What will be Obama’s stance on warrantless wiretapping?

Back in the early stages of the presidential election campaign, US President-elect Barack Obama repeatedly came out against the increasing use of warrantless wiretapping by the National Security Agency (NSA). Eventually he switched sides and voted for the continuation of this program, which many in the legal profession condemn as essentially unconstitutional. Today The New York Times has published an article reminding the President-Elect’s transitional team that the Obama administration is likely to have to make some early decisions about the legal standing of the NSA’s domestic communications interception operations. This is because a number of groups have challenged the Justice Department’s sanctioning of warrantless wiretapping. Under directives from the Bush Administration the Department has so far blocked these challenges by claiming broad and undefined “national security and national secrets” clauses. Is the Obama Administration likely to continue this policy? His transition team has so far denied all requests to discuss domestic surveillance, or even how the President-elect plans to deal with this issue. It is indeed too early to tell. Yet considering some of the people Obama is thinking of appointing to high-level intelligence establishment positions, one may be excused for thinking the Bush Administration’s policy is likely to survive mostly intact the change of guard in the White House. [IA]

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US covert operations in Bolivia detailed

Counterpunch has published today a well-researched analysis piece by Roger Burbach (Director of the California-based Center for the Study of the Americas) detailing some of the recent covert operations by Washington in Bolivia. These operations do not appear to veer significantly from CIA’s (more or less standard) approach in Chile in the early 1970s, and include “direct and covert assistance to the opposition movement” in Bolivia’s energy-rich eastern provinces. USAID and the DEA are mentioned as core institutional elements in the US effort to destabilize the democratically elected Morales government. The article is available here. [IA]

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Russian Sleeper Agent Caught Spying on NATO

For the past year many in the know have been suspecting that the sophisticated Russian diplomatic maneuvers on the US missile defense shield are built on inside information on the project. Now a number of reports have emerged in the British press, pointing to a busting of what is probably an extensive network of Russian-handled spies in Estonia. Herman Simm, a high-level official at the Estonian defense ministry, has been arrested along with his wife on charges that he spied on behalf of Russian intelligence for over 10 years. Estonian and Western counterintelligence are still after his handler, who is known as “the Spaniard” because of his cover as a Spanish entrepreneur. Simm, who is described as a “sleeper” agent, was probably at the center of what can be said to be “the most serious case of espionage against NATO since the end of the Cold War”. This is not only because he was “responsible for handling all his country’s classified and top secret material on NATO”, but also because he was in charge of Estonia’s relatively advanced national cyber defense systems, as well as “for many years in charge of issuing security clearance[s]”. Perhaps more importantly, he is said to have been privy to crucial NATO information pertaining to the US missile shield project. No wonder an anonymous German official has described this latest Russian penetration of NATO as a “catastrophe”. This is not the first spy story to emerge out of Estonia since the end of the Cold War. Insiders will remember a story from ten years ago of a high-ranking Estonian police officer who defected to Britain on the run from FSB agents who were blackmailing him for recruitment purposes. [IA]

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Israeli military intelligence chief wants dialogue with Iran

The Bush Administration continues to equate dialogue with its perceived enemies with appeasement. Yet even the Israelis are now showing signs of abandoning this policy. Earlier today the head of Israel’s military intelligence, Major General Amos Yadlin, stated that he was “not opposed to direct talks between Iran and the United States”, because “dialogue is not appeasement”. He also expressed the elementary diplomatic axiom that the spectacular drop in oil prices has rendered Iran “very susceptible to international pressure”. Yadlin also described Barack Obama’s capture of the US Presidency as having been received “with a sigh of relief in the Middle East, with cautious hope for peace”. So much for hawkish Israeli hardliners who are said to have hijacked US foreign policy toward Iran. [JF]

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Iran said to deny reports of spy arrests

