In rare public comments, Taiwan spy chief points to 2027 as key in China’s plans
May 5, 2023 1 Comment
IN A SERIES OF rare public comments, the director of Taiwan’s primary intelligence agency has singled out 2027 as a year of paramount significance for China’s military plans for Taiwan. On Thursday, Tsai Ming-yen (pictured), director-general of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau (NSB) since February, spoke to an audience of graduating students at Taiwan’s National Chung Hsing University in Taichung City. According to reports, it was the first time in a quarter of a century that an NSB director-general had addressed a university audience.
In addition to his speech at the Chung Hsing University, Director-General Tsai, a former deputy foreign minister and diplomat, gave a rare interview to the United States-based Bloomberg news agency. He refused to weigh in on the ongoing discussion about a timeframe for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But he singled out the year 2027 as a significant one for Chinese Premier Xi Jinping’s plans to modernize the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
The Chinese leader first introduced his “PLA Modernization 2035” plan in 2017, describing it as a whole-of-government effort to significantly improve the PLA’s combat capabilities as a step toward achieving China’s long-term goal of becoming a major global military power. Tsai pointed out that the year 2027 will be the 10-year mark into President Xi’s 18-year program of military reforms. Additionally, Xi will most likely be campaigning for a fourth presidential term that year, Tsai said.
In his interview with Bloomberg, Tsai said that President Xi “doesn’t allow any kind of different voice in the Chinese political system”. In essence, therefore, the Chinese leader has been surrounding himself with “a coterie of like-minded officials”. This resulting ‘groupthink’ means that “the risk of making a wrong decision” on pressing issues like Taiwan “will become much higher” in the coming years, he warned. To counter that threat, and to monitor China’s military intentions, Tsai said Taiwan is systematically deepening its real-time cooperation with its “international friends”, especially with the so-called “Five Eyes” alliance, an intelligence-sharing coalition comprising of the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
In a separate development, the United States Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said on Thursday that the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (TSMC) would be a major cause for concern in a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The United States and other countries rely overwhelmingly on the TSMC’s production output for the use of semiconductors in civilian and military hardware. Should a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan prevent the TSMC from producing those semiconductors, the resulting impact on the global economy would be “enormous”, possibly in the neighborhood of “between $600 billion to $1 trillion on an annual basis for the first few years”, Haines said.
► Author: Joseph Fitsanakis | Date: 05 May 2023 | Permalink
OFFICIALS IN UKRAINE HAVE
Russia’s border with Belarus, two trains were
AUTHORITIES IN POLAND HAVE seized an abandoned school building in the Polish capital Warsaw, allegedly because it was being used as a base for espionage activities by the Russian government. Following the seizure of the building complex, Russian officials issued stern but vague warnings, saying that action will be taken in response to what they termed as an “act of provocation” by the Polish government.
AN AUSTRALIAN HIGH COURT has released the sentencing remarks in an unprecedented closed-door trial of an intelligence officer, identified only as “Witness J”, who was convicted in 2019 of a crime that cannot be revealed. The man, who is also known as “Prisoner 123458,” was given a jail sentence in November of 2019. His sentencing came following a closed-door hearing, which was described by a judge as “generally undesirable” and “unusual”. The very existence of the court case
THE UNITED STATES HAS arrested two residents of New York City for allegedly conspiring to create and operate a clandestine police station run by the Chinese government in the borough of Manhattan. The arrests come a month after authorities in Canada launched an
AN AUSTRALIAN BUSINESSMAN, WHO has worked in China for over two decades, is facing up to 15 years in prison for allegedly selling secrets to two foreign intelligence officers. The businessman, Alexander Csergo, 55, grew up in Sydney, but moved to China in 2002 and currently works for a digital solutions firm in Shanghai. According to
A NEW REPORT PUBLISHED by a London-based security think-tank concludes that Russia has employed unconventional operations effectively to subdue the population in occupied areas of Ukraine. These successes contrast sharply with the inferior performance of Russia’s conventional military forces, as revealed last week in a series of leaked documents belonging to the United States Department of Defense.
