Military and intelligence officials arrested in Bolivia over coup attempt

July 1, 2024 by 3 Comments

Luis Arce

Luis Arce

NEARLY 20 MILITARY AND intelligence officials have so far been arrested in Bolivia, less than a week after a former military commander led a failed coup against the government of President Luis Arce (pictured). Several military units stormed the Casa Grande, the presidential palace in La Paz, the Bolivian capital. An armored vehicle was used to ram the main gate of the palace, allowing soldiers to enter the building. However, soldiers were later seen withdrawing from the plaza in front of Case Grande, and police took back control.

Within hours, Bolivian forces loyal to President Arce had arrested the apparent leader of the coup, General Juan José Zúñiga. Arce had appointed Zúñiga commander general of the Bolivian armed forces in 2022. The commander of the Bolivian Navy, Juan Arnez Salvador, has also reportedly been arrested, as well as over a dozen other military and intelligence officers. According to reports, over 200 military and intelligence personnel participated in the failed coup, including high-ranking officers. A press statement issued on Saturday by the Bolivian government said that the investigation into the coup will continue until all participants in the coup are identified.

Meanwhile, President Arce denied claims made by Zúñiga that he had been secretly asked by Arce to create instability in the country, in order to prompt the Bolivian population to rally around the government. In a press conference held in La Paz on Thursday, the president denied he had any involvement in the planning of the coup or that he had prior knowledge of the coup plot. Earlier on the same day, Bolivia’s Minister of the Interior, Eduardo del Castillo, had said in a radio interview that his ministry had received intelligence about potential attempts to destabilize the government. However, during his press conference, President Arce denied the existence of intelligence reports warning about a coup: “We were never informed about [Zúñiga’s] reports […]. We were surprised”, he said.

Arce, a 60-year-old former minister of economics, rose to the presidency in 2020. The 2020 elections followed a period of widespread political turmoil in Bolivia, which led to the forced resignation of then-President Evo Morales. Arce’s rise to power facilitated the return of Morales to Bolivia after a period of self-exile. However, Morales and Arce, who were once close political allies, fell out after Morales’ return to Bolivia. They now lead rival factions of the once unified Movement to Socialism (MAS).

The United States, China, and Russia, which compete for influence and access to resources in Bolivia, have remained largely silent since the coup. Arce’s government has prompted discontent in Washington by signing agreements with Chinese and Russian firms to exploit reserves of lithium, which are ample in Bolivia. Lithium is essential for the production of batteries for laptops, cell phones and other electronics, as well as electric vehicles.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 01 July 2024 | Permalink

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Russia uses merchant navy fleet for intelligence operations in North Sea, study reveals

June 24, 2024 by 10 Comments

undersea telecommunications cable

HUNDREDS OF RUSSIAN MERCHANT ships have been utilized by the Kremlin for over a decade to carry out intelligence operations in the North Sea, a major new investigation has revealed. Belgian newspaper De Tijd and the investigative journalism website Follow the Money (FTM) carried out the joint investigation, using data provided by Global Fishing Watch, a Google-based international nonprofit organization that gathers information on commercial fishing activities worldwide.

Encompassing 220,000 square miles, the North Sea lies between France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Norway, Denmark, and Germany. It hosts many of the world’s major shipping lanes, an extensive network of energy pipelines, as well as key undersea communication cables. The development of large-scale offshore energy production has further-augmented the significance of the North Sea for the security of Europe in recent years. The strategic value of the North Sea has become even clearer since the onset of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2014.

According to the De Tijd/FTM study, the Russian government has been highly active in the North Sea through a variety of stealthy means –primarily by deploying civilian vessels to collect intelligence and possibly even carry out sabotage operations. The study focused on 1,012 Russian-flagged non-military vessels that have been active in the North Sea since 2014. These consist of oil tankers, scientific research vessels, fishing boats, cargo ships, and even privately owned yachts.

The study identified 60,000 loitering events involving these Russian vessels. In the shipping domain, the term ‘loitering event’ refers to vessels that deviate from their normal route, reduce speed for no obvious reason, drift aimlessly, or circle around a location that may initially appear arbitrary. Loitering and other such peculiar behavior by merchant ships makes no economic sense, as it requires more fuel and results in added compensation for crews. Notably, close to 1,000 loitering events by nearly 170 different Russian ships were found to have taken place within less than a mile from an underground cable or energy pipeline. Read more of this post

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U.S. Pentagon ran secret COVID-19 anti-vaccination campaign to undermine China

June 17, 2024 by 1 Comment

Coronavirus COVID-19THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT of Defense ran a secret psychological operation on multiple social media platforms, aimed at undermining Chinese-manufactured vaccines against COVID-19. The controversial campaign was met with objections by several U.S. government officials, but continued for over a year, spanning both the Trump and Biden administrations.

