Report by whistleblower alleges up to 10,000 Russian casualties in Ukraine (updated)
March 8, 2022 2 Comments
A REPORT BY AN anonymous Russian intelligence analyst alleges that the Russian forces in Ukraine could have suffered as many as 10,000 casualties, and claims that the Kremlin has lost contact with a number of divisions. The claims are included in a 2,000-word document published online by Vladimir Osechkin, a Russian anti-corruption activist and vocal critic of the Kremlin, who has been living in France since 2015. In the past, Osechkin has collaborated with the investigative website Bellingcat.
According to British newspaper The Times, which first reported on the claims made by Osechkin, the document originates from an anonymous intelligence analyst in Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB). The FSB has inherited the domestic functions of the Soviet-era KGB and today operates as Russia’s internal security and counterintelligence agency. The anonymous analyst claims that the Kremlin kept the FSB in the dark about its intentions to order a military invasion of Ukraine.
The report adds that Russian President Vladimir Putin had based its estimations about whether the country could withstand Western economic sanctions on a number of optimistic forecasts produced by the FSB in the run-up to the war in Ukraine. However, these forecasts were nothing more than “hypothetical box-ticking exercises” in which intelligence analysts were expected to make Russia “the victor” in order to avoid the wrath of their superiors. No-one in the FSB thought these forecasts were going to be used by the Kremlin to make actual decisions about a war in Ukraine, it is claimed.
The Kremlin now realizes the extent of its miscalculation, says the anonymous analyst. However, it is too late to avert this “total failure”, which is comparable militarily only to the “collapse of Nazi Germany” in 1944 and 1945. The Russian forces in Ukraine could have already suffered as many as 10,000 casualties, even though the Russian government has only acknowledged close to 500 deaths of servicemen, the document claims. The true number is unknown even to President Putin himself, given that the Ministry of Defense has “lost contact with major divisions” in Ukraine. The report concludes with the assessment that “Pandora’s Box has been opened” and that Moscow “has no way out” of this debacle. “There are no options for a possible victory, only defeat”, it warns.
The Times said it showed the report to Christo Grozev, a Bulgarian investigative journalist, who supervises Bellingcat’s reporting on Russian affairs. Grozev told the paper that Ukrainian intelligence has previously produced fake FSB documents in order to frame the public narrative about the war. He argued, however, that “this letter appeared different” and that former FSB agents who had seen it appeared convinced of its authenticity. He added that Osechkin’s disclosures from Russian sources tend to be reliable.
Update: Meanwhile in Washington, Lieutenant General Scott D. Berrier, Director of the United States Defense Intelligence Agency, told a Congressional hearing on Tuesday that between 2,000 and 4,000 Russian troops have so far been killed in Ukraine. He added there was “low confidence” for this estimate, and that it was derived from clandestine and and open-source intelligence collection.
► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 08 March 2022 | Permalink
At least 16,000 foreign volunteers had come forward as of Thursday, answering a call by the Ukrainian government to join the armed fight against the invading Russian army, according to officials in Kiev. The Washington Post 
A PLOT BY A notorious Chechen paramilitary group to assassinate the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, was foiled by Ukrainian forces, according to a Ukrainian government official. The claim was made on Tuesday by Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications, a government-linked enterprise that works closely with the country’s Ministry of Defense and Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
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SENIOR UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS, including the president, vice president and foreign minister, have begun issuing open calls for foreign volunteers to go to Ukraine and form an international armed brigade. A number of Ukrainian ambassadors around the world are reporting that groups of foreign volunteers are already en route to Ukraine. Others are said to be answering calls to form a pro-Ukrainian ‘cyber army’.
THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE, Volodymyr Zelensky, warned on Thursday that teams or Russian assassins have already entered the nation’s capital, Kiev, with orders to kill him and his family. Zelensky made this 
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A WEALTHY BUSINESSMAN AND close ally of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who is being tried in the United States on money-laundering charges, was a “law enforcement source” for the Drug Enforcement Administration, according to documents unsealed this week in a Florida court. The businessman, Alex Nain Saab Moran, 51, comes from a Colombian family of Lebanese descent. For the past decade, he has been one of a number of international investors who have done extensive business with the government of Venezuela.
THE DECISION BY UNITED States officials to release what appears to be raw intelligence about Russia’s intentions on Ukraine is being described by observers as “highly unusual” and even “unprecedented”. Two weeks ago, American officials 
ISRAEL’S EXTERNAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY, the Mossad, made unofficial use of the Pegasus spyware, whose developer has been sanctioned by the United States government, according to a report from Israel. NSO Group Technologies was one of two Israeli firms that were placed on a US Department of Commerce sanctions list last November. 
AUSTRALIAN CITIZENS WITH ACCESS to sensitive information are being targeted for recruitment by foreign spies, who are increasingly using social media platforms, including dating applications, according to a new government report. The report, known as the Annual Threat Assessment, was issued on Wednesday by the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), which operates as the nation’s counter-terrorism and counterintelligence agency.
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Private military contractors stream into Ukraine as experts see ‘market frenzy’
March 9, 2022 Leave a comment
Ever since the collapse of Soviet communism in the early 1990s, Eastern Europe has been fertile ground for PMC firms, which are usually employed to provide protection to corporations and wealthy families. Now the demand for PMCs in the region is rising fast and is expected to be constant for the foreseeable future, according to the BBC. Currently PMC jobs in Ukraine, an active warzone, comes with a host of physical-security challenges. Experts tell the BBC that most of the missions in which PMCs expert to participate involve logistical support and so-called “extraction” operations. These refer to organized efforts to help remove people from Ukraine. They can range from simple to very complex operations, sometimes involving entire families of people who have the means to pay for their security. In such cases, operations may be priced in the millions, with handsome profits for those involved. In many cases, PMCs can charge in excess of $10,000 per person for extraction operations.
Industry insiders tell the BBC that a number of non-governmental organizations operating inside or around Ukraine, are hiring now PMCs for protection. In such cases, PMC personnel are “supposed to protect people, places or assets, rather than engage in direct combat”. However, there are instances of intelligence agencies that are hiring PMCs in order to extract some of their personnel who have gotten stuck in Ukraine amidst the conflict. These operations are among the most complex, because they involve contractual work on behalf of foreign governments.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government said on Tuesday it would make provisions to offer Ukrainian citizenship to international volunteers who join the ranks of its military. Ukraine’s Deputy Interior Minister, Yevhen Yenin, said in an interview that a special Ukrainian “military passport” will be given to international volunteers. The passport will replace the need for a visa, and can potentially be replaced with a Ukrainian passport for those who wish to acquire citizenship. On the same day, a number of African countries, among them Senegal, Nigeria and Algeria, cautioned their citizens against traveling to Ukraine to fight in the war in exchange for money or citizenship.
► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 09 March 2022 | Permalink
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