A POWERFUL EXPLOSION, LIKELY caused by a bomb hidden inside a decorative figurine, has killed one of the most prominent pro-Kremlin bloggers as he was giving a public talk in downtown St. Petersburgh, Russia. The bomb killed Maxim Fomin, 40, who was known in online blogger circles under the pseudonym Vladlen Tatarsky. Born in eastern Ukraine, Fomin supported the pro-Russian secessionist movement in the Donbas. By 2021, when he obtained Russian citizenship, he had already made a name for himself as a pro-Kremlin military blogger on the Telegram social media platform.
A RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE OPERATIVE, who lived in Maryland using forged Brazilian identity documents, has been charged with espionage and other crimes by the United States Department of Justice. Victor Muller Ferreira, a Brazilian national, was stopped from entering the Netherlands in June of last year, where he had intended to join the International Criminal Court (ICC) as an intern.
GREEK INTELLIGENCE OFFICIALS ANNOUNCED late last week that they had uncovered the identity of a female Russian spy who lived in central Athens using a set of forged identity documents. According to the Greek National Intelligence Service (NIS/EYP), the case is under investigation by several Western intelligence agencies. Additionally, there seems to be a connection with Brazil where the Russian spy’s husband lived until recently, using forged identity papers.
AUTHORITIES IN CANADA ARE reportedly probing claims that the Chinese government is operating at least two “clandestine police stations” in Montreal, which allegedly monitor the activities of Chinese citizens and Canadians of Chinese origin. The announcement comes less than four months after a similar
THE SPIRALING SOCIAL UNREST in Israel and the Palestinian Territories may harm longstanding intelligence-sharing agreements between Israel and its Western allies, including the United States, according to reports. Historically, intelligence-sharing partnerships between Israel and its closest ally, the United States, have tended to remain largely unaffected by regional upheavals. This time, however, some Israeli officials are concerned that the Israeli-American intelligence relationship is “under a question mark and under great tension”.
THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION has called on the United States and China to share what they know about the source of the COVID-19 pandemic. The call, made by WHO’s Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus and others, came days after United States Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Christopher Wray said in a television interview that COVID-19 “most likely” originated from a Chinese government laboratory.






Russian pro-Kremlin influencer survives IED attack that killed fellow passenger
May 8, 2023 by Joseph Fitsanakis 1 Comment
A HIGHLY INFLUENTIAL NATIONALIST AUTHOR
After decommissioning from the National Guard, Prilepin joined a host of ultra-nationalist Russian street gangs, including the National Bolshevik Party (currently banned), a group that aspired to bring together Russia’s far-left and far-right militants. At the same time, Prilepin began writing about his war experiences in novels that explored broader nationalist themes in Russian history. Today, Prilepin is highly influential in Russian social media circles, and many of his books have been turned into popular films.
Prilepin’s popularity soared after 2014, when he publicly endorsed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military campaign in Crimea. His decision to back the Russian president formed an informal link between supporters of the Russian president and members of banned nationalist groups like the National Bolshevik Party. In the ensuing years, Prilepin has chronicled his work as an armed volunteer with pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. This resulted to the Ukrainian government including his name on a list of Russian citizens that it deemed as threats to national security.
THE BOMBING
The apparent attack on Prilepin took place on Saturday near the tiny settlement of Pionerskoye, in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region. Prilepin is believed to have family relatives in this rural part of the country, which is located over 250 miles east of Moscow. According to statements by Russian emergency services personnel, a radio-controlled improvised explosive device was detonated under Prilepin’s Audi Q7 passenger car, instantly killing his fellow passenger, who has not been named. Read more of this post
Filed under Expert news and commentary on intelligence, espionage, spies and spying Tagged with assassinations, ATESH Resistance Movement, News, Russia, Ukraine, Yevgeny Nikolayevich Prilepin, Yevgeny Prilepin, Zakhar Prilepin