It appears that Iranian news agencies are now denying earlier reports by Reuters that ten people of unknown nationality (but allegedly working for the British secret service) were arrested in Iran’s southeastern border while trying to enter the country illegally. Interestingly, the arrestees were reportedly found to be in possession of sophisticated cameras, maps of selected areas in Iran and around $500,000 in cash —the latter a clear sign of a covert infiltration operation. The Iranian denial of the Reuters report is in fact more interesting than the covert operation itself. Watch this space for more information on this developing story. [JF]

US strikes in Pakistan part of secret deal

Ever since the United States began to engage in systematic military incursions and airstrikes against perceived terrorist targets in Pakistan, the Pakistani government has been vocally criticizing the Bush Administration for its “counterproductive” methods, which do not help “meet the objectives of the war on terror”, in the words of Mohammed Sadiq, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesman.

 

Now a new report by The Washington Post has disclosed that the US airstrikes and military incursions are in fact covered under a secret US-Pakistani high-level agreement, according to which “the US government refuses to publicly acknowledge the attacks while Pakistan’s government continues to complain noisily about the politically sensitive strikes”. Under the deal, the US government is said to have temporarily halted ground incursions, but regular airstrikes against targets in Pakistani territory have intensified.

 

Although this report will be denied by the Pakistani leadership, it rings accurate and is substantiated by the long and telling history of US-Pakistani security relations. It essentially signifies the continuation of the fundamentals of these relations, which appears to have remained untouched despite the recent change of guard in Islamabad.

 

The obvious ironic element in this development is highlighted by the recent comments of Pakistan’s President, Asif Ali Zardary, who candidly —and accurately— stated that the US strikes on Pakistani soil are “not good for our position of winning the hearts and minds of people”. Time magazine reports that “[o]pinion polls routinely show that an overwhelming majority of ordinary Pakistanis oppose US actions inside their country”. Yet “[t]he government has to respond to public sentiment, leading to harsh, uncompromising language from political and military leaders”.

 

This new development must not terminate the debate about the legality of the US military actions inside Pakistan. Even if the Pakistani government has authorized these actions, they still constitute extrajudicial assassinations. The latter are not justified by their reported sanctioning by the country’s elected regime. Nevertheless, this latest repot strengthens the increasing consensus of observers that, despite the recent change of guard in Islamabad, it is still business as usual in Pakistan’s relations with Washington. [JF] 

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Obama’s intelligence policy

While Barack Obama’s progressive supporters are busy celebrating, government insiders are cautioning against any premature ideas that the new President-elect is likely to implement any meaningful change in policy. Intelligence is no exception. A recent report in the Wall Street Journal states that “Obama is unlikely to radically overhaul controversial Bush administration intelligence policies”. 

Moreover, Obama’s intelligence transition team is said to be composed largely of what observers call “pragmatists”, i.e. mostly officials “who have supported Republicans, and centrist former officials in the Clinton administration”. These “centrist pragmatists” include John Brennan, former head of the National Counterterrorism Center and supporter of so-called “enhanced interrogation techniques”. Another member of the team is no other than Jami Miscik, “the fastest-rising woman in the history of the CIA”, who later left the Agency to join Lehman Brothers. Prior to leaving the CIA, Miscik became known for defending the CIA’s politicized (and suspiciously inaccurate) report titled “Iraq and al-Qaida: Assessing a Murky Relationship”, which helped the Bush Administration put forward the fictitious connection between Saddam Hussein and the al-Qaeda.

 

Notably, Brennan once publicly defended the practice of extraordinary rendition (i.e. the transfer of prisoners held by the CIA to countries that routinely practice torture during interrogation) as an “absolutely vital tool” with which he had “been intimately familiar […] over the past decade”. He is now said to be “a potential candidate for a top intelligence post” under Barack Obama.

 

Administration appointments aside, it is interesting to see what passes for “centrist pragmatism” in today’s US intelligence environment. If career officials who support extraordinary rendition and the extralegal use of torture are described as moderate “centrist pragmatists”, then what are hardliners like? [IA]

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