According to the Reuters news agency, which uncovered the alleged plot, the psychological operation initially targeted the Philippines in the spring of 2020. During that time, the Southeast Asian nation relied heavily on the CoronaVac, also known as the Sinovac COVID-19 vaccine, which was manufactured by the Chinese biopharmaceutical firm Sinovac Biotech. The CoronaVac vaccine was approved for human consumption by the World Health Organization.

An investigation by Reuters determined that the U.S. Pentagon attempted to undermine the efficacy of the Chinese-manufactured vaccine, in order to sabotage the relations between China and the Philippines. Over time, the Pentagon project morphed into an anti-vax campaign that questioned the quality of Chinese-produced coronavirus test kits and Chinese-supplied face masks. There was also an attempt to stigmatize Chinese-produced medical supplies relating to COVID-19. The campaign argued that the coronavirus had originated in China, which made Chinese-manufactured medical supplies suspect.

The psychological operation utilized hundreds of fake social media accounts on multiple platforms, which were unified under the hashtag #Chinaangvirus —Tagalog for “China is the virus.” By early 2021, the campaign had expanded to the Middle East and Central Asia. Some social media posts claimed that Muslims should not be using the Sinovac COVID-19 vaccine because it contained pork gelatin and should thus be considered forbidden under Islamic law. These tactics raised objections by some U.S. government officials, notably from the State Department, who expressed them in meetings with Pentagon personnel. The secret campaign was terminated in June of 2021.

The Reuters news agency spoke to Greg Treverton, former chairman of the U.S. National Intelligence Council, which ensures that the work of the nation’s intelligence agencies reflect the government’s policy priorities. Treverton told the news agency that getting “as much vaccine in people’s arms as possible” would have been in the national interest of the U.S., adding that the Pentagon’s secret operation “crosses a line”. Reuters said that a senior Pentagon official acknowledged a secret psychological operation was indeed launched, in order to “disparage China’s vaccine in the developing world.” However, the official “declined to provide details” of the operation.

► Author: Ian Allen | Date: 17 June 2024 | Permalink

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Denmark arrests Russian woman in connection with covert Kremlin legal fund

June 12, 2024 by 4 Comments

PET DenmarkA RUSSIAN WOMAN IS under arrest in Denmark, reportedly in connection with a surreptitious legal fund that is allegedly connected to intelligence operations conducted by the Kremlin. The Danish Security and Intelligence Service (PET) said on Tuesday that the Russian national had been detained south of the Danish capital Copenhagen on suspicion of “enabling a foreign intelligence service to operate in Denmark”.

Crucially, the PET press statement noted that the arrest relates to recent reports about a legal defense fund with covert links to the Kremlin, which was uncovered in the press. On June 3, the state-owned Danish Broadcasting Corporation (DR) published information from 40 leaked documents about an alleged sovereign wealth fund known as Fund for Support and Protection of the Rights of Compatriots Living Abroad (Pravfond).

According to the DR report, Pravfond was set up in secret by the Russian authorities in order to finance the Kremlin’s disinformation campaigns in nearly 50 countries around the world. Pravfond also operates as a legal defense fund for Russian intelligence operatives who have been captured abroad while carrying out intelligence operations. For example, it contributed funds for the legal defense of notorious Russian weapons merchant Viktor Bout and Vadim Krasikov, a Russian assassin who is currently being held in a German prison.

The PET said that the Russian woman would be released following questioning, adding that the investigation into the espionage case would continue. The agency did not name the woman. However, according to reports in the Danish media, she is “a central figure in the Russian community in Denmark”.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 12 June 2024 | Permalink

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France arrests Russian-Ukrainian dual national with fake passports following explosion

June 6, 2024 by 2 Comments

Roissy-en-FranceAN INVESTIGATION HAS BEEN launched in France after a Ukrainian-born Russian national reportedly detonated explosives in a hotel room near Paris, suffering severe burns in the process. Sources from France’s National Anti-Terrorism Prosecutor’s Office (PNAT) said the incident occurred on Monday in a hotel in Roissy-en-France, a small bedroom community located 15 miles northeast of downtown Paris.

