Opinion: Five months into the war, Israeli intelligence failure looks even worse
March 11, 2024 4 Comments
SINCE OCTOBER 7, 2024, when Israel was caught off guard by a sudden and highly damaging attack from Hamas, more information has surfaced regarding why there was no prior warning about the attack and the failures of Israeli intelligence in this regard.
It has become clear that Israeli intelligence miscalculated Hamas’s intentions. The Israeli security concept, spearheaded by the Israel Military Intelligence (IMI) and the Israel Security Agency (ISA), was that: (a) Hamas had been deterred from launching large-scale attacks; and (b) Hamas was focused on carrying out terrorist attacks against Israelis in the West Bank and not on Israel proper. This flawed security concept, which had been fully adopted by the Israeli cabinet and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) was proven to be groundless. In fact, Hamas successfully exploited it in order to develop and accelerate its attack strategy.
One significant reason for the failure of the IDF, both in the area of intelligence collection and operationally, was its underestimation of the capabilities of Hamas and the intentions of its leader, Yahya Sinwar. There was also an overestimation by many in Israel, including the security establishment, of Israel’s own intelligence 
capabilities. Another important insight is that the counterintelligence structures inside Hamas were successful in preventing Israeli intelligence from recruiting agents who were close enough to Sinwar to be able to alert Israel about the impending attack. Furthermore, Israel’s collection and analysis of signals intelligence was unproductive, possibly because Hamas was successful in countering Israel’s ability to produce effective intelligence from signals intercepts.
As the IDF moved deeper into Gaza, and as more information was collected from Hamas facilities, it became clear that there were significant gaps in information regarding the preparations for the attack by Hamas inside Gaza. These preparations lasted for a long time and involved numerous operatives who remained undetected by Israeli intelligence. It looks like the compartmentation system inside Hamas, based on a need-to-know only model, was highly effective.
The IDF attacked the Gaza Strip in 2014 in Operation Protective Edge. Its mission was to destroy Hamas’s ability to carry out assaults against Israel through tunnels dug deep inside Gaza and crossing the border into Israel. Indeed, about 20 such tunnels were destroyed during that operation. Later, Hamas built 250 miles of new tunnels in Gaza that were aimed at defense and to hide combatants when Israel attacked. It has been suggested that this construction project was funded by cash sent to Gaza by Qatar, with Israel’s approval —though Qatar denies this claim. Read more of this post
THE RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE SERVICES have been “bolstering the[ir] architecture” aimed at stopping potential defectors and “liquidating” those who have already defected and are living in exile, according to a new report. In a 
A RETIRED SENIOR MOSSAD official has alleged that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly ignored, and even frustrated, efforts to stop the flow of hundreds of millions of dollars to Hamas. This inaction may have enabled the Palestinian militant group to plan, organize and execute Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, which killed over 1400 Israelis on October 7, 2023, and sparked the current war between Israel and Hamas.
AUTHORITIES IN IRELAND ARE systematically “freezing” applications for Russian diplomatic visas from Moscow over concerns that the Kremlin is using its embassy in Dublin as a base for espionage activities. In 2018, the Irish government introduced emergency legislation that canceled a previously approved expansion of the Russian diplomatic compound in the Irish capital, allegedly due to concerns about espionage activities by Russian diplomats. Three years later, 
AN AFGHAN-BORN MAN, who became a naturalized British citizen and worked for British intelligence for over a decade, is attempting to regain his British citizenship, which was revoked after he was accused of being a Russian spy. The man, who is identified in court documents only as “C2”, was born in Afghanistan and grew up under the Soviet occupation in the 1980s. When the Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan he left the country alongside the Russian forces and resettled in Russia, where he attended university and married a Russian woman.
AUTHORITIES IN INDIA HAVE arrested a security employee at the Indian High Commission in Russia, accusing him of spying for Pakistani intelligence. The embassy of India in Moscow is one of its largest in the world and is viewed as critical to New Delhi’s strategic relations with Russia. Employees that staff the Moscow embassy are highly vetted and typically represent the cream of the crop of India’s Ministry of External Affairs. It follows that news of the arrest of a Moscow embassy security employee on espionage charges must have raised eyebrows in India.
