Russia orders 175,000 diplomatic passports, prompting speculation about their use

April 28, 2022 by 2 Comments

Russian foreign affairs ministryTHE RUSSIAN FEDERATION HAS reportedly ordered 175,000 new diplomatic passports to be printed, prompting speculation about their possible use at a time when Western sanctions are affecting Russia’s governing elite. Diplomatic passports are travel documents that are issued to accredited diplomats and government officials, such as foreign ministry envoys and others. Pursuant to the Vienna Convention of Diplomatic Relations, holders of diplomatic passports enjoy diplomatic immunity and are typically subjected to very limited inspections by security personnel when crossing international borders.

On Wednesday, SOTA Vision, a Russian alternative news website and social media network, claimed in a report that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation had ordered nearly 175,000 diplomatic passports to be printed, at the cost of over 300 million rubles ($4 million). The report, which was translated into English by the British newspaper The Daily Mail, questioned the need for so many diplomatic passports to be printed. It noted that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs employs no more than 15,000 people, of whom only about a third spend any time abroad, and thus require diplomatic passports.

So what is the reason for the use of so many diplomatic passports? According to SOTA Vision, these may be used by members of the Russian governing and economic elite, as well as their families, to evade Western sanctions on international travel and to avoid arrest when traveling abroad. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February of this year, Russia has been subjected to the harshest sanctions by Western countries since the end of the Cold War. Additionally, employees of Russian intelligence agencies may use several thousands of these diplomatic passports for their employees to operate abroad under what is known as “official cover”. Such agencies include the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), the Federal Security Service (FSB) and the Federal Protective Service (FSO), SOTA Vision noted.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 28 April 2022 | Permalink

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Australian spies helped expose secret pact between China and Solomon Islands

April 25, 2022 by 2 Comments

Honiara Solomon IslandsAUSTRALIAN INTELLIGENCE HAD A role in the mysterious disclosure of a secret memorandum about a controversial defense pact between China and the Solomon Islands, which is causing consternation in the West. Western leaders claim that the pact will turn the tiny Melanesian nation into a logistical hub for Chinese warships in a strategic region of the Pacific Ocean. The pact also stipulates a training role for Chinese police and military personnel, who are called to “assist […] in maintaining social order” in the island nation.

The Solomon Islands is an archipelago consisting of nearly 1,000 islands of various sizes in an area northwest of Vanuatu and east of Papua New Guinea. It gained its independence from Britain in the mid-1970s. Australia has historically provided security for this island nation of 700,000 inhabitants, which has no standing military. However, China has become a dominant player in Solomon Islands politics in recent years. In 2019, the government of the island nation abruptly withdrew its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan and aligned itself with Beijing.

The move sparked concerns in Malaita, the Solomons’ largest island, which is home to a sizeable Chinese community. There were demonstrations against Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare in the capital of the Solomon Islands, Honiara (pictured). Eventually, the demonstrators attempted to storm the Parliament and depose Sogavare’s administration by force. There were also attacks on Chinese-owned businesses in the capital, as well as on a number of police stations, which were set on fire. Eventually, Australian, New Zealander, Papuan and Fijian troops restored order in downtown Honiara.

In late March, the text of a defense pact between the Solomon Islands and China appeared online. The pact centers on law enforcement and military cooperation, involving training programs and joint exercises between the two nations. Some Western nations, including New Zealand, Australia and the United States, are concerned about the possibility that China could use the agreement to build a military base in the Solomon Islands. The island nation is strategically located near Australia and New Zealand, as well as near the island of Guam, which hosts a large American military base.

On Sunday, several Australian newspapers, including The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age reported that intelligence agencies in Australia were aware of plans by the governments of China and the Solomon Islands to sign the pact. According to “[m]ultiple government and security sources”, Australian spies had known about the pact “for months”. In March, they decided to “encourage a leak from within the Solomons” in an effort to sabotage the planned deal. According to reports, the hope was that the revelation would “build domestic and international pressure to get the Solomons to change course”.

