Analysis: Spy agencies disagree on status of Iran’s nuclear program

M. Ahmadinejad

M. Ahmadinejad

Western intelligence agencies agree that Iran’s ultimate aim is to fortify its military posture with nuclear weapons. Putting aside, however, the broad concurrence of opinion about Iran’s long-term goal, very little is clear about the immediate status of the country’s nuclear program. Iran maintains that its goal is peaceful; namely to invest in nuclear energy so as to free up large quantities of oil for exports. It is important to stress that the consensus among America’s intelligence agencies is that this is in fact Iran’s immediate goal. This was pronounced in the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), a publicly available annual report cooperatively authored by the heads of all 16 US intelligence agencies. The 2007 report stated “with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program”.  The reality is that the existence of Iran’s second uranium enrichment plant –of which, incidentally, Western and Israeli intelligence agencies have been aware for years– does not necessarily contest the findings of the 2007 NIE. IntelNews editor Dr. Joseph Fitsanakis explains why this is so on the website of the Research Institute for European and American Studies. Read article →

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Expert news and commentary on intelligence, espionage, spies and spying, by Dr. Joseph Fitsanakis and Ian Allen.

One Response to Analysis: Spy agencies disagree on status of Iran’s nuclear program

  1. The Only reason I believe that Ahmadenijad has provoked the U.S. and Israel to a Confrontation is because they are advancing their Nuclear Operations to The Point that they [will] produce and probably [have produced] the Weapons Grade Urainium and have Plutonium at their Disposal too. This gives them the Insurance that they will have a Nuclear Defense without interruption, and knows also that the Iraq card they played which led to The Invaision of Iraq is also stinging in the lack of Intel we have on their Operations. So in the Psynapsis of that, we will either wait for The Intel on their Nukes, or Pull another Iraq on them too. It wasn’t such a Bad thing that we destroyed Saddam Hussains Ba-athist Party as the outcome looks like it coud be very effective to The War in Iraq, but to Destroy the Iranians with their Own Intel now thats a Master Plan Too! Even if we wait. Volunteer Intelligence

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