In rare public comments, Taiwan spy chief points to 2027 as key in China’s plans
May 5, 2023 1 Comment
IN A SERIES OF rare public comments, the director of Taiwan’s primary intelligence agency has singled out 2027 as a year of paramount significance for China’s military plans for Taiwan. On Thursday, Tsai Ming-yen (pictured), director-general of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau (NSB) since February, spoke to an audience of graduating students at Taiwan’s National Chung Hsing University in Taichung City. According to reports, it was the first time in a quarter of a century that an NSB director-general had addressed a university audience.
In addition to his speech at the Chung Hsing University, Director-General Tsai, a former deputy foreign minister and diplomat, gave a rare interview to the United States-based Bloomberg news agency. He refused to weigh in on the ongoing discussion about a timeframe for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But he singled out the year 2027 as a significant one for Chinese Premier Xi Jinping’s plans to modernize the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
The Chinese leader first introduced his “PLA Modernization 2035” plan in 2017, describing it as a whole-of-government effort to significantly improve the PLA’s combat capabilities as a step toward achieving China’s long-term goal of becoming a major global military power. Tsai pointed out that the year 2027 will be the 10-year mark into President Xi’s 18-year program of military reforms. Additionally, Xi will most likely be campaigning for a fourth presidential term that year, Tsai said.
In his interview with Bloomberg, Tsai said that President Xi “doesn’t allow any kind of different voice in the Chinese political system”. In essence, therefore, the Chinese leader has been surrounding himself with “a coterie of like-minded officials”. This resulting ‘groupthink’ means that “the risk of making a wrong decision” on pressing issues like Taiwan “will become much higher” in the coming years, he warned. To counter that threat, and to monitor China’s military intentions, Tsai said Taiwan is systematically deepening its real-time cooperation with its “international friends”, especially with the so-called “Five Eyes” alliance, an intelligence-sharing coalition comprising of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
In a separate development, the United States Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said on Thursday that the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (TSMC) would be a major cause for concern in a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The United States and other countries rely overwhelmingly on the TSMC’s production output for the use of semiconductors in civilian and military hardware. Should a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan prevent the TSMC from producing those semiconductors, the resulting impact on the global economy would be “enormous”, possibly in the neighborhood of “between $600 billion to $1 trillion on an annual basis for the first few years”, Haines said.
► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 05 May 2023 | Permalink
THE MOST SENIOR INTELLIGENCE officer in the United States has said in a letter that the nation’s system of classification is flawed and undermines its national security. This view was expressed by Avril Haines, who heads the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the body that directs and coordinates America’s 18 intelligence agencies. Haines, 52, was appointed to the position last year by President Joe Biden, and is seen as a potential reformist of the US intelligence community.
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Senior representatives of dozens of spy agencies held secret meeting in Singapore
June 5, 2023 by Joseph Fitsanakis 2 Comments
The Shangri-La Dialogue is typically attended by defense ministers of major Western powers and regional Asian powers, along with security and intelligence representatives from participating nations. However, the existence of a separate closed-door meeting of intelligence officials has never been reported before. On Saturday, the Reuters news agency cited discussions with “five sources”, who claimed that such a meeting occurred between June 2 and 4.
According to Reuters, the meeting was discreetly organized by the Singaporean government and held at a separate venue alongside the security summit. This type of meeting has reportedly been taking place annually for several years, but was previously undisclosed. The secret meeting is believed to have included representatives from approximately two dozen major intelligence agencies from countries such as the United States, China, and India. The United States intelligence community was represented by Avril Haines, the Director of National Intelligence, according to the news agency.
The Reuters report did not mention whether the Russian intelligence community participated in the event. When asked about the alleged secret meeting, a spokesperson from the Singapore Ministry of Defense said that participants at the Shangri-La Dialogue included “senior officials from intelligence agencies”, who “also take the opportunity to meet their counterparts”. The spokesperson added that the Singapore Ministry of Defense “may facilitate some of these bilateral or multilateral meetings”, because “participants have found such meetings held on the sidelines of the [main event] beneficial”.
The governments of the United States, China and India did not respond to requests for comment by Reuters.
► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 05 June 2023 | Research Credit: C.E. | Permalink
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