It appears, however, that the leak of the secret document was not sufficient to dissuade the government of the Solomon Islands to back away from the agreement. Solomons Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare eventually signed the agreement with China, arguing that it would “improve the quality of lives” of his people and would “address soft and hard security threats facing the country”.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 25 April 2022 | Permalink

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Russian sleeper agent Mikhail Vasenkov reportedly dead at 79

April 22, 2022 by Leave a comment

Mikhail VasenkovRUSSIAN DEEP-COVER SPY Mikhail Vasenkov, who was caught by authorities in the United States in 2010, and was later part of a multi-person spy-swap between Washington and Moscow, has reportedly died. Vasenkov was an officer for the Soviet-era Committee for State Security (KGB), under which he constructed his non-official cover identity. In 1976, he reportedly arrived in Lima, Peru, from Madrid, Spain. He traveled on a Uruguayan passport bearing the name “Juan Jose Lazaro Fuentes”. The forged identity had been constructed by the Soviet KGB. The spy agency had used the birth certificate of a Uruguayan child, who had died of respiratory failure in 1947.

In 1979, Lazaro applied for, and was granted, Peruvian citizenship. A few years later, he met and married Peruvian journalist Vicky Pelaez, with whom he had a son. In 1985, the Lazaros moved to New York, along with their child and a son Pelaez had from a previous relationship. The couple were arrested by the FBI in 2010, and later admitted being in the service of Russian intelligence. They were among 10 Russian non-official-cover intelligence officers, who were swapped for a number of Western-handled intelligence agents held in Russian prisons.

In January of 2020, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), which is one of the KGB’s successor agencies, admitted for the first time that Vasenkov had been an intelligence officer. This unusual announcement directly contradicted Vasenkov’s own claims 10 years earlier: the spy had allegedly said that he was not Russian, did not understand or speak Russian, and wanted to move to Peru.

On April 6 of this this month, the SVR announced Vasenkov’s death, saying he was 79 years old. The announcement gave no cause of death. It added that Vasenkov had served in the so-called “special reserve staff” of the organization, which refers to spies who do not operate under diplomatic cover abroad. The obituary noted that Vasenkov had “created and headed an illegal residency”, which “obtained valuable political information, that was highly appreciated” by Russian decision-makers. It also said that Vasenkov had acquired the rank of colonel in 2005.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 22 April 2022 | Permalink

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British government phones were hacked with Pegasus spy software, group claims

April 19, 2022 by Leave a comment

NSO GroupTELEPHONE SYSTEMS BELONGING TO the British government were compromised by the Pegasus surveillance software, according to a Canadian research group. The allegation was made on Monday in an investigative report by The New Yorker, which focuses on NSO Group Technologies, an Israeli digital surveillance company based near Tel Aviv. The company is behind the development of Pegasus, which is arguably the most powerful telecommunications surveillance software available in the private sector.

As intelNews and others have previously reported, Pegasus is able to install itself on targeted telephones without requiring their users to click a link or download an application. Upon installation, the software provides the spying party with near-complete control of a targeted telephone. This includes the ability to browse through the device’s contents, such as photographs and videos, record conversations, as well as activate the telephone’s built-in microphone and camera at any time, without its user’s consent or knowledge.

According to The New Yorker, the information about the use of Pegasus software against British government telephone networks was disclosed by the Citizen Lab, a research unit of the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, which focuses on information technology, international security and human rights. The research unit said it notified the British government in 2020 and 2021 that a number of its telephone networks had been infected with the Pegasus software. The compromised networks were allegedly being used by officials in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, as well as in 10 Downing Street, which houses the office of the prime minister.

The article claims that the compromise originated from users in the United Arab Emirates, as well as users in India, Cyprus and Jordan. This does not necessarily mean that malicious actors from these countries penetrated the British government’s telephone systems. These could be spies of third countries operating abroad; alternatively, there could be a link to unsuspecting British diplomats, whose government-issue cell phones were compromised by Pegasus in foreign countries. The Citizen Lab said it could not be sure about what kind of data may have been compromised as a result of the penetration.

