Analysis: The fate of Russia’s military bases in Syria seems highly uncertain
December 9, 2024 1 Comment
THERE ARE CONFLICTING REPORTS about the fate of Russia’s military bases in Syria, following the complete collapse of the 54-year-long Assad dynasty. Late on Sunday it was announced on Russian state media that the Kremlin had extended Bashar al-Assad and his family political asylum “on humanitarian grounds”. Attention quickly turned to the fate of the Russian embassy in the capital Damascus and the Russian military facilities in Tartous and Khmeimim.
It is difficult to overstate the strategic significance of the Russian military facilities in Syria, some of which date as far back as 1971, when Hafez al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad’s father, assumed power in the country. The Russian naval base in Tartous is currently the only Russian military
facility outside of the former Soviet Union. Furthermore, it constitutes the sole warm-port fueling and repair facility that is exclusively available to the Russian Navy. It is home to the Russian naval group in Syria, which consists of a submarine and five warships.
Likewise, the Khmeimim Air Base in Syria’s Latakia province is home to dozens of Russian fighter jets, which have been stationed there since 2015, ostensibly in order to protect the Syrian government from the Islamic State. However, Russia regularly uses the Khmeimim Air Base to transport troops and war materiel to Africa, and to project air power in the Mediterranean, through the presence of several bomber aircraft. The latter can be found, not only in the Khmeimim Air Base, but also in the Syrian military airports of Homs and Palmyra.
But these two military airports are now in the hands of the Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) forces that have captured much of Syria in the past two weeks. It is doubtful that the Russian Aerospace Forces will be able to use them from now on. Moreover, there are reports that Moscow will be forced to engage in a strategic withdrawal of the entirety of its military forces from Syria within hours, if not days.
On Sunday, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a dismissive statement claiming that, although Russian troops in Syria had been placed on high alert, “no serious threat to their security” had been detected. According to the Reuters news agency, the Russian government had been in communication with the leadership of the HTS leadership for several days. As a result of this communication, an agreement had allegedly been struck, which guaranteed “the safety of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions in Syria”. Read more of this post
DANIEL KHALIFE, A BRITISH soldier who spied for Iran, has been found guilty of espionage and terrorism, in a case that has revealed serious vulnerabilities in the British security clearance-vetting system. The then-20-year-old Khalife was arrested in January 2022 while serving on active duty in Staffordshire, in Britain’s Midlands region. He was charged with violating the Official Secrets Act 1911 and the Terrorism Act 2000.
THE WHITE HOUSE HELD an emergency meeting on Friday with senior telecommunications industry officials to discuss the fallout from a Chinese cyber espionage operation
RUSSIA’S NEED TO GATHER intelligence from Scandinavian targets has increased considerably since Finland and Sweden joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), prompting Moscow to seek nontraditional means of collecting intelligence, according to Finland’s spy agency. A new
THE ISRAEL SECURITY AGENCY (ISA) recently
A HIGHLY ANTICIPATED REVIEW of the European Union’s intelligence readiness to face conventional and hybrid threats has called for the establishment of a dedicated Europe-wide intelligence agency. Such an agency must rely on EU member states “trust[ing] each other” in order to confront increasingly aggressive espionage, sabotage, and other types of threats by outside actors like Russia, the report said.
THE ISRAELI SECURITY AGENCY (ISA) has announced the
AUTHORITIES IN BRITAIN AND Germany are reportedly investigating the possibility that the Russian intelligence services may be behind two fires that occurred in shipping warehouses last summer. The fires occurred in late July in facilities belonging to DHL, a German logistics firm headquartered in Bonn.
AN AFGHAN NATIONAL BASED in the United States, who was allegedly planning to carry out a terrorist attack during the upcoming Election Day, previously worked for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) as a guard, reports claim.
LEAKED INFORMATION PUBLISHED BY leading German media outlets has revealed Russia’s plans for an influence campaign targeting Israel. The information was leaked earlier this month by the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung and German television stations Norddeutscher Rundfunk (NDR) and Westdeutscher Rundfunk (WDR), as well as by
parliament— would support a possible transfer of military aid to Ukraine.
THE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT of Commerce is proposing new regulations that seek to ban the sale of Chinese-made cars in the United States, over concerns that they could be used for espionage or sabotage. Several
THE GOVERNMENTS OF SPAIN and the United States have strongly rejected allegations they were involved in an operation that aimed to kill leading Venezuelan officials, including the country’s President Nicolás Maduro. The
ON JUNE 26, THE longwinded case of Austria’s counter intelligence failure regarding a possible inside threat took yet another —quite surprising— turn: the state court of Vienna (Landesgericht Wien) released from pre-trial detention (Untersuchungshaft)
Tatverdacht) against Ott, the reasons for his further detention were not sufficiently given. In the judges’ view, all activities that could carry a pre-trial detention were committed before Ott was arrested and released for the first time in 2021. Back then, Ott had also been released after a short detention, following a decision by the same court. Briefly summarized, in 2021 the Landesgericht concluded that Ott could no longer spy against Austria as he did not have access to classified information, having been removed from the domestic intelligence agency years earlier. Additionally, since the BVT was in the process of reorganization and reformation at that point, the judges
TANG YUANJUN WAS 






Mounting concern in the EU about Indian black operations targeting dissidents
December 11, 2024 by intelNews 1 Comment
Somewhat-less-black operations, in which individuals —usually living abroad— are not killed, but intimidated, persecuted, threatened, or roughed up, appear to be increasingly utilized as a tool by certain states that have little tolerance for domestic political opposition. Ken McCallum, Director General of Britain’s Security Service (MI5), stated on 8 October 2024 that, “since January 2022, with police partners, we have responded to twenty Iran-backed plots presenting potentially lethal threats to British citizens and UK residents”.
Back in September 2023, The Guardian reported having spoken to 15 Iranian activists living in the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland and Sweden, who were being persecuted and intimidated, or had been threatened in various ways by the Iranian regime’s henchmen and its intelligence services. There are numerous similar examples of journalists and dissidents who have been a thorn in the side of the Turkish government for several years now. In addition to threats and violence, there are reports of abductions by Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT). In recent years, China too has increasingly relied on intimidation directly in the West, and has also engaged Western investigators and helpers for this purpose.
One concerning development is the fact that these states are apparently increasingly resorting to the help of members of Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs (OMCG), members of drug cartels, and other criminals. Regardless of whether it is for purposes of sabotage, threats, or assassinations,
shady figures —typically apolitical— are undertaking missions on behalf of the intelligence agencies of authoritarian states on European soil.
The Case of India
Another country that has been in the spotlight for some time is India, which has historically maintained a low profile in the West, in terms of black operations. Western intelligence agencies could have predicted that there would be an escalation —i.e. Indian black operations on Western soil— which could lead to the liquidation of alleged or actual terrorists. If one observes the reports of Indian intelligence agencies and analysts on the activities of its mortal enemy, Pakistan, and its intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), it quickly becomes apparent that India is less and less willing to tolerate what it regards as terrorism sponsored by Pakistan. This applies particularly to individuals and organizations operating from abroad. Read more of this post
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