At the scene of the explosion police found a severely burned man, who was later identified as a 26-year-old from the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Most of the Donbas region has been under Russian military occupation since 2014. The man is reportedly a Russian speaker and holds both Ukrainian and Russian nationalities. He is currently in hospital receiving treatment for severe burns, and is formally under arrest.

The PNAT and the General Directorate for Internal Security (DGSI), France’s counterterrorism and counterespionage agency, are investigating the suspect’s background and activities. According to media reports, the suspect’s hotel room contained “substances and materials intended for the manufacture of explosive devices”. A number of guns and forged passports were also found in the room.

As intelNews reported earlier this week, French police arrested a Bulgarian, a Ukrainian and a German national, who deposited five coffins, draped in French flags, at the base of the Eiffel Tower. The flags reportedly bore the inscription “Dead French Soldiers of Ukraine”. While the investigation is ongoing, French authorities are said to have classified the incident as a Russian psychological operation aimed at affecting French public opinion. It is not known whether the two cases are in any way connected.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 06 June 2024 | Permalink

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French police arrest foreign nationals in suspected Russian influence operation

June 4, 2024 by 4 Comments

Eiffel TowerFRENCH POLICE ARRESTED THREE foreign nationals on Monday, accusing them of having deposited five coffins draped in French flags at the foot of the Eiffel Tower. The flags bore the inscription “French Soldiers of Ukraine”, while the coffins were found to contain sacks of plaster, according to media reports. The reports quoted French intelligence officials as saying that the stunt was likely a Russian operation aimed at influencing French public opinion against a potential military involvement in Ukraine.

Close circuit television footage led French police to the driver of a van that carried the coffins to the Eiffel Tower at 9:00 a.m. local time on Saturday. The 34-year-old driver, identified as “Georgi F.”, is believed to be a Bulgarian national. He told police he had arrived in Paris from Bulgaria on Friday and had been paid €40 by two other men to help transport the coffins to the iconic Paris monument. The two men, who allegedly paid the Bulgarian national, were arrested shortly afterwards while they were preparing to board a bus to Germany. One of them is believed to be a German national, while the other is said to hold Ukrainian citizenship.

The two men allegedly told French police they had been paid €400 to transport the coffins. French authorities reportedly believe the stunt was “organized from abroad” and that “Russian agents” may be behind it. There are allegations that the individual who paid the men may have been the same person who organized a similar stunt in May. In the early hours of May 14, someone defaced the Wall of the Righteous at the Mémorial de la Shoah, which includes the Holocaust museum in Paris’ 4th arrondissement. The names of nearly 4,000 people who helped save Jews in France are inscribed on that wall.

Last November, French authorities accused Russia of being behind stenciled images of Stars of David that had mysteriously appeared in the streets of Paris in late October. At least two of those arrested in the ensuing days were Moldovan nationals. The Paris prosecutor said at the time that the culprits had been in contact with a Russian-speaking individual who had offered to pay them in exchange for graffitiing the stars. Some reports speculated that the graffiti may have been part of a campaign by a “foreign actor trying to undermine French social cohesion”.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 04 June 2024 | Permalink

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China accuses married couple of spying for Britain’s MI6

June 3, 2024 by 2 Comments

MSS China - IATHE SPY CONFLICT BETWEEN China and the United Kingdom escalated last week, as the Chinese government accused a married couple of carrying out espionage missions on behalf of British intelligence. In a rare statement to the press, China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) said it was investigating the activities of a husband-and-wife team, whom it accused of working as assets for Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service, better known as MI6.

According to the MSS statement, the husband, whose last name is Wang, participated in a student exchange program in the United Kingdom in 2015. While there, he was surreptitiously accosted by MI6 and was invited to dinners and other outings. Eventually Wang was offered part-time employment as a consultant for a British firm that operated as a front for MI6. He was eventually approached by MI6 directly and was recruited as a spy in exchange for substantial monetary rewards.

Wang was allegedly trained in espionage tradecraft and returned to China to collect intelligence on the Chinese government on behalf of MI6. The MSS claims that Wang’s MI6 handlers asked him to recruit his wife, whose last name is Zhou, as a spy. Eventually both Wang and Zhou spied for MI6 in return for money. It is not known whether the alleged spies worked for the MSS or another intelligence-related government agency.