NSO Group Technologies was among two Israeli firms that the US Department of Commerce placed on a sanctions list in November of 2021. According to a statement issued by the US government, the two firms engaged “in activities that [were] contrary to the national security or foreign policy interests of the United States”.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 19 April 2022 | Permalink

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China steps up ‘people’s war’ against alleged Western espionage offensive

April 18, 2022 by Leave a comment

Supreme People’s ProcuratorateCHINESE STATE-OWNED MEDIA has stepped up warnings of an alleged Western espionage offensive, to mark China’s annual “national security education day”, a new initiative promoted by the Chinese Communist Party (CPC). The decision to designate April 15 “national security education day” was adopted by the CPC in 2015, during its 12th National People’s Congress. Since then, the Chinese government has promoted the day as an effort to create a “positive atmosphere of national security” across the nation.

In recent months, Beijing has called on the country’s citizens to combat an alleged espionage offensive against China. According to Chinese officials, the alleged offensive is being led by the United States. Chinese citizens are being called to “wage a people’s war” against foreign espionage, by reporting suspicious activities by foreigners and locals alike to the authorities.

The call to war against alleged espionage follows a resolution by the CPC in November of last year, which critiqued the country’s inability to maintain a high level of national security. The resolution called on various elements of the government and general population to address the nation’s “ability to respond to various major risks […] and the coordination mechanisms for maintaining national security”. Notably, the resolution described these efforts as “currently not strong”.

On Friday, the Supreme People’s Procuratorate (SPP), China’s highest government agency responsible for investigating and prosecuting criminal activity, issued a call to Chinese citizens to be watchful of using “popular social media platforms”. The SPP noted that such platforms had become “a hotbed for the infiltration of foreign hostile forces”. The warning made special mention of employment and dating websites, which prayed on “students, migrant workers and unemployed youth who know little about national security”.

► Author: Ian Allen | Date: 18 April 2022 | Permalink

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Dozens purged as Kremlin blames Russian spy services for botched Ukraine invasion

April 14, 2022 by 1 Comment

FSB - IAMore than 150 officers have been purged form the ranks of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), as President Vladimir Putin is placing blame on his intelligence agencies for the setbacks experienced during the invasion of Ukraine. This assessment was communicated to the London-based Times newspaper by British intelligence sources, who added that many of those purged have been dismissed from the service, while others remain under house arrest. A few —among them senior FSB officials— are in prison. The FSB is tasked with domestic security and counterintelligence operations, which were carried out by the KGB during the Cold War.

According to The Times, the purge has mostly targeted officers in the FSB’s Service for Operational Information and International Communications, which is informally known as the Fifth Service of the FSB. As intelNews has previously explained, the FSB’s Fifth Service was established in 1992 in order to fill the vacuum created by a host of no-spy agreements between Moscow and the governments of former Soviet Republics. These agreements prevent Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) from spying inside the territories of former Soviet states.

By 1995, the Fifth Service had become known as the “foreign spy wing” of the FSB. It grew in size drastically after 1999, and some claim it “graduated into [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s imperial gendarme”. Today, the Fifth Service is reportedly in charge of Kremlin’s “kill list” of Ukrainian senior officials and other dissidents who live in Ukraine. Until recently, the Fifth Service was led by Sergei Beseda and Anatoly Bolyukh (or Bolukh).

However, The Times claims that both officials have been dismissed from their posts in recent weeks. Initially, the Russian government claimed that Beseda had embezzled funds, and placed him under house arrest. He has since been transferred to a prison, according to the paper, and has now been formally charged with misinforming the Kremlin about the conditions on the ground in Ukraine. Bolyukh has been dismissed from his post but is reportedly not in prison. His current whereabouts remain unclear.

► Author: Ian Allen | Date: 14 April 2022 | Permalink

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American computer programmer jailed for giving technical know-how to North Korea

April 13, 2022 by Leave a comment

North Korea PyongyangAN AMERICAN COMPUTER PROGRAMMER has been jailed for 63 months for providing “highly technical information” to North Korea, which related to cryptocurrency systems, according to United States officials. The programmer, Virgil Griffith, 39, also known as “Romanpoet”, became widely known in the early 2000s, when he began describing himself as a “disruptive technologist”. He later consulted with the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other law enforcement agencies in the area of the dark web and cryptocurrencies.

In later years, however, Griffith developed what his lawyer described as a “curiosity bordering on obsession” with North Korea. The FBI arrested Griffith in November of 2019, accusing him of deliberately providing the North Korean government with “highly technical information” relating to blockchain and cryptocurrency systems. According to US government prosecutors, Griffith committed a crime when he delivered an invited presentation at an international conference on cryptocurrencies in Pyongyang, North Korea, in April of 2019.

