Analysis: Did Ukraine try to assassinate Vladimir Putin?
May 4, 2023 2 Comments
OFFICIALS IN UKRAINE HAVE vehemently denied allegations by the Kremlin that the Ukrainian government tried to assassinate Russian President Vladimir Putin using two unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). A statement by the Russian government said that the Kremlin, which serves as the official residence of the Russian president in Moscow, came under attack by two unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the early hours of Wednesday. According to the statement, the UAVs were shot down 16 minutes apart. The first UAV allegedly exploded mid-air at 2:27 a.m. local time over the old Senate building, which is located on the eastern side of the Kremlin. At 2:43 a.m. a second UAV exploded over the Kremlin, sending debris flying across the courtyard of the heavily fortified complex.
There were no injuries or material damages, according to the Russian Federal Protective Service, which is responsible for the protection of high-ranking state officials and government facilities, including the Kremlin complex. Within hours, Russia openly placed blame on the government of Ukraine for the alleged attack and claimed that it had been intended to kill President Putin. A subsequent statement praised the Russian armed forces for thwarting the alleged attack on Putin’s life with “timely actions”. Meanwhile, government officials in the United States said that the White House “had no foreknowledge of an impending drone attack on the Kremlin” and urged that Moscow’s allegations be treated with skepticism.
UKRAINE IS CAPABLE OF STRIKING INSIDE RUSSIA
The Ukrainian military and paramilitary forces are both interested in, and capable of, carrying out strikes inside Russia. In 2023 alone, there have been dozens of apparent acts of sabotage in European Russia, which have damaged bridges, disrupted railway transportation systems, and rendered weapons depots unusable. This week alone, a fuel depot in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai was extensively damaged by a fire, which local authorities claimed was caused by a kamikaze UAV attack. About 1,500 miles north in Bryansk Oblast, near
Russia’s border with Belarus, two trains were derailed by blasts that, according to news reports “appeared to be separate but identical incidents”. Ukraine denies involvement in these incidents, but military observers remain suspicious.
Meanwhile, investigative work by news outlets such as The New York Times suggests that Ukrainian paramilitary units may have been behind acts of sabotage in Western Europe, and even assassinations of pro-Putin figures inside Russia. Some of these attacks —if that is indeed what they were— may have been carried out by teams of cover human operatives. Others may have been carried out by mechanical means, including UAVs. Certainly, the Ukrainian military has never been shy about its effort to develop a strong long-range strike capability using UAVs. There is also some evidence that it may have carried out at least one UAV-enabled attack near Moscow in recent months. It therefore stands to reason that Ukraine is both willing and able to launch strikes inside Russia. Read more of this post
AUTHORITIES IN POLAND HAVE seized an abandoned school building in the Polish capital Warsaw, allegedly because it was being used as a base for espionage activities by the Russian government. Following the seizure of the building complex, Russian officials issued stern but vague warnings, saying that action will be taken in response to what they termed as an “act of provocation” by the Polish government.
AN AUSTRALIAN HIGH COURT has released the sentencing remarks in an unprecedented closed-door trial of an intelligence officer, identified only as “Witness J”, who was convicted in 2019 of a crime that cannot be revealed. The man, who is also known as “Prisoner 123458,” was given a jail sentence in November of 2019. His sentencing came following a closed-door hearing, which was described by a judge as “generally undesirable” and “unusual”. The very existence of the court case
THE UNITED STATES HAS arrested two residents of New York City for allegedly conspiring to create and operate a clandestine police station run by the Chinese government in the borough of Manhattan. The arrests come a month after authorities in Canada launched an
AN AUSTRALIAN BUSINESSMAN, WHO has worked in China for over two decades, is facing up to 15 years in prison for allegedly selling secrets to two foreign intelligence officers. The businessman, Alexander Csergo, 55, grew up in Sydney, but moved to China in 2002 and currently works for a digital solutions firm in Shanghai. According to
A NEW REPORT PUBLISHED by a London-based security think-tank concludes that Russia has employed unconventional operations effectively to subdue the population in occupied areas of Ukraine. These successes contrast sharply with the inferior performance of Russia’s conventional military forces, as revealed last week in a series of leaked documents belonging to the United States Department of Defense.
