Analysis: Will COVID-19 cause food shortages in the United States?
April 8, 2020 2 Comments
The food supply chain in the United States has so far been able to endure the pressures caused by SARS-CoV-2. Grocery stores across the nation remain generally well-stocked, even if in some cases (like in Nevada and Arizona), the National Guard has been brought in to help with restocking. Shortages in certain types of foods, such as canned soup or pasta, are the result of unprecedented demand, rather than a breakdown in the food supply chain. Overall, therefore, there are no signs of systematic food shortages across the nation. However, disruptions —some of them severe— are likely to be experienced in the coming weeks.
COVID-19 IMPACT ON FARMS
Disruptions are likely to be felt first in the area of fresh produce, for two reasons. First, because large agricultural facilities are beginning to experience major shortages in personnel, as seasonal farmworkers —most of them from Central and South America— are unable to travel north due to the cessation of international travel in the Americas. Second, because —just like medical personnel across the country— agricultural workers are facing severe shortages in personal protective equipment (PPE), which is essential for keeping them healthy in a pandemic. Until now, major 
COVID-19 outbreaks have been occurring in densely populated urban centers. But as the disease continues to spread, it is only a matter of time before the virus reaches rural farming areas and enters farms, which are the beginning of the food supply chain. Many automated agricultural facilities, such as grain and soybean operations in the American Midwest, do not require large numbers of human laborers, and will thus suffer little disruption from the spread of the pandemic. However, this is not the case with fruits and vegetables, such as tomatoes or grapes, which require human pickers to extract them. The progression of the disease in rural regions of Florida and California, which produce over 20% of total US agricultural value, will be a critical factor. As an illustration, is worth pointing out that two farms in California supply over 85% of all carrots in the US market. If COVID-19 affects the production and distribution capacity of global producers of fresh fruits and vegetables, like the Florida-based Fresh Del Monte Produce, the ramifications are likely to be felt across the world for more than a year.
AGRICULTURAL DISRUPTIONS IN WESTERN EUROPE
Western Europe, which is ahead of the US in the spread of the disease, is already experiencing unprecedented disruptions in agricultural production. The closing of international borders has prevented millions of seasonal farmworkers from Eastern Europe, whom agricultural facilities in Western Europe rely on to pick fruits and vegetables each year, from traveling west. Italy and Britain hav
e begun issuing calls for unemployed workers to form “land armies” and volunteer to pick produce in farms. The French government has called “for hairdressers, waiters, florists and others temporarily unable to work” due to the pandemic “to head to the nation’s fields and start picking”. And in Germany, the authorities have launched a website that solicits volunteers to work in farms across the nation. However, as only 16,000 have volunteered so far, the German government is now working on a plan to allow undocumented immigrants to make up the remaining 284,000 farmworkers that are needed to salvage this year’s crop.
DISRUPTION IN THE GLOBAL FOOD EXPORT SYSTEM
It is unrealistic to expect that these glitches will not eventually make their way to the US. Moreover, just like Western Europe, the US relies heavily on imported foods. The global nature of the pandemic is also beginning to cause major disruptions in food exports, as air and ship cargo dwindles dramatically. Already, the shortage of refrigerated containers used to transport meat and other food supplies from China to North America has prompted a drop in imports of over 25%. Meanwhile, India, which is the world’s largest exporter of rice, has completely halted exports due to logistical problems and labor shortages caused by the pandemic. The world’s second and third largest exporters of rice, Thailand and Vietnam, are likely to soon follow suit. Kazakhstan, which is among the world’s largest exporters of wheat flour, has now banned all exports of that product. Brazil, the largest exporter of coffee, sugar and soybeans in the world, has warned that it is facing an unprecedented shortage of farmworkers, truck drivers, and even spare parts for farm equipment. And Russia, which is the world’s largest exporter of wheat, has said that it will soon be forced to severely restrict exports for the same reasons as Brazil. These developments prompted the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization to warn last week that food shortages, coupled with growing trade barriers between nations, “will create extreme volatility” in global food supply. Read more of this post
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British spy agencies foresee a more assertive China after COVID-19 pandemic
April 13, 2020 by Joseph Fitsanakis 6 Comments
According to The Guardian newspaper, analysts from Britain’s external and domestic spy agencies, the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) and the Security Service (MI5), expect that the Chinese government will aggressively promote a narrative that favorably compares its response to COVID-19 to that of Western nations. The goal of this narrative, according to British intelligence officials, will be to demonstrate the alleged superiority of China’s centralized one-party state over the pluralistic decision-making system that is prevalent in Western nations.
In response to this narrative by Beijing, the British government should adopt a more “realistic view” of its relationship with China and re-examine its dependency on the Chinese industry, especially in strategic areas of the economy, such as hi-tech research and production, as well as digital telecommunications and artificial intelligence. The Guardian said that the consensus in the British intelligence community continues to be that London acted wisely by giving the Chinese telecommunications hardware firm Huawei a 35 percent share in the construction of Britain’s 5G telecommunications network earlier this year, as the move does not compromise British strategic interests. Additionally, London should be careful not to criticize Beijing at the moment, given that much of the medical supplies that the country needs to defend itself the coronavirus are produced in China.
However, after the COVID-19 crisis, Britain is likely to re-examine its relationship —economic and political— with China, with the help of its intelligence agencies, said The Guardian. The paper reported that a group of conservative members of parliament have already formed a semi-official ‘China-skeptics block’. These parliamentarians reportedly wrote a letter to British Prime Minister Boris Johnson last week, urging him to “rethink [Britain’s] relationship with China”, taking “a strategic view of Britain’s long-term economic, technical and security needs”.
► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 13 April 2020 | Permalink
Filed under Expert news and commentary on intelligence, espionage, spies and spying Tagged with Britain, China, Coronavirus, COVID-19, Huawei Technologies, MI5, MI6, News