Prior to attending the conference, Griffith had been barred from traveling to North Korea by the United States Department of State. He managed to get there anyway and, according to US prosecutors, “advised more than 100 people” on the use of cryptocurrencies to evade banking regulations and international sanctions. Griffith should have known that many of those he spoke to were employees of the North Korean government, US prosecutors said. They argued that Griffith’s actions amounted to an illegal transfer of highly technical knowledge. By attending the conference, Griffith essentially provided services to a foreign power that is hostile to the United States, prosecutors claimed.

Griffith has been given a 63-month prison sentence, which will be followed by a 3-year supervised release. He has also been fined $100,000. As intelNews has previously reported, a United Nations report warned earlier this year that the North Korean missile program has developed rapidly in recent times, partly due to an influx of stolen cryptocurrency, which has now become “an important revenue source” for Pyongyang.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 13 April 2022 | Permalink

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Leaked plan for China-Solomon Islands security alliance raises concerns in the Pacific

April 11, 2022 by 2 Comments

Manasseh Sogavare Solomon IslandsA LEAKED PLAN FOR a security alliance between China and the small Melanesian nation of the Solomon Islands has sparked concerns about a large-scale military buildup by regional powers in the South Pacific. The draft agreement, which was leaked online last week, appears to turn the Solomon Islands into a logistical hub for Chinese warships. It also stipulates a training role for Chinese police and military personnel, who are called to “assist […] in maintaining social order” in the island nation.

The Solomon Islands is an archipelago consisting of six major and nearly 1,000 smaller islands in an area northwest of Vanuatu and east of Papua New Guinea. It gained its independence from Britain in the mid-1970s. Australia has historically provided security for this island nation of 700,000 inhabitants, which has no standing military. However, China has become a dominant player in Solomon Islands politics in recent years. In 2019, the government of the island nation abruptly withdrew its diplomatic recognition of Taiwan and aligned itself with Beijing.

The move sparked concerns in Malaita, the Solomon Islands’ largest island, which is home to a sizeable Chinese community. There were demonstrations against Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare (pictured) in Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands. Eventually, the demonstrators attempted to storm the Parliament and depose Sogavare’s administration. There were also attacks on Chinese-owned businesses in Honiara, as well as on a number of police stations, which were set on fire. Eventually, Australian, New Zealander, Papuan and Fijian troops restored order in Honiara.

Tensions have risen again in recent weeks, however, after Sogavare’s government signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with China. The memorandum centers on law enforcement and military cooperation, involving training programs and joint exercises between the two nations. The Solomon Islands government described the MOU as “necessary” to allow it to quell “recurring internal violence” in Honiara and elsewhere. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs described the MOU as an agreement that “aims to maintain the safety of people’s lives and property”. Read more of this post

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FBI arrests two men who tried to influence Secret Service agents – motive unknown

April 8, 2022 by Leave a comment

Jill and Joe BidenTHE FEDERAL BUREAU OF Investigation arrested two men on Wednesday, who allegedly tried to influence four agents of the United States Secret Service with money and gifts, according to an affidavit. The men were identified on Thursday as Haider Ali, 36, and Arian Taherzadeh, 40. Both are United States citizens and residents of Washington, DC. On the same day, FBI personnel searched five apartments and a number of cars that belong to the two men.

According to the FBI, in February of 2020 the two men began posing as employees of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). At around the same time, they began telling people they knew that they were involved in undercover investigations. After the United States Capitol attack of January 6, 2021, they told neighbors they had been tasked with uncovering the identities of participants in the attack. The FBI alleges that the two men spent thousands of dollars on buying equipment that would help them pass for DHS employees, including a black sports utility vehicle equipped with emergency lights. They had also rented several apartments in Washington, at the cost of hundreds of thousands of dollars a year.

Eventually they became friendly with four Secret Service agents, one of whom served on the protection detail of Dr. Jill Biden, the wife of President Joe Biden. They gradually began giving their Secret Service agent friends gifts, including a flat screen television, a power generator, as well as “law enforcement paraphernalia”.

