Classified US intelligence report suggests Iran regime unlikely to fall or change
March 9, 2026 11 Comments
A CLASSIFIED REPORT ISSUED two weeks ago by the United States National Intelligence Council (NIC) found that even a full-scale interstate war against Iran would be unlikely to dislodge or drastically alter the current regime. A summary of the report was revealed by The Washington Post, which cited three anonymous sources the paper said were intimately familiar with the report’s contents.
Composed of senior and highly respected intelligence analysts from across the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC), the NIC is tasked with producing classified strategic assessments on critical issues of concern to American decision-makers. Technically NIC reports represent the collective voice of all 18 intelligence agencies that make up the U.S. IC, and come as close as possible to the IC’s consensus view on pressing national security concerns.
According to The Washington Post, the NIC report outlines several scenarios for leadership succession in Iran, resulting from either a surgical “decapitation” campaign against specific elements of regime, or from a large-scale military assault against the entirety of the Iranian security state. It concludes that in both cases the Iranian regime is too entrenched and powerful to fall. Moreover, even in the event of “decapitation”, the regime has substantial human resources to keep replenishing its fallen military and civilian leaders, including the Supreme Leader.
Lastly, the NIC report concludes that the Iranian opposition within Iran and around the world is too disjointed, fragmented and disorganized to pose a credible alternative to the Iranian security state. While discussing a number of different potential scenarios for the takeover of power by the Iranian opposition, the NIC report concludes that such an eventuality remains “unlikely”, The Post reports.
The Post’s report appears to confirm earlier accounts by The New York Times and the Reuters news agency, which suggested that the consensus view among the U.S. IC is that, if killed, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei would almost certainly be replaced by another hardliner, who would be ideologically opposed to both Israel and the West.
Notably, The Washington Post notes that the NIC report does not consider the possibility that the U.S. and Israel might decide to engage in a protracted ground war against Iran. Additionally, the report does not entertain the possibility that ethnic separatist forces within Iran—such as the Kurds, the Azeris or the Balochis—might revolt against Tehran, thus sparking a nationwide armed conflict.
► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 09 March 2026 | Permalink
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Investigation uncovers previously unknown Russian covert action unit
March 16, 2026 by Joseph Fitsanakis 6 Comments
By mid-2023, Center 795 was “fully staffed”, with its ≈500 officers coming mostly from the Main Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces’ General staff (known as GU or GRU). Other Center 795 officers came from ALPHA and VYMPEL—covert action units belonging to the Special Purpose Center of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). A smaller number of officers came from the Russian Armed Forces, the Federal Protective Service, and from the ALPHA Group of the Belarussian security service, known as KGB.
The structure of Center 795 features three directorates: Intelligence, Combat Support, and Assault Operations. The Directorate of Intelligence consists of nine distinct departments tasked with—among other things—collecting and analyzing intelligence from social media platforms, conducting reconnaissance using satellite networks and drones, carrying out signals intelligence, as well as executing human intelligence and covert operations, including assassinations and abductions.
The Directorate for Combat Support is staffed with explosive, air defense, armored warfare, and artillery operatives. It also maintains combat units that conduct technical maintenance, logistics, fortification, and other specialized tasks. The Assault Operations Directorate consists of four departments, which appear to conduct strictly compartmentalized functions that include airborne tasks.
Notably, unlike other special activities units in Russia’s intelligence arsenal, Center 795 does not appear to reside within the GRU. Instead, it appears to operate independently of military intelligence oversight and to report directly to General Valery Gerasimov (pictured), Chief of the Russian Armed Forces’ General Staff of and First Deputy Minister of Defense, or to one of his subordinate deputy defense ministers.
According to the investigative reports, the existence of Center 795 was revealed when one of its officers, Denis Alimov, used Google to translate a message sent to him by a Serbian operative living in the United States. This allowed the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation to use a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISA) warrant and access the Google Translate transcripts. Alimov was eventually arrested in Bogotá, Colombia, on February 24, 2026, after arriving there on a Turkish Airlines flight from Istanbul, Turkey. He is currently awaiting extradition to New York.
► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 16 March 2026 | Permalink
Filed under Expert news and commentary on intelligence, espionage, spies and spying Tagged with Center 795, covert action, Denis Alimov, GRU, News, Russia, Unit 75127, Valery Gerasimov, Vympel