to thwart and bring to justice any person involved in the illegal use of classified information.” According to the findings of the investigation, no operational harm resulted from the Israeli attack on Iran in June 2025. The statement added: “The IDF will not tolerate this type of conduct. Following the incident, steps were taken, and procedures will be tightened across all IDF units to prevent similar incidents from recurring.”
The remaining details of the affair remain prohibited from publication for security reasons.
► Author: Avner Barnea* | Date: 23 February 2026 | Permalink
* Dr. Avner Barnea is a research fellow at the National Security Studies Center of the University of Haifa in Israel. He served as a senior officer in the Israel Security Agency (ISA). He is the author of We Never Expected That: A Comparative Study of Failures in National and Business Intelligence (Lexington Books, 2021).
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Israelis with high-level clearances betted on military operations on Polymarket
February 23, 2026 by intelNews Leave a comment
Polymarket users are invited to bet “yes” or “no” on whether specific events will occur. These events may relate to political, sporting, cultural, security, environmental, or other fields. Prediction market platforms such as Polymarket match buyers and sellers for each event and hold the funds until the event occurs.
An Israeli court permitted publication that the two individuals were identified during a joint operation conducted by the Israel Security Agency (ISA) and the police. According to the indictment, the civilian and the reservist are charged with serious security offenses, alleging that they placed bets on the Polymarket website based on classified military information. The indictment further states that, in the course of their IDF duties, they were exposed to the inside information on which they relied when making bets. The reservist had access to classified intelligence concerning future IDF operations, and the civilian opened an account on Polymarket and placed the bets.
At the conclusion of the investigation, after an evidentiary foundation had been established against the civilian and the reservist, the prosecutor’s office indicted them on charges of serious security offenses, bribery offenses, and obstruction of justice. According to a formal statement: “It should be noted that in June 2025, the two successfully bet on the occurrence of four security events in Israel related to Operation ‘Am Kalavi’ (the Israeli attack on Iran in June 2025). They wagered tens of thousands of dollars and were correct, with remarkable accuracy, in predicting: Israel will attack Iran on Friday; Israel will attack Iran by the end of June 2025; Israel will announce the end of the operation in Iran by July; Israel will attack Iran before July.” According to one source, they earned $150,000.
It was further stated that: “the execution of such bets, relying on secret and classified information, poses a real security risk to the activities of the IDF and to state security. The State of Israel views the acts attributed to the defendants with great severity and will act resolutely to thwart and bring to justice any person involved in the illegal use of classified information.” According to the findings of the investigation, no operational harm resulted from the Israeli attack on Iran in June 2025. The statement added: “The IDF will not tolerate this type of conduct. Following the incident, steps were taken, and procedures will be tightened across all IDF units to prevent similar incidents from recurring.”
The remaining details of the affair remain prohibited from publication for security reasons.
► Author: Avner Barnea* | Date: 23 February 2026 | Permalink
* Dr. Avner Barnea is a research fellow at the National Security Studies Center of the University of Haifa in Israel. He served as a senior officer in the Israel Security Agency (ISA). He is the author of We Never Expected That: A Comparative Study of Failures in National and Business Intelligence (Lexington Books, 2021).
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Filed under Expert news and commentary on intelligence, espionage, spies and spying Tagged with Avner Barnea, corruption, IDF, Israel, News, Polymarket, prediction markets