The FBI has not provided a motive for the activities of the two men, saying only that the investigation into their activities is “ongoing”. According to the New York Times, Ali told witnesses he was connected to the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate, which is the primary intelligence agency of Pakistan. It is also believed that Ali’s passport contains a number of entry visas issued by Pakistani and Iranian authorities, the paper said.

The two men appeared on Thursday at a court hearing in Washington, via videoconference. They are scheduled to attend a detention hearing later today. Meanwhile, the Secret Service agents who were befriended by the two suspects have been placed on administrative leave, according to a Secret Service spokesperson. The investigation into the case continues.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 08 April 2022 | Permalink

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Security guard at British embassy in Berlin charged with spying for Russia

April 7, 2022 by Leave a comment

British embassy in BerlinA BRITISH CITIZEN, WHO worked as a security guard at the British embassy in Berlin, has been charged with spying for the Russian intelligence services. Authorities in the United Kingdom announced on Wednesday that David Ballantyne Smith, 57, who lives in Potsdam, Germany, has been charged on nine different offenses under the 1911 Official Secrets Act.

The BBC reports that Smith was arrested by Germany’s Federal Police on August 10 of last year. Shortly after his arrest, German counterintelligence officers searched Smith’s home and office, according to a statement issued on Wednesday by Britain’s Crown Prosecution Service (CPS). Smith has now been charged with offenses relating “to the collection and communication of information useful to the Russian state”.

On Wednesday evening, Smith was flown to the United Kingdom. He is scheduled to appear before the Westminster Magistrates’ Court later today. According to the CPS, Smith engaged in espionage for Russia between October 2020 and his arrest in August of 2021. He is accused of having committed seven offenses during that time, which relate to the collection of information with the intent of passing it on to the Russian state. Smith has also been charged with attempting to communicate information to Russian government agents, as well as with providing information to an individual he believed worked for Russian intelligence.

According to British television channel SkyNews, Smith was the subject of a joint counterintelligence operation by Britain’s Security Service (MI5) and Germany’s Federal Police. No information is currently available about the type of information Smith is accused of having collected on behalf of Russia. It is also not known whether Smith’s alleged Russian handler(s) were identified during the counterintelligence operation that led to his arrest.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 07 April 2022 | Permalink

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Russian diplomats expelled from Ireland ‘met with members of paramilitary groups’

April 5, 2022 by 2 Comments

Russian embassy IrelandFOUR RUSSIAN DIPLOMATS, WHO Ireland claims are undercover intelligence officers, met with Irish paramilitaries as part of a wider plan to “stoke political unrest” in Britain and Ireland, according to a new report. In a press conference held in Dublin last week, Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Micheál Martin announced that his government would expel four employees of the Russian Embassy there.

Martin did not provide details about the Russian diplomats, nor did he give their names. He said, however, that his administration had been provided with detailed information about the activities of the Russians by members of the National Crime and Security Intelligence Service of the An Garda Síochána (police service of the Republic of Ireland) and the Defence Intelligence Section of the Irish Armed Forces.

On Monday, an article by the London-based Times newspaper alleged that a major reason why Dublin decided to expel the Russian diplomats was their “efforts to cultivate contacts with dissident republicans and loyalist paramilitaries” in the Republic of Ireland and in Northern Ireland, which is British soil. The Russian diplomats began meeting dissident republicans under the pretext of attending lectures and presentations on Irish history in Dublin and elsewhere, The Times said.

According to the paper, the activities of the Russian diplomats were part of a wider campaign by Russian intelligence to “undermine confidence” in European institutions, by exploiting nationalist tensions stirred by Britain’s recent exit from the European Union. The effort is being led by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, which is widely known by its Cold War-era initials, GRU. The spy agency is in charge of a campaign to amplify the voices of republican and loyalist paramilitary groups on social media and other platforms, in order to undermine regional security, The Times said.

