CIA working with Kurdish separatists to foment armed rebellion in northwestern Iran
March 5, 2026 1 Comment
THE UNITED STATES CENTRAL Intelligence Agency (CIA) is arming and training ethnic separatists in northwestern Iran with the goal of fomenting an armed rebellion against Tehran in the coming weeks, according to reports. Several news outlets, including CNN, report that Iranian Kurdish opposition forces are preparing to launch a ground operation in northwestern Iran “in the coming days”.
The nearly 10 million Kurds in Iran are one of the largest ethnic minorities in the country, concentrated in the mountainous western provinces bordering Iraq and Turkey. They are predominantly Sunni Muslims in a country governed by a Shia clerical state, creating both religious and ethnic tension. The central government has generally responded to calls for autonomy by various Kurdish factions with security crackdowns and suppression of dissent. Kurdish regions have been subject to heavy surveillance and military deployment, particularly during periods of regional instability.
British news outlet ITV reports that American and Israeli air strikes have consistently targeted Iranian military installations in western Iran in recent days, in an effort to degrade Tehran’s security assets in the region and provide Kurdish rebel forces with the ability to launch a successful armed campaign. According to ITV, Kurdish rebels have asked Israeli and American forces to provide air cover for an eventual ground campaign—though whether this request has been approved remains unknown.
According to Axios, US President Donald Trump spoke directly with Iraqi Kurdish leaders last weekend, seeking access to Iran’s Kurdish provinces through the Kurdish-controlled autonomous region of northern Iraq. Such access would allow the CIA and US Special Operations Forces to create a supply route for the provision of weapons and other war materiel to Iranian Kurdish rebels. The US president also spoke with at least one Iranian Kurdish leader on Tuesday, according to reports.
CNN said it reached out to the CIA about this story but the agency refused to comment on it.
► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 05 March 2026 | Permalink
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Classified US intelligence report suggests Iran regime unlikely to fall or change
March 9, 2026 by Joseph Fitsanakis 11 Comments
Composed of senior and highly respected intelligence analysts from across the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC), the NIC is tasked with producing classified strategic assessments on critical issues of concern to American decision-makers. Technically NIC reports represent the collective voice of all 18 intelligence agencies that make up the U.S. IC, and come as close as possible to the IC’s consensus view on pressing national security concerns.
According to The Washington Post, the NIC report outlines several scenarios for leadership succession in Iran, resulting from either a surgical “decapitation” campaign against specific elements of regime, or from a large-scale military assault against the entirety of the Iranian security state. It concludes that in both cases the Iranian regime is too entrenched and powerful to fall. Moreover, even in the event of “decapitation”, the regime has substantial human resources to keep replenishing its fallen military and civilian leaders, including the Supreme Leader.
Lastly, the NIC report concludes that the Iranian opposition within Iran and around the world is too disjointed, fragmented and disorganized to pose a credible alternative to the Iranian security state. While discussing a number of different potential scenarios for the takeover of power by the Iranian opposition, the NIC report concludes that such an eventuality remains “unlikely”, The Post reports.
The Post’s report appears to confirm earlier accounts by The New York Times and the Reuters news agency, which suggested that the consensus view among the U.S. IC is that, if killed, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would almost certainly be replaced by another hardliner, who would be ideologically opposed to both Israel and the West.
Notably, The Washington Post notes that the NIC report does not consider the possibility that the U.S. and Israel might decide to engage in a protracted ground war against Iran. Additionally, the report does not entertain the possibility that ethnic separatist forces within Iran—such as the Kurds, the Azeris or the Balochis—might revolt against Tehran, thus sparking a nationwide armed conflict.
► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 09 March 2026 | Permalink
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