A POWERFUL EXPLOSION, LIKELY caused by a bomb hidden inside a decorative figurine, has killed one of the most prominent pro-Kremlin bloggers as he was giving a public talk in downtown St. Petersburgh, Russia. The bomb killed Maxim Fomin, 40, who was known in online blogger circles under the pseudonym Vladlen Tatarsky. Born in eastern Ukraine, Fomin supported the pro-Russian secessionist movement in the Donbas. By 2021, when he obtained Russian citizenship, he had already made a name for himself as a pro-Kremlin military blogger on the Telegram social media platform.
A RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE OPERATIVE, who lived in Maryland using forged Brazilian identity documents, has been charged with espionage and other crimes by the United States Department of Justice. Victor Muller Ferreira, a Brazilian national, was stopped from entering the Netherlands in June of last year, where he had intended to join the International Criminal Court (ICC) as an intern.
GREEK INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS ANNOUNCED late last week that they had uncovered the identity of a female Russian spy who lived in central Athens using a set of forged identity documents. According to the Greek National Intelligence Service (NIS/EYP), the case is under investigation by several Western intelligence agencies. Additionally, there seems to be a connection with Brazil where the Russian spy’s husband lived until recently, using forged identity papers.
AUTHORITIES IN CANADA ARE reportedly probing claims that the Chinese government is operating at least two “clandestine police stations” in Montreal, which allegedly monitor the activities of Chinese citizens and Canadians of Chinese origin. The announcement comes less than four months after a similar
THE SPIRALING SOCIAL UNREST in Israel and the Palestinian Territories may harm longstanding intelligence-sharing agreements between Israel and its Western allies, including the United States, according to reports. Historically, intelligence-sharing partnerships between Israel and its closest ally, the United States, have tended to remain largely unaffected by regional upheavals. This time, however, some Israeli officials are concerned that the Israeli-American intelligence relationship is “under a question mark and under great tension”.
THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION has called on the United States and China to share what they know about the source of the COVID-19 pandemic. The call, made by WHO’s Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and others, came days after United States Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Christopher Wray said in a television interview that COVID-19 “most likely” originated from a Chinese government laboratory.
A KEY COMMITTEE IN the Parliament of Canada passed a motion late last week that calls on the government to investigate allegations of foreign interference in the country’s general elections. Last Thursday’s vote by the Standing Committee on Procedure and House Affairs came soon after its members attended closed-door testimony by senior intelligence officials, which touched on various topics relating to the national security of Canada.






In rare public comments, Taiwan spy chief points to 2027 as key in China’s plans
May 5, 2023 by Joseph Fitsanakis 1 Comment
In addition to his speech at the Chung Hsing University, Director-General Tsai, a former deputy foreign minister and diplomat, gave a rare interview to the United States-based Bloomberg news agency. He refused to weigh in on the ongoing discussion about a timeframe for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But he singled out the year 2027 as a significant one for Chinese Premier Xi Jinping’s plans to modernize the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
The Chinese leader first introduced his “PLA Modernization 2035” plan in 2017, describing it as a whole-of-government effort to significantly improve the PLA’s combat capabilities as a step toward achieving China’s long-term goal of becoming a major global military power. Tsai pointed out that the year 2027 will be the 10-year mark into President Xi’s 18-year program of military reforms. Additionally, Xi will most likely be campaigning for a fourth presidential term that year, Tsai said.
In his interview with Bloomberg, Tsai said that President Xi “doesn’t allow any kind of different voice in the Chinese political system”. In essence, therefore, the Chinese leader has been surrounding himself with “a coterie of like-minded officials”. This resulting ‘groupthink’ means that “the risk of making a wrong decision” on pressing issues like Taiwan “will become much higher” in the coming years, he warned. To counter that threat, and to monitor China’s military intentions, Tsai said Taiwan is systematically deepening its real-time cooperation with its “international friends”, especially with the so-called “Five Eyes” alliance, an intelligence-sharing coalition comprising of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
In a separate development, the United States Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said on Thursday that the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (TSMC) would be a major cause for concern in a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The United States and other countries rely overwhelmingly on the TSMC’s production output for the use of semiconductors in civilian and military hardware. Should a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan prevent the TSMC from producing those semiconductors, the resulting impact on the global economy would be “enormous”, possibly in the neighborhood of “between $600 billion to $1 trillion on an annual basis for the first few years”, Haines said.
► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 05 May 2023 | Permalink
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