The paper added that at least one of the four expelled Russian diplomats is believed to be an intelligence officer for the GRU. IntelNews has discussed previously a number of concerns among Irish officials regarding the size of the Russian embassy in Dublin. Many believe that Moscow intends to turn its embassy in the Irish capital into a major espionage hub in Europe. In 2018, the Irish government denied a request by Moscow to expand its embassy complex by 86,000 sq ft.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 05 April 2022 | Permalink

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Several EU member states expel dozens of Russian diplomats for suspected espionage

April 4, 2022 by 1 Comment

Russian Embassy PragueA WEEK AFTER POLAND announced the expulsion of 45 Russian diplomats, the foreign ministries of Belgium, the Czech Republic, Ireland and the Netherlands announced on March 29, 2022 that they would expel Russian diplomats. A day later, Slovakia followed up by announcing it will expel 35 Russian diplomats. On Monday, April 4, France, Germany and Lithuania followed suit with dozens of expulsions.

The German federal government announced it will expel 40 Russian diplomats who, according to minister of foreign affairs Annalena Baerbock, “worked every day against our freedom and against the cohesion of our society”, and are “a threat to those who seek our protection”. The persons involved have five days to leave Germany. Later that day, France announced it will expel “many” Russian diplomats “whose activities are contrary to our security interests”, adding that “this action is part of a European approach”. No further details are known at this time.
Furthermore, Lithuania ordered the Russian ambassador to Vilnius to leave the country, and announced their ambassador to Ukraine will return to Kyiv. In an official statement, foreign minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said Lithuania was “lowering the level of diplomatic representation with Russia, this way expressing its full solidarity with Ukraine and the Ukrainian people, who are suffering from Russia’s unprecedented aggression”. Meanwhile, Latvian minister of foreign affairs Edgars Rinkēvičs announced in a tweet that Latvia will “limit diplomatic relations” with the Russian Federation “taking into account the crimes committed by the Russian armed forces in Ukraine”, and that “specific decisions will be announced once internal procedures have been complete”.

The Czech Republic, which in 2021 called on the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to expel Russian diplomats in solidarity against Moscow, announced the expulsion of one diplomat from the Russian embassy in Prague, on a 72-hour notice. In a tweet, the Czech ministry of foreign affairs stated that “Together with our Allies, we are reducing the Russian intelligence presence in the EU”.

Belgium has order the expulsion of 21 diplomats from the Russian embassy in Brussels and consulate in Antwerp. Minister Sophie Wilmès said the measure was taken to protect national security and was unrelated to the war in Ukraine. “Diplomatic channels with Russia remain open, the Russian embassy can continue to operate and we continue to advocate dialogue”, Wilmès said.

The Netherlands will be expelling 17 diplomats from the Russian embassy in The Hague. According to minister Wopke Hoekstra, the diplomats were secretly active as intelligence officers. Hoekstra based this on information from the Dutch secret services AIVD and MIVD. The Russian embassy in The Hague has 75 registered diplomats, of which 58 will remain. Hoekstra says the decision was taken with “a number of like-minded countries”, based on grounds of national security. Like his Belgian colleague, Woekstra adds he wants diplomatic channels with Russia to remain open.

Ireland will be expelling four “senior officials” from the Russian embassy in Dublin, for engaging in activities “not […] in accordance with international standards of diplomatic behaviour”. They were suspected of being undercover military officers of the GRU and were already on the radar of Garda Síochána, the Irish national police and security service, for some time.

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France’s military intelligence chief fired ‘for failing to warn about Ukraine war’

April 1, 2022 by 2 Comments

Éric VidaudTHE DIRECTOR OF FRANCE’S military intelligence agency has been asked to resign, allegedly because of his agency’s failure to anticipate the Russian invasion of Ukraine. General Éric Vidaud is a career military officer, who rose through the ranks to command the 1st Marine Infantry Parachute Regiment, one of the three units in the French Army Special Forces Command. In 2018, he was placed at the helm of the Special Operations Command, which oversees the joint activities of special forces units from all of France’s military branches. In August of last year, Vidaud assumed command of the Directorate of Military Intelligence (DRM), which operates under France’s Armed Forces Ministry.