The MSS press statement was issued a few days after the agency unveiled a seemingly unconnected case of espionage involving “a former government employee who was lured by a foreign intelligence agency through the internet” and “stole secrets for money”. The MSS also said that the man’s handler, named Xiao Jing, had been arrested and charged with operating as “a spy working for a foreign intelligence agency”.

► Author: Ian Allen | Date: 03 June 2024 | Permalink

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German intelligence agencies discuss ongoing espionage and hybrid challenges

May 6, 2024 by 1 Comment

Conference AgendaTHE 5TH SYMPOSIUM ON the Law of Intelligence Services (Symposium zum Recht der Nachrichtendienste) took place in Berlin, Germany, on March 21-22. In view of the public criticism that German intelligence agencies have faced in recent times, it was probably a relief for their officials to be able to talk more-or-less among themselves for once.

The event (see agenda in .pdf) was organized by the Federal Ministry of the Interior and the Federal Chancellery Office. This year’s topic was: “Intelligence Agencies and Armed Conflicts”. It included the tried and tested mix of academics —predominantly legal scholars—, practitioners and heads of various government authorities. The majority of the external experts discussed the complicated and, in Germany, arduous parliamentary procedures that would arise in the event of a war.

In view of the controls increasingly being placed on German intelligence agencies by various bodies and authorities —which were also represented at the symposium— a certain discrepancy became apparent repeatedly in the presentations: How can the German intelligence agencies react adequately and quickly to hybrid threats when these types of threat do not concern themselves with administrative-legal subtleties and parliamentary procedures? Although the concept of hybrid threats was generally taken for granted and therefore hardly discussed in terms of content, those present agreed at a minimum that disinformation is part of it. All the more worrying was the statement by one speaker who explained that there was no official definition of disinformation within the German security authorities’ legal codes.

In the discussion, the panel moderated by Center for Intelligence Service Training and Further Education (ZNAF), the common training and study location of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) and the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), clearly stood out and underscored that this relatively new institution has made a name for itself in the academic intelligence landscape since its establishment in 2019.

However, the symposium also showed that the German security bureaucracy tends to reach its limits when it comes to current developments in the unconventional domain. This was demonstrated, for example, by a speaker’s demand that hybrid risks ought to be assigned to a “state area of responsibility”. The problem, however, lies precisely in the statelessness of hybrid risks. The existing regulations are also proving to be counterproductive, in view of the challenges: there would simply be highly heterogeneous participants in the so-called Cyber Defense Centre, which would also include police authorities. However, due to the strict separation in the legal domain, personal data cannot simply be passed on from the BND to the Federal Police, for example. Read more of this post

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Tradecraft observations on the Reichenbach/Fischer espionage case

May 3, 2024 by 3 Comments

Germany ReichstagSEVERAL CASES OF CHINESE espionage have been announced recently in Europe. Thomas Reichenbach and Herwig and Ina Fischer —a married couple— were arrested on April 22, 2024, for illegal exports of dual use technology with military (naval) applications.

Reichenbach lists himself as a contract marketing manager for the Hong Kong Trade Development Council. He studied at Peking University in the mid-1980s. He worked in China, speaks Mandarin, and has a Chinese wife.

Herwig and Ina Fischer own a small engineering consulting company named Innovative Dragon in Duesseldorf. Both have travelled extensively in China. Innovative Dragon contracts for technical research with universities. Herwig studied mechanical engineering and aircraft and spacecraft construction at the Rhine-Westphalia Higher Technical School, focusing on guidance technology and composite fiber materials. The company headquarters are in London and there are offices in Duesseldorf and Shanghai (Donghua University Science and Technology Park). The London office does not appear to have a functioning telephone number.

Reichenbach is suspected of having been recruited by the Ministry of State Security (MSS) in China. The German government has accused the trio of having illegally exported dual use technology since at least 2022. At the time of the arrests, the suspects were in negotiations on additional research projects useful for expanding the combat strength of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy.

Status: Alleged

Tradecraft observations:

  1. Use of a potential front company in London to facilitate allegedly illegal exports.
  2. Use of third countries to facilitate allegedly illegal exports.
  3. Reichenbach allegedly recruited Herwig and Ina Fischer and handled them as in-country assets.
  4. It is alleged that the MSS probably recruited Reichenbach in China.
  5. An MSS officer allegedly handled Reichenbach from China (linear control).
  6. The MSS allegedly funded the operation through front companies.