WILLIAM BURNS, DIRECTOR OF the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), reportedly visited in secret at least two East African nations last week, amidst growing tensions and instability in the region. The trip was confirmed by both the Kenyan and Somali governments after Burns had already returned to the United States.
NORTH KOREA APPEARS TO have suspended a long-standing radio station, known for broadcasting content targeted at South Koreans, which also aired encrypted messages intended for North Korean spies abroad. Radio Pyongyang was founded by Korean communist forces in the 1940s. In 1950 it formed part of the North Korean state’s official media propaganda arm.
THE OCTOBER 7 ATTACK on Israel was a total surprise. There was no warning. There were very few signs of a possible attack. Israeli intelligence evaluated these signs as elements of a routine military exercise by Hamas, and even assessed them as parts of an imaginary scenario. It therefore gave no warning to those Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) units that were stationed on the border with Gaza. Meanwhile, what we know about the intelligence failure of October 7 will likely pale before what the commission of inquiry will reveal once it is established. That was precisely what happened in the case of the Agranat Commission of Inquiry, which made significant revelations while investigating the intelligence failings of the IDF in the run up to the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
time, in the first two days of the conflict the IDF was confused and acted without direction, in the apparent absence of relevant action plans for what to do in the event of a massive invasion. The IDF was clearly not ready for such a scenario.
for those conclusions to become public. What is to be done in the meantime? There is public pressure to launch the inquiry soon.
IN AN UNPRECEDENTED AND potentially highly consequential decision, a judge has barred a Chinese PhD student from entering Canada over concerns he might be pressured to spy by the government of China. The case could have “ripple effects” on universities across Canada and possibly even all of North America, 
MIDDLE EAST OBSERVERS WERE hardly surprised by yesterday’s news of the apparent assassination of Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri in Lebanon. Not only was al-Arouri a 
Yesterday’s assassination at the very heart of Hezbollah’s lair was nothing short of a demonstration of the Mossad’s competency in special operations.
THE UNITED STATES CENTRAL Intelligence Agency (CIA) has sharply stepped up its activities on China, but Chinese espionage operations remain formidable and continue to pose challenges for American decision-makers, a new report claims. Citing “interviews with more than two dozen current and former American officials and a review of internal Chinese corporate documents and public [Chinese government] documents”, the New York Times 
A LONGTIME BELGIAN POLITICIAN worked as a spy for Chinese intelligence for at least three years, according to a joint investigation by a consortium of European news media. Until last week, the politician, Frank Creyelman, 62, was a leading member of Vlaams Belang, a far-right separatist party that draws nearly the entirety of its support from northern Belgium’s Dutch-speaking Flemish regions. In addition to seeking to separate Flanders from Belgium, Vlaams Belang opposes immigration and multiculturalism, with much of its criticism directed at Islam.
intelNews.org 
United States consistently underestimates Cuban intelligence, sources say
March 18, 2024 by Ian Allen 5 Comments
Among the strengths of the Cuban intelligence service is its ability to recruit Americans who are motivated by ideological reasons, rather than by financial gain. The Cubans have historically approached Americans at a young age, usually at universities in the United States or other countries in the Americas. They cultivate those relationships by employing strategic patience that pays off many years —even decades— later. By recruiting ideological sympathizers, the Cubans rarely need to pay their agents large amounts of money, as the cases of Defense Intelligence Agency analyst Ana Belén Montes and State Department diplomat Manuel Rocha suggest. Many Cuban agents enter military service in the United States, which means they acquire Secret or Top-Secret clearances. Others are instructed to penetrate anti-communist groups of Cuban-Americans in southern Florida, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The U.S. counterintelligence strategy prioritizes Russia and China, which means that Cuban intelligence operations are treated as “an afterthought,” claims the paper. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), America’s primary counterintelligence agency, dedicates relatively few resources to investigating Cuban intelligence. Its efforts are chronically “understaffed and outmatched” by Havana, according to former counterintelligence officers who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. The paper notes that the FBI is often aware of several dozen cases of “actual or potential” Cuban agents operating in the U.S. However, it routinely lacks the requisite resources to investigate them.
► Author: Ian Allen | Date: 18 March 2024 | Permalink
Filed under Expert news and commentary on intelligence, espionage, spies and spying Tagged with counterintelligence, Cuba, Dirección de Inteligencia (Cuba), News