On Thursday it was announced that Vidaud will be leaving his post, after just seven months on the job. The official government line is that his departure is part of a wider effort to reorganize the structure of the DRM. But several French news media report that the general is paying the price for the DRM’s failure to anticipate the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Unlike some of its allies, France did not appear to believe that the Kremlin was intent on launching a large-scale conventional military invasion of Ukraine. Two weeks into the war, General Thierry Burkhard, France’s Chief of the Defense Staff (head of the Armed Forces), said in an interview that French military analysts been caught by surprise. They believed that the sheer financial cost of conquering Ukraine “would have been monstrous” for Russia, and that the Kremlin had “other options” to bring down the Ukrainian government.

The assumption that the Russian President Vladimir Putin was bluffing about launching a military invasion of Ukraine led to repeated public statements by his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, who kept assuring the world that a diplomatic solution would eventually be found. Some French media now report that President Macron is blaming the DRM, and General Vidaud personally, for his being led to believe that the Kremlin was bluffing. One report claims that Vidaud has been accused by France’s political leadership of “lacking a mastery of subjects” relating to Russia and Ukraine, and providing Macron with “inadequate briefings” on these subjects.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 01 April 2022 | Permalink

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Analysis: American Intelligence and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

March 31, 2022 by 3 Comments

Volodymyr ZelenskyAMERICAN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES ASSESSED Russia’s intentions in Ukraine with remarkable precision. Moreover, Washington’s picture of the Russian military’s material power has proven highly accurate. On the other hand, American intelligence agencies appear to have over-estimated Russia’s conceptual military power —that is, Moscow’s ability to utilize its material military strength efficiently. This, combined with a tendency to underrate the willingness of the Ukrainian population to resist the Russian invasion, appears to have led Washington to over-estimate Russia’s chances of a swift military victory in Ukraine.

American estimates of Russia’s military power potential before the invasion of Ukraine were largely accurate. United States intelligence agencies —primarily the Defense Intelligence Agency and the Central Intelligence Agency— had formed a relatively precise picture of the Russian military strength, in terms of its material power. This means that, long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Washington was well-versed on the strength of the Russian military in terms of its size, hardware and firepower. Moreover, American Q Quoteintelligence interpreted Russian intentions on Ukraine with remarkable accuracy. It should be noted that, with the help of its intelligence advisors, the White House was able to estimate the precise date and time of the invasion of Ukraine.

However, America’s understanding of Russian conceptual power —namely the ability of the Russian military to utilize its physical resources effectively— was far more limited. Washington over-estimated the logistical and organizational capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces. In other words, American intelligence had a largely accurate picture of the material capabilities of the Russian military. It had a far less accurate picture of the Russian military’s ability to use these capabilities effectively. It follows that the unimpressive performance of the Russian military in Ukraine has surprised American observers, and has prompted a re-evaluation of Russian military capability estimates in the American intelligence community. Read more of this post

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Ukrainian agency publishes personal data of 600 alleged Russian intelligence officers

March 29, 2022 by 1 Comment

Kyrylo BudanovUKRAINE’S MILITARY INTELLIGENCE AGENCY has published a list that contains the names, addresses and passport numbers of 600 Russians, who it alleges are employees of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). The FSB is Russia’s domestic security and counterintelligence agency, but its personnel also operate in former Soviet republics, including Ukraine. It has been claimed that the FSB is the main source of intelligence that the Kremlin has used to plan and execute the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

The list of alleged FSB personnel was published on Monday on the website of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, which is Ukraine’s primary military intelligence agency. The list is titled, “Russian FSB officers involved in criminal activities by the aggressor state in Europe”. Most entries include the names, birth dates and passport numbers of the alleged FSB officers. Their residential addresses are also listed. Some entries include subscriber identity module (SIM) card numbers, as well as vehicle registration numbers. Some observers noted on Monday that at least some of the names on the list appear to come from prior leaks of alleged FSB officers, which have been leaked online over the years. Other listings, however, appear to contain names that were not previously associated with the FSB.

In a separate but potentially related development, Kyrylo Budanov (pictured), the director of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, said on Monday that his agency had a number of assets inside the Kremlin. In an interview to an American newsmagazine, Budanov claimed that Ukrainian intelligence had “managed to infiltrate many sectors of Russia’s leading military, political and financial institutions”. He added that the Ukrainian military’s recent combat successes in eastern Ukraine had been achieved due to intelligence supplied by assets inside the Russian government.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 29 March 2022 | Permalink

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