► Author: Nicholas Eftimiades* | Date: 03 May 2024 | Permalink

* Nicholas Eftimiades is a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council. He retired from a 34-year government career that included employment in the United States Central Intelligence Agency, the Department of State, and the Defense Intelligence Agency. He held appointments on the Department of Defense’s Defense Science Board and the Economic Security Subcommittee of the Department of Homeland Security’s Homeland Security Advisory Council. He is an advisor to the United States Intelligence Community. Eftimiades authored numerous works on China’s espionage methods. His books, Chinese Intelligence Operations (1994) and Chinese Espionage: Operations and Tactics (2020) are examinations of the structure, operations, and methodology of China’s intelligence services. They are widely regarded as seminal works in the field.

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Germany arrests sixth alleged spy in less than a month

April 29, 2024 by 1 Comment

MSS ChinaAUTHORITIES IN GERMANY HAVE arrested a sixth person in less than a month, in connection with three separate cases of espionage orchestrated by Russian or Chinese intelligence. Last Tuesday, police in the east German city of Dresden arrested an assistant to a leading politician of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party (AfD). The assistant, who is a dual German-Chinese citizen, is accused of spying for Chinese intelligence, while the far-right politician who employed him is also being investigated, according to reports.

German news reports have identified the alleged spy as Jian Guo, 43, who lives in Dresden with his wife and children. Guo reportedly entered Germany as a student and stayed there after completing his studies, eventually becoming a naturalized German citizen. In 2019 he joined the staff of the office of Maximilian Krah, a senior AfD politician, who had recently been elected to the European Parliament.

According to the German prosecutor’s office, Guo had begun working for Chinese intelligence prior to joining Krah’s office as an assistant. At least some of his alleged espionage activities involved posing as a critic of the Chinese government and joining dissident groups of Chinese expatriates in Germany. He would then provide information about the activities of these groups to Chinese intelligence, according to his indictment. The latter described Guo’s intelligence activity as “an especially severe case” of espionage.

Meanwhile, German authorities are also reportedly investigating Krah himself over payments he allegedly received from pro-Chinese and pro-Russian individuals or groups. In a statement issued late last week, the AfD politician said he had been informed about Guo’s arrest from media reports and that he had no information about this case. Shortly after Krah’s statement, the AfD described Guo’s arrest as “highly disturbing” and added that party authorities would do “everything possible to aid the investigation”.

During the month of April alone, Germany has arrested no fewer than six individuals in a series of apparently unconnected cases of espionage, connected with Russia or China. Two of these individuals are German citizens of Russian origin, who were allegedly assisting Russian intelligence plan acts of sabotage against military installations located on German soil. Three other German citizens were allegedly planning to provide designs of advanced aircraft engines to Chinese intelligence officials.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 29 April 2024 | Permalink

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Notes on the assassination of Iranian IRGC Commander Hassan Mahdawi

April 26, 2024 by 2 Comments

IRGC - ABTHE TARGETED KILLING OF Hassan Mahdawi, a high-ranking member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and the commander of the Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon, was carried out by Israel on April 1, 2024. The actual assassination was based on precise operational intelligence, while Israel’s assessment of Iran’s response was wrong.

On the day of the attack, a building adjacent to the Iranian Embassy in the Syrian capital of Damascus was attacked with rockets. The attack killed seven IRGC members: General Muhammad Reza Zahedi, also known as Hassan Mahdawi, his deputy, and five additional officers. Mahdawi is the most senior Iranian commander to be killed since the assassination of IRGC Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani by the United States in 2020.

Mahdawi had close ties with Hezbollah. He maintained a close relationship with Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and was perceived by Israel to be directly coordinating the military attacks on Israel from Lebanon and Syria. In Tehran’s collective memory, Israel’s history of attacks against it includes numerous strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, assassinations of scientists within Iran, and actions against Iranian proxies in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. Traditionally, these attacks have been invariably met with attacks by Iran’s proxies in the region.

This time, it was different. Iran recognized Mahdawi’s assassination as a direct attack on Iran that it could not tolerate, and had to respond to differently. Just days following Mahdawi’s assassination, Iran attacked Israel. According to the Israel Defense Forces, 99 percent of the more than 330 weapons fired at Israel (including at least 185 drones and 110 surface-to-surface missiles) were intercepted, mostly over the territory of countries adjacent to Israel. Iran’s attack on Israel was unprecedented. It was launched directly from Iranian territory in contrast to prior cases, when Iran has used its proxies, supposedly leaving its hands clean.

Israel could not tolerate such a blatant infringement on its sovereignty. After Israeli officials vowed a response to the Iranian attack, the Jewish State counter-attacked, causing minor damage to the Eighth Shekari Air Base in northwest Esfahan, a dozen kilometers from the Natanz nuclear facility. It was a calculated response designed to deliver a message to Iran that Israel could and would respond to an attack. Following Israel’s counterattack, the tensions between Iran and Israel have subsided for the time being.

While the attack on General Mahdawi was based on excellent operational intelligence, it became evident that the Israeli assessment regarding a possible Iranian response was erroneous. The Israeli assessment was that the Iranian response would be similar to what occurred in the past —namely limited attacks by Hezbollah on northern Israel and attacks on the Golan heights by Iranian proxies in Syria. Israel simply did not anticipate a direct Iranian attack on Israel from Iranian territory.

It seems that Israeli senior analysts were entangled in a conception of Iran’s past behavior and anticipated that Tehran’s response would be similar to prior cases, namely utilizing Iran’s proxies. Israel did not pay enough attention to the difference between Mahdawi’s assassination and previous attacks against Iran. This time, the attack targeted the Iranian embassy in Damascus and the target was a very senior official, who was close to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

It appears that Israel’s assessment of the Iranian response to Mahdawi’s assassination was a strategic failure. It appears more likely that the Israeli War Cabinet was provided with an incorrect assessment by the nation’s intelligence community, and less likely that it was provided with an incorrect assessment, which it then decided to ignore. There is concern in Israel that the intelligence assessment was once again wrong, after the colossal failure to anticipate the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas.

► Author: Avner Barnea | Date: 26 April 2024 | Permalink

Dr. Avner Barnea is research fellow at the National Security Studies Center of the University of Haifa in Israel. He served as a senior officer in the Israel Security Agency (ISA). He is the author of We Never Expected That: A Comparative Study of Failures in National and Business Intelligence (Lexington Books, 2021).

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Poland and Germany charge Russian operatives with assassination, sabotage plots

April 22, 2024 by 4 Comments

Rzeszów-Jasionka AirportAUTHORITIES IN GERMANY and Poland have charged three individuals with working on behalf of Russian military intelligence in planning acts of sabotage and assassination on European soil. One of the plots allegedly involved an effort to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Another aimed to sabotage commercial airport facilities that are being managed by the United States military.

Polish and Ukrainian authorities announced last week the arrest of Paweł K., a Polish citizen, who is believed to have been engaged in collecting information about the security of the Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport. Located in southeastern Poland, Rzeszów-Jasionka is a relatively small provincial airport. Its proximity to the Ukrainian border has made it central to efforts by Kyiv’s allies to supply it with war materiel following the expansion of Russia’s occupation of Ukraine in February 2022. Military supplies are transported to Rzeszów-Jasionka from across the world and then transferred across the Ukrainian border with trucks. Additionally, many high-level meetings between Ukrainian and Western officials take place at the airport. The United States military is currently providing security at the Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport.

Polish authorities said last week that Paweł K. was part of a Russian intelligence collection operation that was “intended to assist in the planning of a potential assassination of a foreign state leader”, namely President Zelenskyy. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said it informed its Polish counterpart agency about the assassination plot, which had been foiled “as a result of the close co-operation” between Ukrainian and Polish intelligence. Paweł K. is not a diplomat and thus has no immunity from prosecution in Poland. If convicted, therefore, he could face up to eight years in prison.

In a seemingly unconnected development, police in the southeastern German state of Bavaria arrested two dual German-Russian nationals, who have been charged with planning to sabotage military and industrial facilities on German soil. The plot appears to be part of broader Russian efforts to disrupt the production and delivery of military aid to Ukraine. At least one of the locations that the suspects are accused of targeting is a local military base under the command of the United States. The two suspects have been identified as Dieter S., 39, and Alexander J., 37. Both were arrested in the small city of Bayreuth.

Germany’s Federal Foreign Office, led by Minister Annalena Baerbock, summoned Sergei Nechayev, Russian Ambassador to Berlin, shortly after the arrest of Dieter S. and Alexander J. Some media reports noted the “unusually hasty” way Nechayev was summoned, which may indicate that German authorities have acquired “unequivocal proof of the link between the plot and the Kremlin”. An announcement made by the Russian embassy in Berlin confirmed that Nechayev had been summoned in connection to the arrests, but added that the ambassador had been presented with “no proof” that the two suspects were connected with Russian intelligence or that they had planned acts of sabotage.

► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 22 April 2024 | Permalink

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Austria: Arrest raises broader questions about counterintelligence capabilities

April 10, 2024 by 6 Comments

BVT AustriaON GOOD FRIDAY, MARCH 29, Egisto Ott, a former member of Austria’s now-dissolved domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution and Counterterrorism (BVT), was arrested in his house in Carinthia, Austria’s southernmost state. Ott had frequently been at the center of media attention in the past year, in connection with the network surrounding the fugitive financier and alleged spy Jan Maršálek, as well as alleged misconduct relating to carrying out illegal investigations of persons. Ott also seems to have been involved in an alleged attempt to create an intelligence unit, or even an entire shadow intelligence service, embedded inside Austria’s foreign ministry. Now the veteran police and intelligence officer stands accused by the state attorney of abusing his authority and of being part of an “intelligence activity to the disadvantage of Austria” —the only form of spying that is illegal under § 256 of the Austrian criminal code.

Ott’s arrest came several years after intelligence was first shared with Austria by Western partner services —allegedly the Central Intelligence Agency— that reportedly date from as early as November 2017. Back then, Ott allegedly received classified material from his service’s email address to his personal Gmail account. However, Peter Gridling, director of the BVT from 2008 until its dissolution in 2021, stated in a recent interview that the ensuing investigations did not yield actionable results that could be used in criminal proceedings. This statement is highly interesting, as Gridling filed accusations about Ott with the State Prosecutor’s Office himself, and would hardly have done unless he had access to hard evidence. Ott was consequently removed from the BVT and placed in Police Academy Austria (SIAK), which is responsible for training police officers and conducts research related to police and domestic security.

Nevertheless, according to media reporting, Ott seems to have kept and illegally used certain forms of identification that presented him as a police officer. He is also alleged to have maintained access to several police databases and to have retained his network of trusted informants that provided him with intelligence. These included contacts in friendly foreign police services, whom Ott knew from his time as a liaison officer in Italy and Turkey. According to Gridling, these contacts were unaware that Ott had been removed from the BVT under suspicion of being unreliable and potentially even working for Russia. They therefore continued to help him when asked. Ott allegedly deceived his contacts by claiming that he needed information on cases relating to different kinds of extremism. As it turned out, according to the leaked arrest warrant, several of the individuals referred to by Ott as “suspects” in terrorism investigations were in fact Russian dissidents or intelligence defectors who were living as protected persons in Austria and elsewhere outside Russia.

It appears highly probable that Ott also had people inside the Austrian bureaucracy, including former colleagues in the BVT, who continued to provide him with information and assistance, even after the first allegations against him arose in 2017. As of now, at least one other officer from LVT Vienna (the state unit of the BVT) has been found to have illegally provided Ott with Information. It is likely, given the publicly available descriptions of Ott’s activities, that other individuals may be implicated. It also remains to be seen whether individuals involved in this case were able to join the BVT’s successor agency, the new Directorate of State Protection and Intelligence (DSN). Read more of this post

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Interview reveals state of mind of Israeli intelligence prior to October 7 attack

April 1, 2024 by 4 Comments

Israeli General Staff MilitaryON MARCH 23, CHANNEL 12 of Israeli television aired a remarkable interview with Sassi Elya, the former director of technology at the Israel Security Agency (ISA). Better known by the acronyms Shin Bet or Shabak, the ISA is Israel’s domestic security service. The interview had initially been scheduled for broadcast as part of the evening news on October 7, 2023. However, its airing was canceled due to the attack on Israel by Hamas, which occurred that morning.

But on March 23, after about 5 months, Channel 12 aired the original interview with Elya. The retired official spoke with glee about the advanced technological capabilities developed by the ISA in order to prevent terrorist attacks against Israel. Elya said Israeli intelligence had built a unique system, known as “the Tool”, which allegedly provided intimate knowledge about the life of every Palestinian living in the West Bank and Gaza. This technologically advanced surveillance system allegedly monitored every move of its targets, all for the purpose of preventing potential terrorist attacks against the Jewish state. Elya claimed that, as a result of this advanced technological system, there was no chance that Israel would be surprised by Palestinian militants. This system was so advanced, he said, that intelligence agencies from all over the world were coming to Israel to learn about it.

Thanks to Channel 12, we can now examine Elya’s interview retrospectively, and especially in light of the ISA’s poor performance on October 7, as well as its failure to warn Israeli authorities about Hamas’ preparations for the attack. Notably, Elya was interviewed again for the same television program. Predictably, he admitted that his prior assessment had been wrong and regretted being so overly confident about the technology.

This case demonstrates the overestimation by Israeli intelligence of its own capabilities, because of arrogance and over-confidence. This approach refutes the basic premise of intelligence work: be skeptical and be modest. Furthermore, this case highlights that Israeli intelligence agencies overly relied on technology (SIGINT) in the lead-up to October 7, while seemingly neglecting the low-tech activity of gathering information through human intelligence (HUMINT).

The system that Elya described in his initial interview as the ultimate counterintelligence tool was reportedly criticized internally by some in the ISA for gathering huge amounts of information without offering sufficient analytical capability. This imbalance between collection and analysis can render an entire surveillance system practically useless. The bottom line is that, almost by accident, we are now aware of the state of mind that the ISA was in before the sudden attack by Hamas on October 7, which cost so many lives as a result of the ISA’s complacency.

► Author: Avner Barnea | Date: 01 April 2024 | Permalink

Dr. Avner Barnea is research fellow at the National Security Studies Center of the University of Haifa in Israel. He served as a senior officer in the Israel Security Agency (ISA). He is the author of We Never Expected That: A Comparative Study of Failures in National and Business Intelligence (Lexington Books, 2021).

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Opinion: Fumbling Russian spies fail to stop ISIS-K attack, despite warnings from U.S.

March 25, 2024 by 7 Comments

Crocus City Hall attackNO COUNTRY HAS BETTER intelligence on the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (known as ISIS-K) than the United States. American forces have faced ISIS-K almost from the moment the group was founded in 2015 in Pakistan, just a few miles from the Afghan border. It was there that a group of disaffected members of the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP, commonly referred to as the Pakistani Taliban) began turning their backs on al-Qaeda, which they saw as a failing brand, and joined the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

By 2017, ISIS-K had begun to draw to its ranks hundreds of fighters from central and south Asia, who were inspired by the group’s goal of establishing an Islamic caliphate in the lands of the greater Khorasan. The term refers to a historical region that extends from eastern Iran and Turkmenistan, to the mountains of Kyrgyzstan, containing all of present-day Afghanistan, most of Uzbekistan, and even some parts of the Russian Caucasus. Like the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) during its heyday, ISIS-K aspires to establish control over a territorially unified entity and then use perpetual war to expand its influence in central Asia and beyond.

Until 2021, the biggest obstacle to ISIS-K’s plan for regional domination was the U.S. By some accounts, American forces and Western-trained Afghan commando units had managed to eliminate more than half of ISIS-K’s 4,000-strong base in northeastern Afghanistan. Since the hurried U.S. withdrawal from the country in 2021 (which was marred by an ISIS-K suicide bombing that killed nearly 200 people, including 13 U.S. troops), ISIS-K has expanded its reach beyond all prior measure. The group has since claimed responsibility for attacks in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and now Russia, that have killed over 600 people and injured thousands.

A primary reason for the proliferation of ISIS-K’s terrorist activity is that the U.S., which has more intelligence than anyone on the group, issues warnings that are not being taken into consideration by the group’s primary targets, namely Afghanistan, Iran, and Russia. Indeed, despite the Washington’s best efforts, its warnings about pending ISIS-K attacks have been ignored by the group’s primary targets. A few days after an ISIS-K attack killed nearly 100 people in Kerman, Iran, The Wall Street Journal claimed the U.S. government had provided Tehran with “a private warning” of an imminent terrorist threat from ISIS-K. If that is true, then the Iranians clearly did not heed Washington’s warning.

It now appears that, once again, Washington had considerable intelligence insight into ISIS-K’s plans to strike inside Russia. On March 7, the U.S. embassy in Russia warned on its website that “extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts”. The warning provided no specifics. However, seeing how U.S. authorities issued private warnings to Iran, a country with which the U.S. has no diplomatic relations, then it is highly likely they provided similar information to Russia, which at least hosts American diplomats and intelligence officers on its soil. Yet, not only did the Russians ignore these warnings, but they openly dismissed them. Read more of this post

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